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Economic stagnation and stable growth: the persistence and survival of growth regimes under political transitions
Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics.
2014 (English)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

This paper analyses the survival of four different growth regimes conditional on political regime transitions that occurred during the first or prior year of the economic regime. The results suggest that in countries with no history of military dictatorship (MD), the episodes of fast-growing regimes initiated by political democratisation have an approximately 40% lower hazard of termination than the miracle growth episodes that were not started by political transitions. This finding does not hold in countries in which the consolidation of democracy is complicated by the historical role played by the army in the governing process. Additional analyses are carried out for the effect of political transitions on the duration of ongoing economic regimes. The data does not support the argument that “order” and the “rule of law” promote economic growth under more authoritarian regimes, which commonly feature authoritarian leaders during times of economic crisis. Political transitions of both directions under an economic crisis render the ongoing economic regime more durable. In contrast political transitions (of both directions) seem to be economically more efficient under the regime of stagnation.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Umeå: Umeå universitet , 2014. , 34 p.
Umeå economic studies, ISSN 0348-1018 ; 873
Keyword [en]
Heckman correction for selection bias, economic growth regimes, survival analyses, political transition
National Category
Social Sciences
URN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-92592OAI: diva2:741818
Available from: 2014-08-29 Created: 2014-08-29 Last updated: 2014-09-05Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Essays on growth and political transition
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Essays on growth and political transition
2014 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Umeå: Department of Economics, Umeå University, 2014. 30 p.
Umeå economic studies, ISSN 0348-1018 ; 893
de facto and de jure political power, economic growth, efficient frontier of economic growth, economic crisis, military dictatorship, political regimes, weak institutions
National Category
Social Sciences Economics
Research subject
urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-92600 (URN)978-91-7601-092-1 (ISBN)
Public defence
2014-09-30, S213h, Umeå, 13:15 (English)
Available from: 2014-09-09 Created: 2014-08-29 Last updated: 2014-09-11Bibliographically approved

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Hakobyan, Lilit
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