Madeira's dengue outbreak in 2012: could it happen again in the near future?
2015 (English)In: Tropical medicine & international health, ISSN 1360-2276, E-ISSN 1365-3156, Vol. 20, no Suppl. 1, 408-409 p.Article in journal, Meeting abstract (Other academic) Published
Introduction: A dengue outbreak in 2012 having 2000 + reported cases, followed vector introduction to the Portuguese island of Madeira in 2005. We describe contributing factors for the 2012 outbreak through modeling of temperature dependent vectorial capacity, meteorological observations of environmental factors pertinent to vector lifecycle, and dynamics of travellers arriving from dengue endemic areas. In combination with reported vector and human surveillance, the temporal onset of the 2012 outbreak and factors setting 2012 apart from other years were used to generate a predictive model for potential re- emergence of dengue in Madeira.
Methods: Relative Vectorial capacity (rVC) was calculated with previously published methods for Madeira (Island) and Funchal (City) from 2005 to 2014 based on both remotely sensed satellite data and observation stations. We also estimated potentially imported dengue infections using previously published methods. Epidemiological features of the 2012 outbreak combined with generated data to inform a predictive model. Projected travel and seasonal weather forecasting inputs for the predictive model described the dengue importation-driven transmission likelihood for Madeira in 2015.
Results: Longitudinal comparisons of available data were displayed simultaneously to show periods of greatest potential for dengue emergence in Madeira, historically. The modeled outputs especially during the months before the outbreak provide more precise quantiﬁcation and visualization of the temporal coincidence, which may have primed Madeira for emergence of dengue in late summer 2012. When seasonal forecast information is applied to the historically informed model for spring and summer 2015, potential for local dengue
transmission in Madeira was determined. Conclusions Local transmission of dengue in Madeira may re occur given the environmental envelope and continuous importation of the dengue virus via travelers, even with strengthened vector control efforts; however, the severity of the 2012 outbreak will hopefully remain the highest. Our results clearly display the coalescence of multiple factors necessary for initial emergence of a dengue epidemic in a naïve population. Descriptive modeling of a known outbreak can better inform the development of predictive modeling of dengue emergence in Madeira and other areas of Europe.
Acknowledgment: European Union 7th Framework Programme through DengueTools (www.denguetools.net) funded this research.
Disclosure: Nothing to disclose.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Wiley-Blackwell, 2015. Vol. 20, no Suppl. 1, 408-409 p.
Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology
IdentifiersURN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-109921ISI: 000360758802261OAI: oai:DiVA.org:umu-109921DiVA: diva2:861392
The 9th European Congress on Tropical Medicine and International Health (ECTMIH), Basel, Switzerland, September 6-10, 2015