umu.sePublications
Change search
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
The Role of the Forest in Climate Policy
Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics. Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Center for Environmental and Resource Economics (CERE).ORCID iD: 0000-0003-4451-7282
2016 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Abstract

In Paper [I], I develop the FOR-DICE model to analyze optimal global forest carbon management. The FOR-DICE is a simple framework for assessing the role of the boreal, tropical, and temperate forests as both a source of renewable energy and a resource to sequester and store carbon. I find that forests play an important role in reducing global emissions, especially under ambitious climate targets. At the global level, efforts should focus on increasing the stock of forest biomass rather than increasing the use of the forest for bioenergy production. The results also highlight the important role of reducing tropical deforestation to reduce climate change.

In Paper [II], I develop the FRICE to investigate the role of two key efforts to increase the stock of forest biomass, namely, afforestation and avoided deforestation. FRICE is a multi-regional integrated assessment model that captures the dynamics of forest carbon sequestration in a transparent way and allows me to investigate the allocation of these actions across space and time. I find that global climate policy can benefit considerably from afforestation and avoided deforestation in tropical regions, and in particular in Africa. Avoided deforestation is particularly effective in the short run while afforestation provides the largest emissions reductions in the medium run. This paper also highlights the importance of not solely relying on avoided deforestation as its capacity to reduce emissions is more limited than afforestation, especially under more stringent temperature targets.

In Paper [III], we investigate how uncertainties linked to the forest affect the optimal climate policy. We incorporate parameter uncertainty on the intrinsic growth rate and climate effects on the forest by using the state-contingent approach. Our results show that forest uncertainty matters. We find that the importance of including forest in climate policy increases when the forest is subject to uncertainty. This occurs because optimal forest response allows us to reduce the costs associated with uncertainty.

In Paper [IV], we explore the implications of asymmetries in climate policy arising from not recognizing forest carbon emissions and sequestration in the decision-making process. We show that not fully including carbon values associated with the forest will have large effects on different forest controls and lead to an increase in emissions, higher carbon prices, and lower welfare.  We further find, by investigating the relative importance of forest emissions compared to sequestration, that recognizing forest emissions from bioenergy and deforestation is especially important for climate policy.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Umeå: Umeå Universitet , 2016. , 18 p.
Series
Umeå economic studies, ISSN 0348-1018 ; 927
Keyword [en]
climate change, integrated assessment, forest carbon sequestration, forest bioenergy, avoided deforestation, afforestation, uncertainty, dynamic modeling, DICE, RICE
National Category
Economics
Research subject
Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-119811ISBN: 978-91-7601-462-2 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:umu-119811DiVA: diva2:924339
Public defence
2016-05-26, S204H, Samhällsvetarhuset, Umeå, 10:15 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2016-05-04 Created: 2016-04-28 Last updated: 2016-05-26Bibliographically approved
List of papers
1. The role of the forest in an integrated assessment model of the climate and the economy
Open this publication in new window or tab >>The role of the forest in an integrated assessment model of the climate and the economy
2015 (English)In: Climate Change Economics, ISSN 2010-0078, E-ISSN 2010-0086, Vol. 6, no 3, 1550011Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This paper develops the FOR-DICE model to explore the potential role of the global forest in reducing climate change. It presents a basic framework for assessing the boreal, tropical, and temperate forests as both a source of renewable energy and a resource to sequester and store carbon. The focus of the paper is to explore whether climate policies should focus on increasing the forest biomass, to sequester and store carbon, or on increasing the use of the forest biomass as a source of energy, to substitute fossil fuels. The paper shows that the global forest can play an important role in reducing atmospheric carbon. The main finding at the global level is that it is better to increase the forest biomass rather than increase the use of forest bioenergy. The reason for this is that the decrease in forest carbon stock created by increased bioenergy harvests is not offset by avoided fossil fuel emissions. This finding suggests that setting high bioenergy targets, without considering the dynamics of the forest stock and the efficiency of bioenergy, will be detrimental to climate change mitigation.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
World Scientific, 2015
Keyword
Climate change, forest carbon sequestration, integrated assessment model
National Category
Economics and Business Climate Research Forest Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-113756 (URN)10.1142/S2010007815500116 (DOI)000365766400002 ()
Available from: 2015-12-28 Created: 2015-12-28 Last updated: 2017-12-01Bibliographically approved
2. Mitigating climate change with forest climate tools
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Mitigating climate change with forest climate tools
2016 (English)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

This paper develops the FRICE, a framework that determines optimal levels of forest climate tools in the context of global climate policy. The paper integrates afforestation and avoided deforestation into the well-known global multi-regional integrated assessment model, RICE-2010. The paper finds that climate forest tools can play an essential role in global climate policy and that this role is increasingly important under stringent temperature targets. Under a 2_C temperature target, the model reveals that emission reductions from avoided deforestation are quickly exhausted whereas afforestation is capable of substantially reducing emission reductions in both the medium and long run. The model also indicates that the most significant reductions in emissions from avoided deforestation and afforestation can be achieved by focusing policy efforts on tropical forests.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Umeå: Umeå universitet, 2016. 42 p.
Series
CERE working paper, 2016:05
National Category
Social Sciences Interdisciplinary
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-119892 (URN)
Available from: 2016-05-02 Created: 2016-05-02 Last updated: 2016-08-24Bibliographically approved
3. When not in the best of worlds: uncertainty and forest carbon sequestration
Open this publication in new window or tab >>When not in the best of worlds: uncertainty and forest carbon sequestration
2016 (English)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

It is argued that the forest can provide low-cost options to reduce the atmospheric CO2 concentration. However, many dimensions of the future dynamics of the forest, and its interactions with climate change are still not well understood. This paper provides new insights into how these types of uncertainties affect the optimal climate policy. We model uncertainty over several key forest parameters by using the novel state-contingent approach. Our main results show that the importance of including optimal forest controls in climate policy increases when the dynamics of the forest are uncertain. Ignoring uncertainties concerning the forest will lead to biased estimates of the social costs of carbon and be misleading when evaluating climate policies. Conversely, recognizing forest uncertainties and its potential to mitigate climate change will lead to a robust policy where the cost of uncertainty to a large extent can be avoided.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Umeå: Umeå universitet, 2016. 53 p.
Series
CERE Working Paper, 2016:04
National Category
Social Sciences Interdisciplinary
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-119894 (URN)
Available from: 2016-05-02 Created: 2016-05-02 Last updated: 2016-08-24Bibliographically approved
4. Pricing forest carbon: implications of asymmetry in climate policy
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Pricing forest carbon: implications of asymmetry in climate policy
2016 (English)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

In this paper, we use an integrated assessment model to examine the implications of not recognizing, and partially recognizing forest carbon in climate policy. Specifically, we investigate the impact of an asymmetric carbon policy that recognizes emissions from fossil fuels while ignoring emissions from forests. We additionally investigate the relative importance of not recognizing positive emissions from a reduction in the stock of forest biomass, or of not recognizing negative emissions from the growth of forest biomass. We show that asymmetric carbon policies lead to lower levels of welfare, as well as higher emissions and carbon prices. This occurs because the forest resource will be allocated inefficiently under these carbon policies. Broadly, we find that when the social planner does not account for neither positive or negative forest emissions, the planner will set bioenergy levels that are too high and afforestation and avoided deforestation levels that are too low. Our results further reveal that not recognizing forest emissions leads to larger welfare losses than not recognizing sequestration.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Umeå: Umeå universitet, 2016. 25 p.
Series
CERE Working Paper, 2016:06
National Category
Social Sciences Interdisciplinary
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-119895 (URN)
Available from: 2016-05-02 Created: 2016-05-02 Last updated: 2016-08-24Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

fulltext(445 kB)194 downloads
File information
File name FULLTEXT02.pdfFile size 445 kBChecksum SHA-512
62e01d2bd180ca0850bbb4a13f82622e93eb59bb8122e96e534f578eec3d446b2e7b319f1c4b529152b3cca177c26319a248631917c6af72cfc246c421835b99
Type fulltextMimetype application/pdf
Spikblad(85 kB)33 downloads
File information
File name SPIKBLAD01.pdfFile size 85 kBChecksum SHA-512
9c68face0d2b3c5992be22e16a605ff7bbcd3ba705fae9944295e6165df6b89ce51cbe1e4bafa8e134ab28ef4e46788f4fa840dc3461333b053b3ad808621721
Type spikbladMimetype application/pdf

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
Eriksson, Mathilda
By organisation
EconomicsCenter for Environmental and Resource Economics (CERE)
Economics

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar
Total: 194 downloads
The number of downloads is the sum of all downloads of full texts. It may include eg previous versions that are now no longer available

isbn
urn-nbn

Altmetric score

isbn
urn-nbn
Total: 1039 hits
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf