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The potential effect of climate change on the geographical distribution of insect pest species in the Swedish boreal forest
Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences. Department of Wildlife, Fish and Environmental Studies, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU), Umea SE 901 83, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-6743-0089
Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences.
2016 (English)In: Scandinavian Journal of Forest Research, ISSN 0282-7581, E-ISSN 1651-1891, Vol. 31, no 1, 29-39 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

With the expected rising temperatures, outbreaks of insect pests may be more frequent, which can have large consequences on forest ecosystems and may therefore negatively affect the forestry sector. In order to be better able to predict where, but not if, outbreaks may occur in future we investigated the potential future (2070) geographical distribution of 30 prospective insect pest species (Coleoptera and Lepidoptera) by applying species distribution modelling. We also assessed the geographical extent to which the boreal forest in Sweden may be affected. We found that numerous species may experience large increases in their potential distribution in future, which may result in outbreaks in new areas. It is therefore likely that more trees will be infested by pests in future, which may have large implications for the Swedish forestry sector.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2016. Vol. 31, no 1, 29-39 p.
Keyword [en]
climate change, forestry, insects, Norway spruce, pests, Scots pine, species distribution modelling
National Category
Forest Science
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-112229DOI: 10.1080/02827581.2015.1052751ISI: 000364488800004OAI: oai:DiVA.org:umu-112229DiVA: diva2:881487
Available from: 2015-12-10 Created: 2015-12-04 Last updated: 2015-12-10Bibliographically approved

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Hof, Anouschka R.Svahlin, Anna
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Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences
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