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On the role of the estimation error in prediction of expected shortfall
Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics.
2013 (English)In: Journal of Banking & Finance, ISSN 0378-4266, Vol. 37, no 3, 847-853 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

In the estimation of risk measures such as Value at Risk and Expected shortfall relatively short estimation windows are typically used rendering the estimation error a possibly non-negligible component. In this paper we build upon previous results for the Value at Risk and discuss how the estimation error comes into play for the Expected Shortfall. We identify two important aspects where it may be of importance. On the one hand there is in the evaluation of predictors of the measure. On the other there is in the interpretation and communication of it. We illustrate magnitudes numerically and emphasize the practical importance of the latter aspect in an empirical application with stock market index data. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2013. Vol. 37, no 3, 847-853 p.
Keyword [en]
Backtesting, Delta method, Finance, GARCH, Risk management
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URN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-66770DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2012.10.013ISI: 000314380000014OAI: diva2:611385
Available from: 2013-03-15 Created: 2013-03-05 Last updated: 2013-03-15Bibliographically approved

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Lönnbark, Carl
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