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En studie i spelmarknadens riskhantering kring stängningsodds
Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Mathematics and Mathematical Statistics.
Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Mathematics and Mathematical Statistics.
2016 (Swedish)Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (Two Years)), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesis
Abstract [sv]

Ett odds inför en fotbollsmatch kan sättas en vecka i förväg men det justeras oftast en eller flera gånger innan matchstart. Anledningen till dessa oddsförändringar varierar men inom spelmarknaden har oddsförändring samma betydelse som riskhantering. Spelbolagen analyserar hur hela marknaden sätter odds och inget bolag vill utsätta sig för större risk än de andra i onödan. Därför fungerar en oddsjustering från ett etablerat bolag som startskottet i en kedjereaktion av oddsjusteringar. Examensarbetets syfte har varit att på uppdrag från Svenska Spel undersöka hur precisa Bolag A, Bolag B och Bolag C är i sina stängningsodds. Med stängningsodds syftas det på oddset företaget erbjuder just före matchstart. Inledningsvis för att kartlägga eventuella oddsintervall där det kan råda bristande riskhantering undersöks utfallet för varje spel (1X2) med det faktiska utfallet. Fortsättningsvis väljs ett Bolag ut för vidare analys. De viktigaste aspekterna i valet av företag är riskhanteringsförmåga samt företagets policy när det kommer till spelare som vinner mycket över en längre tid. För att kunna fastslå eventuella brister i riskhanteringen och för att undersöka huruvida det varit slumpen som varit avgörande så utförs en backtesting på det utvalda företaget. Slutligen utvecklas en matematisk modell för att förutspå utfallet i matcher beroende av målskillnader som kan fungera som ytterligare ett verktyg för Svenska Spel. Resultatet av backtestingen var inte entydigt. I vissa oddsintervall kunde det fastslås att det fanns en brist i riskhanteringen och oddssättningen medan i andra kunde det lika väl ha varit slumpen som varit avgörande. Den matematiska modellen fungerar och beroende på spelstrategi går det att slå marknaden. Likadant kan denna matematiska modell fungera som indikator för spelbolagen att se över sina odds i de utfall där spelarna gör en positiv avkastning. Den matematiska modellen bygger endast på två års data hämtad från engelska Premier League. Resultatet hade kunnat förstärkas med ytterligare två års data. Generellt så kan tillgång till data ses som en begränsning då det endast funnits tillgång till data från de senaste fyra åren. Det som kan argumentera för att använda data från de senaste fyra åren är sportens utveckling. Fotbollen utvecklas i högt takt likaså gör spelmarknaden det. Tillgång till mer data garanterar inte ett bättre resultat. 

Abstract [en]

Odds for a football (soccer) game can be available to place your bets on a week prior to the actual game. From the time that the odds are first available until the referee blows the whistle for kick off the odds will have been adjusted at least once but in some cases multiple times.  In the betting market odds adjustment has the same meaning as risk management and the reasons for these adjustments varies. The betting companies analyze the entire betting market while setting odds because no one wants to expose themselves for a higher risk that others. That is why an odds adjustment from a well-known company sets off a chain reaction of several odds adjustments. The purpose of the master thesis has been to, on behalf of Svenska Spel, analyze how precise Company A, Company B and Company C have been in their closing odds. Closing odds is the odds a company offers right before kick off. To begin with the potential odds intervals where there could have been a potential lack of risk management had to be found. To find these intervals we examine every type of bet (Win, loose and draw) with the actual outcome. The next step in the project was to choose one of these companies’ for further studies. The chosen company had to fit two key aspects. The first aspect was that they had an overall excellent risk management while the second was their legal policy towards gamblers who won repeatedly over time. To be able to establish inadequate risk management there had to be some mathematical ground to ensure the outcome. Thus, a backtesting was performed on the chosen company to further back the conclusion of inadequate risk management or if it was just luck that had been the decisive factor. To conclude the master thesis a tool was developed so that the outcome of future games could be mathematically predicted depending on goal difference. The result of backtesting was not clear. A lack of risk management could be established in some odds intervals while in other odds intervals luck could have been the decisive factor. The mathematical model works and depending on chosen game strategy it is possible to beat the market. At the same time the model can serve as an indicator for betting companies to review their odds in intervals where the player makes a positive return. The mathematical model is based on two years data taken from the English Premier League. The result would have been more conclusive with two additional years of data. A general limitation in this project has been the access of historical data. What may argue against usage of data from beyond the past four years is the rapid ongoing development of the sport. Football is developing rapidly and with it the betting market as well. With this said access to more historical data does not guarantee better results. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2016. , 57 p.
Keyword [sv]
odds
National Category
Mathematics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-114722OAI: oai:DiVA.org:umu-114722DiVA: diva2:897973
External cooperation
Svenska Spel
Educational program
Master of Science in Engineering and Management
Supervisors
Examiners
Available from: 2016-01-27 Created: 2016-01-26 Last updated: 2016-01-27Bibliographically approved

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