umu.sePublications
Change search
ReferencesLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Local scale prediction of Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in an endemic region using temperature and rainfall
Show others and affiliations
2009 (English)In: Global Health Action, ISSN 1654-9716, E-ISSN 1654-9880, Vol. 2, 103-115 p.Article in journal (Refereed) PublishedText
Abstract [en]

Background: To support malaria control strategies, prior knowledge of disease risk is necessary. Developing a model to explain the transmission of malaria, in endemic and epidemic regions, is of high priority in developing health system interventions. We develop, fit and validate a non-spatial dynamic model driven by meteorological conditions that can capture seasonal malaria transmission dynamics at the village level in a malaria holoendemic area of north-western Burkina Faso.

Methods: A total of 676 children aged 6-59 months took part in this study. Trained interviewers visited children at home weekly from December 2003 to November 2004 for Plasmodium falciparum malaria infection detection. Anopheles daily biting rate, mortality rate and growth rate were evaluated. Digital meteorological stations measured ambient temperature, humidity and rainfall in each site.

Results: The overall P. falciparum malaria infection incidence was 1.1 episodes per person year. There was strong seasonal variation in P. falciparum malaria infection incidence with a peak observed in August and September, corresponding to the rainy season and a high number of mosquitoes. The model estimates of monthly mosquito abundance and the incidence of malaria infection correlated well with observed values. The fit was sensitive to daily mosquito survival and daily human parasite clearance.

Conclusion: The model has demonstrated potential for local scale seasonal prediction of P. falciparum malaria infection. It could therefore be used to understand malaria transmission dynamics using meteorological parameters as the driving force and to help district health managers in identifying high-risk periods for more focused interventions.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Co-action publishing , 2009. Vol. 2, 103-115 p.
Keyword [en]
local scale, modelling, prediction, Plasmodium falciparum malaria, under five years, endemic region
National Category
Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-116042DOI: 10.3402/gha.v2i0.1923ISI: 000208160000039OAI: oai:DiVA.org:umu-116042DiVA: diva2:903362
Available from: 2016-02-15 Created: 2016-02-08 Last updated: 2016-02-15Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

No full text

Other links

Publisher's full text

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
Sauerborn, Rainer
By organisation
Epidemiology and Global Health
In the same journal
Global Health Action
Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar
The number of downloads is the sum of all downloads of full texts. It may include eg previous versions that are now no longer available

Altmetric score

Total: 12 hits
ReferencesLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link