Climate Change and Aedes Vectors: 21st Century Projections for Dengue Transmission in Europe
(English)Article in journal (Refereed) Submitted
Warming temperatures may increase the geographic spread of vector-borne diseases into temperate areas. Although a tropical mosquito-borne viral disease, a dengue outbreak occurred in Madeira, Portugal, in 2012; the first in Europe since 1920s. This outbreak emphasizes the potential for dengue re-emergence in Europe given changing climates. We present estimates of dengue epidemic potential using vectorial capacity (VC) based on historic and projected temperature (1901 - 2099). VC indicates the vectors’ ability to spread disease among humans. We calculated temperature-dependent VC for Europe, highlighting 10 European cities and three non-European reference cities. Compared with the tropics, Europe shows pronounced seasonality and geographical heterogeneity. Although low, VC during summer is currently sufficient for dengue outbreaks in Southern Europe to commence–if sufficient vector populations (either Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus) were active and virus were introduced. Under various climate change scenarios, the seasonal peak and time window for dengue epidemic potential increases during the 21st century. Our study maps dengue epidemic potential in Europe and identifies seasonal time windows when major cities are most conducive for dengue transmission from 1901-2099. Our findings illustrate, that besides vector control, mitigating greenhouse gas emissions crucially reduces the future epidemic potential of dengue in Europe.
Vectorial Capacity Aedes aegyptus Aedes albopictus Temperature Climate Change
Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology
IdentifiersURN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-118643OAI: oai:DiVA.org:umu-118643DiVA: diva2:914935
FunderEU, FP7, Seventh Framework Programme, 282589
This study is part of the DengueTools project funded by the European Union Seventh Framework Programme FP7/2007-2013 under grant agreement no. 282589.2016-03-282016-03-282016-04-04Bibliographically approved