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The likely determines the unlikely
Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Physics.
(English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

We point out that the functional form describing the frequency of sizes of events in complex

systems (e.g. earthquakes, forest fires, bursts of neuronal activity) can be obtained from maximal

likelihood inference, which, remarkably, only involve a few available observed measures such as

number of events, total event size and extremes. Most importantly, the method is able to predict

with high accuracy the frequency of the rare extreme events. To be able to predict the few, often

big impact events, from the frequent small events is of course of great general importance. For a

data set of wind speed we are able to predict the frequency of gales with good precision. We analyse

several examples ranging from the shortest length of a recruit to the number of Chinese characters

which occur only once in a text.

National Category
Natural Sciences
Research subject
URN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-117097OAI: diva2:905109
Available from: 2016-02-21 Created: 2016-02-21 Last updated: 2016-02-21

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