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Global dispersion patterns and outbreak risks of Dengue
Umeå University, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine. (DengueTools)
2015 (English)In: Tropical medicine & international health, ISSN 1360-2276, E-ISSN 1365-3156, Vol. 20, no Suppl. 1, 36-37 p.Article in journal, Meeting abstract (Other academic) Published
Abstract [en]

Dengue, a mosquito-borne viral disease, is rapidly becoming a global health threat due to climate change, globalisation, urbanisation, and population growth. The estimates of the global buren of disease of dengue has recently been updated to show much higher estimates than previous studies. The future burden is likely to expand due to human activities unless effective control measures are put in place. Dengue vectors take advantage of urbanisation, particularly urban heat islands and changes in environment and human populations densities. Global mobility is responsible for the global dispersion of dengue virus and vectors. The introduction of dengue to Europe is highly correlated to international flight network traffic flows. Further, climate change is associated with changes in seasonal weather patterns with potential subsequent impacts on the suitability and temporal and spatial distribution of vectors. Within this context of multiple factors that contribute to the increasing geographic range and intensity of transmission of dengue, prediction and early identification of outbreak risk areas are critically important. Understanding dengue occurrence and outbreaks is complex. We use disease data from international surveillance registers, and meteorological and climate data from online databases. Population and data on global mobility were obtained from IATA registers, and estimates of introduction to dengue in Europe are derived. We used mathematical and statistical methods to describe relationships, timing, and geographic areas of dengue risk in the past, present, and future using a formula for dengue relative vectorial capacity. Modeled global drivers of dengue can predict historic and current risk of dengue outbreaks, and future risk indices indicate further risk of expansion and prolonged transmission seasons in Europe. Information, like this, can guide preventive strategies and actions to control dengue. However, we also acknowledge data scarcity and difficulties in projecting future disease burdens of dengue given that the virus can change, vectors can adapt, and interventions such as vaccine development can radically alter the future disease burden.

Disclosure Nothing to disclose.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Wiley-Blackwell, 2015. Vol. 20, no Suppl. 1, 36-37 p.
National Category
Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-109940ISI: 000360758800088OAI: oai:DiVA.org:umu-109940DiVA: diva2:861321
Conference
The 9th European Congress on Tropical Medicine and International Health (ECTMIH), Basel, Switzerland, September 6-10, 2015
Available from: 2015-10-16 Created: 2015-10-09 Last updated: 2015-10-16Bibliographically approved

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Rocklöv, Joacim
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