umu.sePublications
Change search
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
Acute Fatal Effects of Short-Lasting Extreme Temperatures in Stockholm, Sweden: Evidence Across a Century of Change.
Umeå University, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Occupational and Environmental Medicine.
Umeå University, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Occupational and Environmental Medicine.
Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Population Studies (CPS). Ageing & Living Condit Programme, Umeå University.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-7439-002X
Umeå University, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Epidemiology and Global Health. Umeå University, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Occupational and Environmental Medicine.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-4030-0449
2013 (English)In: Epidemiology, ISSN 1044-3983, E-ISSN 1531-5487, Vol. 24, no 6, 820-829 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

BACKGROUND: Climate change is projected to increase the frequency of extreme weather events. Short-term effects of extreme hot and cold weather and their effects on mortality have been thoroughly documented, as have epidemiologic and demographic changes throughout the 20th century. We investigated whether sensitivity to episodes of extreme heat and cold has changed in Stockholm, Sweden, from the beginning of the 20th century until the present.

METHODS: We collected daily mortality and temperature data for the period 1901-2009 for present-day Stockholm County, Sweden. Heat extremes were defined as days for which the 2-day moving average of mean temperature was above the 98th percentile; cold extremes were defined as days for which the 26-day moving average was below the 2nd percentile. The relationship between extreme hot/cold temperatures and all-cause mortality, stratified by decade, sex, and age, was investigated through time series modeling, adjusting for time trends.

RESULTS: Total daily mortality was higher during heat extremes in all decades, with a declining trend over time in the relative risk associated with heat extremes, leveling off during the last three decades. The relative risk of mortality was higher during cold extremes for the entire period, with a more dispersed pattern across decades. Unlike for heat extremes, there was no decline in the mortality with cold extremes over time.

CONCLUSIONS: Although the relative risk of mortality during extreme temperature events appears to have fallen, such events still pose a threat to public health.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Lippincott Williams & Wilkins, 2013. Vol. 24, no 6, 820-829 p.
National Category
Environmental Health and Occupational Health
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-80690DOI: 10.1097/01.ede.0000434530.62353.0bISI: 000325530100005PubMedID: 24051892OAI: oai:DiVA.org:umu-80690DiVA: diva2:650918
Available from: 2013-09-24 Created: 2013-09-24 Last updated: 2017-12-06Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. On temperature-related mortality in an elderly population and susceptible groups
Open this publication in new window or tab >>On temperature-related mortality in an elderly population and susceptible groups
2014 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Background: Climate change has increased the frequency, intensity, duration, and spatial extent of some extreme weather events, for instance heat waves. Societies today are experiencing an ongoing change in the population structure yielding an increasing proportion elderly due to increased longevity, resulting in higher prevalence of chronic and degenerative diseases. Literature suggests that the elderly and certain susceptible subgroups with chronic disease are among the most vulnerable to heat waves and elevated temperatures.

Aim: The main aims of this thesis were to expand the scientific knowledge on the short-term effects of extreme heat on mortality for the general population and certain susceptible groups in society, to investigate the development of this relationship over time and to attribute mortality to observed climate change.

Methods: Daily numbers of deaths and daily meteorological observations during three different periods were collected for present day Stockholm County, Sweden. The analyses of the relationship between mortality and temperature extremes were analysed using a time series approach. The regression models assumed the daily counts of mortality to follow an overdispersed Poisson distribution and adjustments were made for time-trends as well as confounding factors.

Results: The literature review of recent studies identified a strong relationship between heat and heat waves and increasing death rates among the elderly, particularly for respiratory and cardiovascular mortality. A statistically significant increase in total daily mortality during heat extremes in all decades investigated, as well as over the entire period, during the period 1901-2009 with a declining trend over time for the relative risk associated with heat extremes, was reported in paper II. For the period 1901-2009 cold extremes significantly increased mortality, with a more disperse pattern over individual decades and no declining trend over time. Paper III attributed increased mortality due to climate change between 1900-1929 and 1980-2009. This increase was mainly due to a large number of excess heat extremes in the latter time period. Furthermore certain subgroups of the population above 50, were in paper IV found to have significantly increased mortality during heat waves as compared to non-heat wave days.

Conclusions: Although the relative risk of dying during extreme temperature events appears to have fallen in Stockholm, Sweden, such events still pose a threat to public health. The elderly population and certain susceptible subgroups of the population experience higher relative risks of dying on heat waves days as compared to normal summer days. Some of the groups most susceptible during heat waves were identified. In order to minimize future impacts of heat waves on public health, identifying susceptible subgroups in an ageing society as well as develop strategies to reduce the impact of future temperature extremes on public health will be important.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Umeå: Umeå universitet, 2014. 58 p.
Series
Umeå University medical dissertations, ISSN 0346-6612 ; 1658
Keyword
Heat-related mortality, attribution, elderly, susceptible groups
National Category
Environmental Health and Occupational Health
Research subject
Occupational and Environmental Medicine
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-89019 (URN)978-91-7601-066-2 (ISBN)
Public defence
2014-06-11, Triple Helix, Samverkanshuset, Umeå, 09:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Funder
Forte, Swedish Research Council for Health, Working Life and Welfare, 2009-0454
Available from: 2014-05-20 Created: 2014-05-19 Last updated: 2015-04-29Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

No full text

Other links

Publisher's full textPubMed

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
Aström, Daniel OudinForsberg, BertilEdvinsson, SörenRocklöv, Joacim
By organisation
Occupational and Environmental MedicineCentre for Population Studies (CPS)Epidemiology and Global Health
In the same journal
Epidemiology
Environmental Health and Occupational Health

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar

doi
pubmed
urn-nbn

Altmetric score

doi
pubmed
urn-nbn
Total: 285 hits
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf