The development of a localised HIV epidemic and the associated excess mortality burden in a rural area of South Africa
(English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
The HIV epidemic in South Africa rapidly developed into a major pandemic. Here we analyse the development of a local epidemic in a rural area of the country. The study used data collected between 1992 and 2013 in a longitudinal population survey, the Agincourt Health and Socio-demographic Surveillance Study (HDSS). The changing burden on different communities and population sub-groups is compared and the number of excess deaths attributable to HIV is estimated.In the early years of the epidemic deaths due to HIV occurred in all communities indicating a generalised origin. HIV/TB mortality rates peaked around 2007, although in one community the rate continued to increase subsequently. Older adult males (aged 30 – 60 years) were found to have higher HIV/TB mortality rates that their female contemporaries despite having similar HIV prevalence. It was estimated that more than 60% of the deaths occurring in this community between 1992 and 2013 could be attributed to HIV.Detailed knowledge of the HIV epidemic dynamics from longitudinal survey sites such as this can inform the design of more effective testing and treatment programmes.
HIV, mortality, determinants, global health, population health, South Africa
Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology
Research subject Epidemiology
IdentifiersURN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-108613OAI: oai:DiVA.org:umu-108613DiVA: diva2:853721
FunderForte, Swedish Research Council for Health, Working Life and Welfare, 2006–1512Wellcome trust, 058893/Z/99/A; 069683/Z/02/Z; 085477/Z/08/Z