umu.sePublications
Change search
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment
Show others and affiliations
2016 (English)In: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 11, no 3, 034014Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Resource type
Text
Abstract [en]

As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%-85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2016. Vol. 11, no 3, 034014
Keyword [en]
permafrost carbon, Arctic, boreal, wildfire, dissolved organic carbon, particulate organic carbon, coastal erosion
National Category
Climate Research Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-120651DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014ISI: 000373401400017OAI: oai:DiVA.org:umu-120651DiVA: diva2:950628
Available from: 2016-08-01 Created: 2016-05-18 Last updated: 2017-11-28Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

fulltext(2756 kB)84 downloads
File information
File name FULLTEXT01.pdfFile size 2756 kBChecksum SHA-512
c77ae26e52d7f2a1d94b795f5724c28551143f0ca0998c7a6ca9a058c6915486735ff2e5890ef86e4dff22538d14be89c5b912db4ab2b4b145bce6295e720cea
Type fulltextMimetype application/pdf

Other links

Publisher's full text

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
Tank, Suzanne E.Carcaillet, ChristopherDorrepaal, EllenKarlsson, JanKeuper, Frida
By organisation
Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences
In the same journal
Environmental Research Letters
Climate ResearchEarth and Related Environmental Sciences

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar
Total: 84 downloads
The number of downloads is the sum of all downloads of full texts. It may include eg previous versions that are now no longer available

doi
urn-nbn

Altmetric score

doi
urn-nbn
Total: 290 hits
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf