The effect of meteorological factors on hand,foot and mouth disease amongst migrant and non-migrant groups in Shanghai,China
Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (One Year)), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
Background: Hand,foot and mouth disease(HFMD),which was firstly detected in 1970s,has been mainly distributed across the Asia-Pacific regions recently. Previous studies revealed the effect of meteorological parameters on the epidemiology of HFMD in China and several other countries. However, none of them demonstrated the respective influence in non-migrant and migrant groups. This study described the yearly trend and seasonality patteren of HFMD and analyzed the effect of climatic variables on HFMD cases in both groups in Shanghai.Methods: We collected data including monthly cases of HFMD and monthly weather parameters, for instance, temperature, atmospheric pressure, relative humidity, precipitation and wind speed, in Shanghai, China, between 2011 and 2014. Negative binomial regression was applied to assess the relationship between weather parameters and HFMD cases in non-migrant and migrant groups separately, after adjusting for short-term trend, seasonality and accounting for delayed effects.Results: The HFMD cases in both migrant and non-migrant groups were gradually increasing during the observed years. In total, more cases(55.54%, 108,690 cases) were observed in migrant citizens than in non-migrant (44.46%,87,021 cases). There were two peaks of HFMD incidence in both groups within the calendar year, and they extended from May to July and from September to December. Each 1 °C rise in temperature corresponded to an increase of 4.32% (95%CI 1.02-1.06,p<0.01)and 3.06%( 1.01-1.05,p<0.01) HFMD cases in the non-migrant group and migrant group respectively. Whereas, every 1 hPa rise in atmospheric pressure corresponded to a decrease in the number of cases by 4.12%(0.94-0.97, p<0.01 ) and 3.53% (0.94-0.98,p<0.01) in the non-migrant and migrant groups. In model B and C of non-migrant group, we also found that the number of cases decreased by 46.82% (0.24-0.97,p<0.05) with each 1 m/s increasing in wind velocity. The lag time’s effect were identified within some models of the non-migrant and migrant group.Conclusions: These findings not only illustrat the yearly tendency and seasonality pattern of HFMD but also the relationship between meteorological variables and HFMD cases in non-migrant and migrant groups in Shanghai.It indicates that migrant group seems more susceptible to HFMD infection. The number of cases in non-migrant group is more vulnerable to the meteorological factors compared to that in migrant group.It can provide the local related parties a more comprehensive understanding of the HFMD activity, and it might also enable similar future researches in other regions of China.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2015. , 20 p.
, Centre for Public Health Report Series, ISSN 1651-341x ; 2015:47
Medical and Health Sciences Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology
IdentifiersURN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-104348OAI: oai:DiVA.org:umu-104348DiVA: diva2:819210
Master's Programme in Public Health
2015-05-25, Umeå, 14:14 (English)
Schumann, Barbara, Forskare
Lindholm, Lars, Professor