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Extinction Times of Epidemic Outbreaks in Networks
Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Physics. Sungkyunkwan University, Suwon, Korea and tockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden. (IceLab)ORCID iD: 0000-0003-2156-1096
2013 (English)In: PLoS ONE, ISSN 1932-6203, Vol. 8, no 12, e84429- p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

In the Susceptible–Infectious–Recovered (SIR) model of disease spreading, the time to extinction of the epidemics happens at an intermediate value of the per-contact transmission probability. Too contagious infections burn out fast in the population. Infections that are not contagious enough die out before they spread to a large fraction of people. We characterize how the maximal extinction time in SIR simulations on networks depend on the network structure. For example we find that the average distances in isolated components, weighted by the component size, is a good predictor of the maximal time to extinction. Furthermore, the transmission probability giving the longest outbreaks is larger than, but otherwise seemingly independent of, the epidemic threshold.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Public Library of Science , 2013. Vol. 8, no 12, e84429- p.
National Category
Computational Mathematics Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology
URN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-84310DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0084429OAI: diva2:682290
Swedish Research Council, 2012-3651
Available from: 2013-12-27 Created: 2013-12-27 Last updated: 2014-02-10Bibliographically approved

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