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Predicting Impacts of Future Climate Change on the Distribution of the Widespread Conifer Platycladus orientalis
Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences.
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2015 (English)In: PLoS ONE, ISSN 1932-6203, Vol. 10, no 7, e0132326Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Chinese thuja (Platycladus orientalis) has a wide but fragmented distribution in China. It is an important conifer tree in reforestation and plays important roles in ecological restoration in the arid mountains of northern China. Based on high-resolution environmental data for current and future scenarios, we modeled the present and future suitable habitat for P. orientalis, evaluated the importance of environmental factors in shaping the species' distribution, and identified regions of high risk under climate change scenarios. The niche models showed that P. orientalis has suitable habitat of ca. 4.2x10(6) km(2) across most of eastern China and identified annual temperature, monthly minimum and maximum ultraviolet-B radiation and wet-day frequency as the critical factors shaping habitat availability for P. orientalis. Under the low concentration greenhouse gas emissions scenario, the range of the species may increase as global warming intensifies; however, under the higher concentrations of emissions scenario, we predicted a slight expansion followed by contraction in distribution. Overall, the range shift to higher latitudes and elevations would become gradually more significant. The information gained from this study should be an useful reference for implementing long-term conservation and management strategies for the species.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2015. Vol. 10, no 7, e0132326
National Category
Climate Research Forest Science
URN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-107172DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0132326ISI: 000358153000168PubMedID: 26132163OAI: diva2:850725
Available from: 2015-09-02 Created: 2015-08-19 Last updated: 2015-09-02Bibliographically approved

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Wang, Xiao-Ru
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