Uncertainty, Disagreement and Expert Price Estimates in Art Markets
(English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
This study finds that auction house art experts' relative estimate range positively affects realized prices. The effect is robust across the mid- low- and high-end segments of the international sculpture market. Interpreting the art experts' price estimate range as a proxy for the prevailing divergence of investor opinion in the art market, the findings are consistent with the disagreement model of Miller (1977). This evidence is contradictory to the predictions of the general auction model in Milgrom (1982) and does not lend support to the interpretation of the price estimate range as a proxy only for uncertainty. Moreover, the study gives insight into the price determinants of sculpture using a unique large dataset of over 65,000 sculpture sales at international auctions.
art market, alternative investments, heterogeneous expectations, art auctions, auction theory
Research subject Economics; Business Studies
IdentifiersURN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-106696OAI: oai:DiVA.org:umu-106696DiVA: diva2:844038