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  • 1. Abbott, Benjamin W.
    et al.
    Jones, Jeremy B.
    Schuur, Edward A. G.
    Chapin, F. Stuart, III
    Bowden, William B.
    Bret-Harte, M. Syndonia
    Epstein, Howard E.
    Flannigan, Michael D.
    Harms, Tamara K.
    Hollingsworth, Teresa N.
    Mack, Michelle C.
    McGuire, A. David
    Natali, Susan M.
    Rocha, Adrian V.
    Tank, Suzanne E.
    Turetsky, Merritt R.
    Vonk, Jorien E.
    Wickland, Kimberly P.
    Aiken, George R.
    Alexander, Heather D.
    Amon, Rainer M. W.
    Benscoter, Brian W.
    Bergeron, Yves
    Bishop, Kevin
    Blarquez, Olivier
    Bond-Lamberty, Ben
    Breen, Amy L.
    Buffam, Ishi
    Cai, Yihua
    Carcaillet, Christopher
    Carey, Sean K.
    Chen, Jing M.
    Chen, Han Y. H.
    Christensen, Torben R.
    Cooper, Lee W.
    Cornelissen, J. Hans C.
    de Groot, William J.
    DeLuca, Thomas H.
    Dorrepaal, Ellen
    Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences.
    Fetcher, Ned
    Finlay, Jacques C.
    Forbes, Bruce C.
    French, Nancy H. F.
    Gauthier, Sylvie
    Girardin, Martin P.
    Goetz, Scott J.
    Goldammer, Johann G.
    Gough, Laura
    Grogan, Paul
    Guo, Laodong
    Higuera, Philip E.
    Hinzman, Larry
    Hu, Feng Sheng
    Hugelius, Gustaf
    Jafarov, Elchin E.
    Jandt, Randi
    Johnstone, Jill F.
    Karlsson, Jan
    Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences.
    Kasischke, Eric S.
    Kattner, Gerhard
    Kelly, Ryan
    Keuper, Frida
    Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences.
    Kling, George W.
    Kortelainen, Pirkko
    Kouki, Jari
    Kuhry, Peter
    Laudon, Hjalmar
    Laurion, Isabelle
    Macdonald, Robie W.
    Mann, Paul J.
    Martikainen, Pertti J.
    McClelland, James W.
    Molau, Ulf
    Oberbauer, Steven F.
    Olefeldt, David
    Pare, David
    Parisien, Marc-Andre
    Payette, Serge
    Peng, Changhui
    Pokrovsky, Oleg S.
    Rastetter, Edward B.
    Raymond, Peter A.
    Raynolds, Martha K.
    Rein, Guillermo
    Reynolds, James F.
    Robards, Martin
    Rogers, Brendan M.
    Schaedel, Christina
    Schaefer, Kevin
    Schmidt, Inger K.
    Shvidenko, Anatoly
    Sky, Jasper
    Spencer, Robert G. M.
    Starr, Gregory
    Striegl, Robert G.
    Teisserenc, Roman
    Tranvik, Lars J.
    Virtanen, Tarmo
    Welker, Jeffrey M.
    Zimov, Sergei
    Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment2016In: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 11, no 3, article id 034014Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%-85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced.

  • 2. Ampel, Linda
    et al.
    Bigler, Christian
    Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences.
    Wohlfarth, Barbara
    Risberg, Jan
    Lotter, André F
    Veres, Daniel
    Modest summer temperature variability during DO cycles in western Europe2010In: Quaternary Science Reviews, ISSN 0277-3791, E-ISSN 1873-457X, Vol. 29, no 11/12, p. 1322-1327Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Abrupt climatic shifts between cold stadials and warm interstadials, termed Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) cycles, occurred frequently during the Last Glacial. Their imprint is registered in paleorecords worldwide, but little is known about the actual temperature change both annually and seasonally in different regions. A recent hypothesis based on modelling studies, suggests that DO cycles were characterised by distinct changes in seasonality in the Northern Hemisphere. The largest temperature change between stadial and interstadial phases would have occurred during the winter and spring seasons, whereas the summer seasons would have experienced a rather muted temperature shift. Here we present a temporally high-resolved reconstruction of summer temperatures for eastern France during a sequence of DO cycles between 36 and 18 thousand years before present. The reconstruction is based on fossil diatom assemblages from the paleolake Les Echets and indicates summer temperature changes of ca 0.5–2 °C between stadials and interstadials. This study is the first to reconstruct temperatures with a sufficient time resolution to investigate DO climate variability in continental Europe. It is therefore also the first proxy record that can test and support the hypothesis that temperature changes during DO cycles were modest during the summer season.

  • 3.
    B. Krishnamurthy, Chandra Kiran
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Center for Environmental and Resource Economics (CERE). Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics.
    Cioffi, Francesco
    University of Rome ‘La Sapienza’, Italy.
    Lall, Upmanu
    Columbia University, New York.
    Rus, Ester
    Thames Water Innovation Centre, Reading, UK.
    Space-time Structure of Extreme Precipitation in Europe over the last CenturyArticle in journal (Refereed)
  • 4.
    Bidleman, Terry Frank
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Chemistry. Centre for Atmospheric Research Experiments, Environment Canada, Canada.
    Jantunen, Liisa M.
    Binnur Kurt-Karakus, Perihan
    Wong, Fiona
    Hung, Hayley
    Ma, Jianmin
    Stern, Gary
    Rosenberg, Bruno
    Chiral Chemicals as Tracers of Atmospheric Sources and Fate Processes in a World of Changing Climate2013In: Mass Spectrometry, ISSN 2186-5116, Vol. 2, no 19, Special Issue: Proceedings of 19th International Mass Spectrometry Conference, p. S0019-Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Elimination of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) under national and international regulations reduces “primary” emissions, but “secondary” emissions continue from residues deposited in soil, water, ice and vegetation during former years of usage. In a future, secondary source controlled world, POPs will follow the carbon cycle and biogeochemical processes will determine their transport, accumulation and fate. Climate change is likely to affect mobilisation of POPs through e.g., increased temperature, altered precipitation and wind patterns, flooding, loss of ice cover in polar regions, melting glaciers, and changes in soil and water microbiology which affect degradation and transformation. Chiral compounds offer advantages for following transport and fate pathways because of their ability to distinguish racemic (newly released or protected from microbial attack) and nonracemic (microbially degraded) sources. This paper discusses the rationale for this approach and suggests applications where chiral POPs could aid investigation of climate-mediated exchange and degradation processes. Multiyear measurements of two chiral POPs, trans-chlordane and α-HCH, at a Canadian Arctic air monitoring station show enantiomer compositions which cycle seasonally, suggesting varying source contributions which may be under climatic control. Large-scale shifts in the enantioselective metabolism of chiral POPs in soil and water might influence the enantiomer composition of atmospheric residues, and it would be advantageous to include enantiospecific analysis in POPs monitoring programs.

  • 5.
    Blennow, Kristina
    et al.
    Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet.
    Persson, Johannes
    Lunds Universitet.
    Persson, Erik
    Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet.
    Hanewinkel, Mark
    University of Freiburg.
    Forest Owners' Response to Climate Change: University Education Trumps Value Profile2016In: PLoS ONE, ISSN 1932-6203, E-ISSN 1932-6203, Vol. 11, no 5, article id e0155137Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Do forest owners' levels of education or value profiles explain their responses to climatechange? The cultural cognition thesis (CCT) has cast serious doubt on the familiar andoften criticized "knowledge deficit" model, which says that laypeople are less concernedabout climate change because they lack scientific knowledge. Advocates of CCT maintainthat citizens with the highest degrees of scientific literacy and numeracy are not the mostconcerned about climate change. Rather, this is the group in which cultural polarization isgreatest, and thus individuals with more limited scientific literacy and numeracy are moreconcerned about climate change under certain circumstances than those with higher scientificliteracy and numeracy. The CCT predicts that cultural and other values will trump thepositive effects of education on some forest owners' attitudes to climate change. Here,using survey data collected in 2010 from 766 private forest owners in Sweden and Germany,we provide the first evidence that perceptions of climate change risk are uncorrelatedwith, or sometimes positively correlated with, education level and can be explained withoutreference to cultural or other values. We conclude that the recent claim that advanced scientificliteracy and numeracy polarizes perceptions of climate change risk is unsupported bythe forest owner data. In neither of the two countries was university education found toreduce the perception of risk from climate change. Indeed in most cases university educationincreased the perception of risk. Even more importantly, the effect of university educationwas not dependent on the individuals' value profile.

  • 6. Blum, Matthias
    et al.
    Ducoing, Cristián
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Geography and Economic History, Economic history.
    McLaughin, Eoin
    A sustainable century: genuine savings in developing and developed countries, 1900-20002017In: National wealth: what is missing, why it matters / [ed] Kirk Hamilton and Cameron Hepburn, Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2017, p. 89-113Chapter in book (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This chapter traces the long-run development of genuine savings (GS) during the twentieth century using a panel of developed countries (Great Britain, Germany, Switzerland, France, the US, and Australia) and resource-abundant countries in Latin America (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Mexico) representing approximately 50% of the world’s output in terms of GDP by 1950. It includes large economies and small open economies, and resource-rich and resource-scarce countries, allowing comparison of their historical experiences. Components of GS considered include physical and human capital as well as resource extraction and pollution damages. Generally, there is evidence of positive GS over the course of the twentieth century, although the two world wars and the Great Depression left considerable marks, but also striking differences between Latin American and developed countries when total factor productivity is included; this could be a signal of natural resource curse or technological gaps unnoticed in previous works.

  • 7.
    Blume-Werry, Gesche
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences.
    Wilson, Scott D.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences. Department of Biology, University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan S4S 0A2 Canada.
    Kreyling, Juergen
    Milbau, Ann
    Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences. Research Institute for Nature and Forest INBO, Kliniekstraat 25, 1070 Brussels, Belgium.
    The hidden season: growing season is 50% longer below than above ground along an arctic elevation gradient2016In: New Phytologist, ISSN 0028-646X, E-ISSN 1469-8137, Vol. 209, no 3, p. 978-986Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    There is compelling evidence from experiments and observations that climate warming prolongs the growing season in arctic regions. Until now, the start, peak, and end of the growing season, which are used to model influences of vegetation on biogeochemical cycles, were commonly quantified using above-ground phenological data. Yet, over 80% of the plant biomass in arctic regions can be below ground, and the timing of root growth affects biogeochemical processes by influencing plant water and nutrient uptake, soil carbon input and microbial activity. We measured timing of above- and below-ground production in three plant communities along an arctic elevation gradient over two growing seasons. Below-ground production peaked later in the season and was more temporally uniform than above-ground production. Most importantly, the growing season continued c. 50% longer below than above ground. Our results strongly suggest that traditional above-ground estimates of phenology in arctic regions, including remotely sensed information, are not as complete a representation of whole-plant production intensity or duration, as studies that include root phenology. We therefore argue for explicit consideration of root phenology in studies of carbon and nutrient cycling, in terrestrial biosphere models, and scenarios of how arctic ecosystems will respond to climate warming.

  • 8. Bokhorst, Stef
    et al.
    Huiskes, Ad
    Aerts, Rien
    Convey, Peter
    Cooper, Elisabeth J
    Dalen, Linda
    Erschbamer, Brigitta
    Gudmundsson, Jon
    Hofgaard, Annika
    Hollister, Robert D
    Johnstone, Jill
    Jonsdottir, Ingibjorg S
    Lebouvier, Marc
    Van De Vijver, Bart
    Wahren, Carl-Henrik
    Dorrepaal, Ellen
    Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences.
    Variable temperature effects of Open Top Chambers at polar and alpine sites explained by irradiance and snow depth2013In: Global Change Biology, ISSN 1354-1013, E-ISSN 1365-2486, Vol. 19, no 1, p. 64-74Article, review/survey (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Environmental manipulation studies are integral to determining biological consequences of climate warming. Open Top Chambers (OTCs) have been widely used to assess summer warming effects on terrestrial biota, with their effects during other seasons normally being given less attention even though chambers are often deployed year-round. In addition, their effects on temperature extremes and freeze-thaw events are poorly documented. To provide robust documentation of the microclimatic influences of OTCs throughout the year, we analysed temperature data from 20 studies distributed across polar and alpine regions. The effects of OTCs on mean temperature showed a large range (-0.9 to 2.1 degrees C) throughout the year, but did not differ significantly between studies. Increases in mean monthly and diurnal temperature were strongly related (R-2 = 0.70) with irradiance, indicating that PAR can be used to predict the mean warming effect of OTCs. Deeper snow trapped in OTCs also induced higher temperatures at soil/vegetation level. OTC-induced changes in the frequency of freeze-thaw events included an increase in autumn and decreases in spring and summer. Frequency of high-temperature events in OTCs increased in spring, summer and autumn compared with non-manipulated control plots. Frequency of low-temperature events was reduced by deeper snow accumulation and higher mean temperatures. The strong interactions identified between aspects of ambient environmental conditions and effects of OTCs suggest that a detailed knowledge of snow depth, temperature and irradiance levels enables us to predict how OTCs will modify the microclimate at a particular site and season. Such predictive power allows a better mechanistic understanding of observed biotic response to experimental warming studies and for more informed design of future experiments. However, a need remains to quantify OTC effects on water availability and wind speed (affecting, for example, drying rates and water stress) in combination with microclimate measurements at organism level.

  • 9. Brigham-Grette, Julie
    et al.
    Melles, Martin
    Minyuk, Pavel
    Andreev, Andrei
    Tarasov, Pavel
    DeConto, Robert
    Koenig, Sebastian
    Nowaczyk, Norbert
    Wennrich, Volker
    Rosén, Peter
    Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences.
    Haltia, Eeva
    Cook, Tim
    Gebhardt, Catalina
    Meyer-Jacob, Carsten
    Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences.
    Snyder, Jeff
    Herzschuh, Ulrike
    Pliocene warmth, polar amplification, and stepped pleistocene cooling recorded in NE arctic russia2013In: Science, ISSN 0036-8075, E-ISSN 1095-9203, Vol. 340, no 6139, p. 1421-1427Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Understanding the evolution of Arctic polar climate from the protracted warmth of the middle Pliocene into the earliest glacial cycles in the Northern Hemisphere has been hindered by the lack of continuous, highly resolved Arctic time series. Evidence from Lake El'gygytgyn, in northeast (NE) Arctic Russia, shows that 3.6 to 3.4 million years ago, summer temperatures were similar to 8 degrees C warmer than today, when the partial pressure of CO2 was similar to 400 parts per million. Multiproxy evidence suggests extreme warmth and polar amplification during the middle Pliocene, sudden stepped cooling events during the Pliocene-Pleistocene transition, and warmer than present Arctic summers until similar to 2.2 million years ago, after the onset of Northern Hemispheric glaciation. Our data are consistent with sea-level records and other proxies indicating that Arctic cooling was insufficient to support large-scale ice sheets until the early Pleistocene.

  • 10.
    Brook, Barry
    et al.
    Faculty of Science, Engineering & Technology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia.
    Edney, Kingsley
    School of Politics & International Studies, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK.
    Hillerbrand, Rafaela
    Ethics & Philosophy of Technology, TU Delft, Delft, The Netherlands.
    Karlsson, Rasmus
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Political Science.
    Symons, Jonathan
    Department of Modern History, Politics & International Relations, Macquarie University, Sydney, Australia.
    Energy research within the UNFCCC: a proposal to guard against ongoing climate-deadlock2016In: Climate Policy, ISSN 1469-3062, E-ISSN 1752-7457, Vol. 16, no 6, p. 803-813Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We propose that an international ‘Low-Emissions Technology Commitment’ should be incorporated into the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) negotiation process in order to promote innovation that will enable deepdecarbonization. The goal is to accelerate research, development, and demonstration of safe, scalable, and affordable lowemissions energy technologies. Such a commitment should be based on three elements. First, it should operate within existing UNFCCC negotiations so as to encourage developed states to offer directed funding for energy research as part of their national contributions. Second, pledges should be binding, verifiable, and coordinated within an international energy-research plan.Third, expert scientific networks and participating governments should collaborate to design a coordinated global research and technology-demonstration strategy and oversee national research efforts. To this end an Intergovernmental Panel on Low-Emissions Technology Research might be established. This proposal offers some insurance against the risk that the political impasse in international negotiations cannot be overcome. The higher costs associated with low-emissions alternatives to fossil fuels currently creates significant economic and political resistance to their widespread adoption. To breach this impasse, amechanism supporting accelerated energy research is needed that seeks to reduce future abatement costs, share experienceand ‘learning-by-doing’ in first-of-a-kind demonstrations, and thus facilitate future widespread deployments. These actions will also assist in addressing inequalities in energy access.

  • 11.
    Buckland, Philip I.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Arts, Department of historical, philosophical and religious studies, Environmental Archaeology Lab. Umeå University, Faculty of Arts, Humlab.
    SEAD - The Strategic Environmental Archaeology Database Inter-linking Multiproxy Environmental Data with Archaeological Investigations and Ecology2013In: Archaeology in the Digital Era: Papers from the 40th Annual Conference of Computer Applications and Quantitative Methods in Archaeology (CAA), Southampton, 26-29 March 2012 / [ed] Graeme Earl, Tim Sly, Angeliki Chrysanthi, Patricia Murrieta-Flores, Constantinos Papadopoulos, Iza Romanowska & David Wheatley, Amsterdam University Press, 2013, Vol. 1, p. 320-331Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The volume of data on past environmental and climate changes, as well as human interactions with these, has long since passed the level where it is manageable outside of large scale database systems. The Strategic Environmental Archaeology Database project aims to not only store and disseminate such data, but also provide tools for querying and analysing them, whilst maintaining a close connection with the archaeological and ecological data that are essential for their comprehensive interpretation. Large scale, geographically and chronologically unrestricted databases provide us with essentially unlimited scope for putting individual sites into a broader context and applying locally collated data to the investigation of earth system level changes. By providing integrated access to data from a variety of proxies, including plant macrofossils, pollen, insects and geochemistry, along with dating evidence, more complex questions can be answered where any single proxy would not be able to provide comprehensive answers.

  • 12.
    Buckland, Philip I.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Arts, Department of historical, philosophical and religious studies, Environmental Archaeology Lab.
    The Bugs Coleopteran Ecology Package (BugsCEP): the development and implementation of software for palaeoenvironmental and palaeoclimatological research2009Book (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This book describes the development and practical application of a unique database orientated software package, BugsCEP, for environmental, climatic and biodiversity reconstruction from beetle assemblages. BugsCEP consists of a database of ecology and distribution data for over 9400 insect taxa, and includes temperature tolerance data for 436 species. It contains abundance and summary data for over 770 sites, most of the known European Quaternary fossil coleopteran record, supported by a bibliography of over 3700 sources. Built in statistics, including a specially developed habitat classification system, provide semi-quantitative environmental reconstructions to aid in the interpretation of sites. BugsCEP's querying and reporting functions also increase the efficiency with which analyses can be undertaken, including the facility to explore the fossil record of species by searching ecology and distribution data. The Mutual Climatic Range (MCR) reconstruction method is implemented and improved upon, including predictive modelling and the graphical output of reconstructions and climate space maps. BugsCEP is available from www.bugscep.com.

  • 13.
    Buckland, Philip I.
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Arts, Department of historical, philosophical and religious studies, Environmental Archaeology Lab. Umeå University, Faculty of Arts, Humlab.
    Buckland, Paul C.
    BugsCEP, an entomological database twenty-five years on2014In: Antenna (Journal of the Royal Entomological Society), ISSN 0140-1890, Vol. 38, no 1, p. 21-28Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 14.
    Buckland, Philip I.
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Arts, Archaeology and Sami Studies, Environmental Archaeology Lab.
    Buckland, Paul C.
    BugsCEP: Coleopteran Ecology Package (software)2006Other (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
    Abstract [en]

    BugsCEP is a research and teaching aid for palaeoentomology, entomology and ecology. As well as habitat and distribution data, it includes tools for climate and environmental reconstruction, and facilities for storing site based abundance/collection data. A variety of searching and reporting functions greatly augment the efficiency of beetle based research.

    Bugs is built around a comprehensive database of beetle ecology and European fossil records which has been accumulated over the past 20 years.

  • 15.
    Buckland, Philip I.
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Arts, Archaeology and Sami Studies.
    Buckland, Paul C.
    How can a database full of Bugs help reconstruct the climate?2002In: Archaeological Informatics - Pushing the Envelope - CAA 2001 - Computer Applications and Quantitative Methods in Archaeology: Proceedings of the 29th Conference, Gotland, April 2001, British Archaeological Reports , 2002, p. 453-461Conference paper (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The BUGS Insect Ecology Package was originally constructed (using Dbase and Clipper) to compile Coleoptera (beetle) habitat and distribution data from a myriad of sources into one, easy to use, and publicly available database. Its primary users were researchers and teachers within the palaeoentomology field. The present system, five versions and many revisions later, is built in MS Access 2000, and covers some 5300 species, 2000 references, and 240 sites (archaeological and Quaternary), and is of value to archaeologists, ecologists, and conservationists alike.

    BUGS is essentially a relational database management system constructed around three components:

    - the species data (modern ecology and distribution)

    - the bibliography

    - the site data with species lists

    Its implementation in several institutions has greatly accelerated the efficiency with which palaeoentomological investigations can be carried out, and greatly improved the teaching of the subject.

    Palaeoenvironmental reconstructions are performed by the superimposition of the ecology and distribution of modern insect populations over fossil assemblages. At the moment, this is essentially performed semi-quantitatively by cross-reference of the data (which BUGS collates for a species list and then exports as an RTF file to any word processing package). BUGS contains a wealth of ecological data which can be employed in the interpretation of archaeological sites and contexts. In natural deposits, away from the artificial heat islands created by human activity, insect distributions are essentially constrained by climatic parameters. Tim Atkinson (UEA) and Dave Perry (formerly at Birmingham University) digitally encoded the temperature range data for over 400 species into a program for the calculation of palaeoclimates through the MCR (Mutual Climatic Range) method, and this has been extensively used in the modelling of Quaternary climates from beetle remains. The aim of our present phase of BUGS development is to implement MCR functionality into the BUGS database system. From this point it should be possible to move on to other ecological variables such as habitat and vegetation types, and increase the precision of modern climatic data, thus enhancing the value of insects in archaeological interpretation and the modelling of past climates.

  • 16.
    Buckland, Philip I.
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Arts, Department of historical, philosophical and religious studies, Environmental Archaeology Lab.
    Buckland, Paul C.
    Olsson, Fredrik
    Umeå University, Faculty of Arts, Department of historical, philosophical and religious studies, Environmental Archaeology Lab.
    Paleoentomology: Insects and other Arthropods in Environmental Archaeology2014In: The Encyclopedia of Global Archaeology / [ed] Claire Smith, Springer Science+Business Media B.V., 2014, p. 5740-5755Chapter in book (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Insects are the most diverse group of animals on the planet, and as suchare present in a wider variety of habitats than most other organism groups.This diversity, in addition to a long evolutionary history (Grimaldi &Engel 2005), and together with a propensity to be preserved in both desiccatingand anaerobic environments, has provided an excellent tool for thereconstruction of both Quaternary and more immediate archaeologicalenvironments. Insect remains often provide proxy environmental information onthe immediate context from which the fossils are derived, and as such may beeither complementary to the more regional picture provided by palynology orindicate site conditions, such as levels of hygiene and evidence of tradingconnections, which are rarely available from any other palaeoecological source.They therefore provide information on a broad range of habitats and conditions,on- and off-site, and in addition, in appropriate contexts, also climate.Processing of samples is essentially simple, requiring readily availablematerials, yet is time consuming, and identification of the usuallydisarticulated fragments (sclerites) requires diligence and patience and accessto well curated reference collections. Fortunately, abundant literature,computer software and database tools now exist to aid in their interpretation.

  • 17.
    Buckland, Philip I.
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Arts, Department of historical, philosophical and religious studies, Environmental Archaeology Lab.
    Buckland, Paul C.
    Olsson, Fredrik
    Paleoentomology: Insects and Other Arthropods in Environmental Archaeology2018In: Encyclopedia of Global Archaeology / [ed] Smith C., Cham: Springer, 2018, 2Chapter in book (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Insects are the most diverse group of animals on the planet and as such are present in a wider variety of habitats than most other complex organisms. This diversity, in addition to a long evolutionary history (Grimaldi and Engel 2005), and together with a propensity to be preserved in both desiccating and anaerobic environments, has provided an excellent tool for the reconstruction of both Quaternary and more immediate archaeological environments. Insect remains often provide proxy environmental information on the immediate context from which the fossils are derived, and as such may be either complementary to the more regional picture provided by palynology or indicate site conditions, such as levels of hygiene and evidence of trading connections, which are rarely available from any other palaeoecological source. They therefore provide information on a broad range of habitats and conditions, on- and off-site, and in addition, in appropriate contexts, also climate. Processing of samples is essentially simple, requiring readily available materials, yet is time consuming, and identification of the usually disarticulated fragments (sclerites) requires diligence and patience and access to well-curated reference collections. Fortunately, abundant literature, computer software, and database tools now exist to aid in their interpretation.

  • 18.
    Buckland, Philip I.
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Arts, Department of historical, philosophical and religious studies, Environmental Archaeology Lab.
    Eriksson, Erik J.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Arts, Department of historical, philosophical and religious studies, Environmental Archaeology Lab.
    Palm, Fredrik
    Umeå University, Faculty of Arts, Humlab.
    SEAD - The Strategic Environmental Archaeology Database: Progress Report Spring 20142014Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This report provides an overview of the progress and results of the VR:KFI infrastructure projects 2007-7494 and (825-)2010-5976. It should be considered as a status report in an on-going long-term research infrastructure development project.

  • 19.
    Bunse, Carina
    et al.
    Linnéuniversitetet, Institutionen för biologi och miljö (BOM).
    Lundin, Daniel
    Linnéuniversitetet, Institutionen för biologi och miljö (BOM).
    Karlsson, Christofer M. G.
    Linnéuniversitetet, Institutionen för biologi och miljö (BOM).
    Akram, Neelam
    Linnéuniversitetet, Institutionen för biologi och miljö (BOM).
    Vila-Costa, Maria
    Centre d’Estudis Avançats de Blanes-CSIC, Spain.
    Palovaara, Joakim
    Linnéuniversitetet, Institutionen för biologi och miljö (BOM).
    Svensson, Lovisa
    Linnéuniversitetet, Institutionen för biologi och miljö (BOM).
    Holmfeldt, Karin
    Linnéuniversitetet, Institutionen för biologi och miljö (BOM).
    González, José M.
    University of La Laguna, Spain.
    Calvo, Eva
    Institut de Ciències del Mar—CSIC, Spain.
    Pelejero, Carles
    Institut de Ciències del Mar—CSIC, Spain.
    Marrasé, Cèlia
    Institut de Ciències del Mar—CSIC, Spain.
    Dopson, Mark
    Linnéuniversitetet, Institutionen för biologi och miljö (BOM).
    Gasol, Josep M.
    Institut de Ciències del Mar—CSIC, Spain.
    Pinhassi, Jarone
    Linnéuniversitetet, Institutionen för biologi och miljö (BOM).
    Response of marine bacterioplankton pH homeostasis gene expression to elevated CO22016In: Nature Climate Change, ISSN 1758-678X, E-ISSN 1758-6798, Vol. 6, no 5, p. 483-487Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Human-induced ocean acidification impacts marine life. Marine bacteria are major drivers of biogeochemical nutrient cycles and energy fluxes1; hence, understanding their performance under projected climate change scenarios is crucial for assessing ecosystem functioning. Whereas genetic and physiological responses of phytoplankton to ocean acidification are being disentangled2, 3, 4, corresponding functional responses of bacterioplankton to pH reduction from elevated CO2 are essentially unknown. Here we show, from metatranscriptome analyses of a phytoplankton bloom mesocosm experiment, that marine bacteria responded to lowered pH by enhancing the expression of genes encoding proton pumps, such as respiration complexes, proteorhodopsin and membrane transporters. Moreover, taxonomic transcript analysis showed that distinct bacterial groups expressed different pH homeostasis genes in response to elevated CO2. These responses were substantial for numerous pH homeostasis genes under low-chlorophyll conditions (chlorophyll a <2.5 μg l−1); however, the changes in gene expression under high-chlorophyll conditions (chlorophyll a >20 μg l−1) were low. Given that proton expulsion through pH homeostasis mechanisms is energetically costly, these findings suggest that bacterioplankton adaptation to ocean acidification could have long-term effects on the economy of ocean ecosystems.

  • 20.
    Båmstedt, Ulf
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences. Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Umeå Marine Sciences Centre (UMF).
    Andersson, Agneta
    Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences. Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Umeå Marine Sciences Centre (UMF).
    Wikner, Johan
    Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences. Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Umeå Marine Sciences Centre (UMF).
    Blomqvist, Sven
    Konsekvenser för Östersjöns biologi av förändrat klimat under 21:a århundradet2007Report (Other academic)
  • 21.
    Béguin, Andreas
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Epidemiology and Global Health.
    Hales, Simon
    University of Otago, Wellington, New Zealand.
    Rocklöv, Joacim
    Umeå University, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Epidemiology and Global Health. Umeå University, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Occupational and Environmental Medicine.
    Åström, Christofer
    Umeå University, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Occupational and Environmental Medicine. Umeå University, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Epidemiology and Global Health.
    Louis, Valérie R
    Institute for Public Health, Heidelberg University Hospital, Heidelberg, Germany.
    Sauerborn, Rainer
    Umeå University, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Epidemiology and Global Health.
    The opposing effects of climate change and socio-economic development on the global distribution of malaria2011In: Global Environmental Change, ISSN 0959-3780, E-ISSN 1872-9495, Vol. 21, no 4, p. 1209-1214Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The current global geographic distribution of malaria results from a complex interaction between climatic and non-climatic factors. Over the past century, socio-economic development and public health measures have contributed to a marked contraction in the distribution of malaria. Previous assessments of the potential impact of global changes on malaria have not quantified the effects of non-climate factors. In this paper, we describe an empirical model of the past, present and future-potential geographic distribution of malaria which incorporates both the effects of climate change and of socio-economic development. A logistic regression model using temperature, precipitation and gross domestic product per capita (GDPpc) identifies the recent global geographic distribution of malaria with high accuracy (sensitivity 85% and specificity 95%). Empirically, climate factors have a substantial effect on malaria transmission in countries where GDPpc is currently less than US$20,000. Using projections of future climate, GDPpc and population consistent with the IPCC A1B scenario, we estimate the potential future population living in areas where malaria can be transmitted in 2030 and 2050. In 2050, the projected population at risk is approximately 5.2 billion when considering climatic effects only, 1.95 billion when considering the combined effects of GDP and climate, and 1.74 billion when considering GDP effects only. Under the A1B scenario, we project that climate change has much weaker effects on malaria than GDPpc increase. This outcome is, however, dependent on optimistic estimates of continued socioeconomic development. Even then, climate change has important effects on the projected distribution of malaria, leading to an increase of over 200 million in the projected population at risk.

  • 22. Cairns, David M.
    et al.
    Lafon, Charles W.
    Mouton, Michelle F.
    Stuteville, Rachel L.
    Young, Amanda B.
    Moen, Jon
    Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences.
    Comparing two methods for ageing trees with suppressed, diffuse-porous rings (Betula pubescens ssp. czerepanovii)2012In: Dendrochronologia, ISSN 1125-7865, E-ISSN 1612-0051, Vol. 30, no 4, p. 252-256Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The annual growth rings of diffuse porous species such as mountain birch are often difficult to distinguish when samples are collected from trees that grow at treeline or in other harsh environments. In this study we document the differences in seedling and sapling ring counts obtained from two methods of analysis: a traditional analysis based on reflected light and low-power microscopy and one based on transmitted light with higher power magnification that uses thin-sections of the samples. Rings are easier to resolve using the more labor-intensive transmitted light method. Small rings are often missed when using the reflected light method, resulting in an underestimation of tree age. The dates estimated by the standard method agreed with those determined using the thin-sectioning method in 9.6% of the cases. Most commonly, the standard method gave a younger age than did thin-sectioning (72.4% of the trees). In only 18.03% of the cases did the standard method result in a greater age than did thin-sectioning. The reflected light method produced age estimations that were on average 1.37 years younger than those determined using the transmitted light method. The difference between the two methods was positively correlated with age and negatively correlated with mean ring-width. Age-class histograms based on the two methods show little difference at coarser aggregation levels (decades and pentads), but annualized age-class histograms have less agreement between the two methods. Therefore, we suggest using the more labor-intensive thin-sectioning method when annualized age counts are necessary in suppressed seedlings and saplings, for example, comparing tree establishment with annual climate conditions at treeline.

  • 23. Calbet, Albert
    et al.
    Sazhin, Andrey F.
    Nejstgaard, Jens C.
    Berger, Stella A.
    Tait, Zachary S.
    Olmos, Lorena
    Sousoni, Despoina
    Isari, Stamatina
    Martinez, Rodrigo A.
    Bouquet, Jean-Marie
    Thompson, Eric M.
    Båmstedt, Ulf
    Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences.
    Jakobsen, Hans H.
    Future Climate Scenarios for a Coastal Productive Planktonic Food Web Resulting in Microplankton Phenology Changes and Decreased Trophic Transfer Efficiency2014In: PLoS ONE, ISSN 1932-6203, E-ISSN 1932-6203, Vol. 9, no 4, p. e94388-Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We studied the effects of future climate change scenarios on plankton communities of a Norwegian fjord using a mesocosm approach. After the spring bloom, natural plankton were enclosed and treated in duplicates with inorganic nutrients elevated to pre-bloom conditions (N, P, Si; eutrophication), lowering of 0.4 pH units (acidification), and rising 3 degrees C temperature (warming). All nutrient-amended treatments resulted in phytoplankton blooms dominated by chain-forming diatoms, and reached 13-16 mu g chlorophyll (chl) a l(-1). In the control mesocosms, chl a remained below 1 mu g l(-1). Acidification and warming had contrasting effects on the phenology and bloom-dynamics of autotrophic and heterotrophic microplankton. Bacillariophyceae, prymnesiophyceae, cryptophyta, and Protoperidinium spp. peaked earlier at higher temperature and lower pH. Chlorophyta showed lower peak abundances with acidification, but higher peak abundances with increased temperature. The peak magnitude of autotrophic dinophyceae and ciliates was, on the other hand, lowered with combined warming and acidification. Over time, the plankton communities shifted from autotrophic phytoplankton blooms to a more heterotrophic system in all mesocosms, especially in the control unaltered mesocosms. The development of mass balance and proportion of heterotrophic/autotrophic biomass predict a shift towards a more autotrophic community and less-efficient food web transfer when temperature, nutrients and acidification are combined in a future climate-change scenario. We suggest that this result may be related to a lower food quality for microzooplankton under acidification and warming scenarios and to an increase of catabolic processes compared to anabolic ones at higher temperatures.

  • 24. Callaghan, Terry V.
    et al.
    Johansson, Margareta
    Brown, Ross D.
    Groisman, Pavel Ya.
    Labba, Niklas
    Radionov, Vladimir
    Barry, Roger G.
    Blangy, Sylvie
    Bradley, Raymond S.
    Bulygina, Olga N.
    Christensen, Torben R.
    Colman, Jonathan
    Essery, Richard L.H.
    Forbes, Bruce C.
    Forchhammer, Mads C.
    Frolov, Dimitry M.
    Golubev, Vladimir N.
    Grenfell, Thomas C.
    Honrath, Richard E.
    Juday, Glenn P.
    Melloh, Rae
    Meshcherskaya, Anna V.
    Petrushina, Marina N.
    Phoenix, Gareth K.
    Pomeroy, John
    Rautio, Arja
    Razuvaev, Vyacheslav N.
    Robinson, David A.
    Romanov, Peter
    Schmidt, Niels M.
    Serreze, Mark C.
    Shevchenko, Vladimir
    Shiklomanov, Alexander I.
    Shindell, Drew
    Shmakin, Andrey B.
    Sköld, Peter
    Umeå University, Faculty of Arts, Centre for Sami Research.
    Sokratov, Sergey A.
    Sturm, Matthew
    Warren, Stephen
    Woo, Ming-ko
    Wood, Eric F.
    Yang, Daquing
    Changing snow cover and its impacts2011In: Snow, Water, Ice and Permafrost in the Arctic (SWIPA): Climate Change and the Cryosphere, Oslo: Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme, 2011, p. 4:1-4:58Chapter in book (Refereed)
  • 25. Callaghan, Terry V.
    et al.
    Johansson, Margareta
    Brown, Ross D.
    Groisman, Pavel Ya
    Labba, Niklas
    Radionov, Vladimir
    Bradley, Raymond S.
    Blangy, Sylvie
    Bulygina, Olga N.
    Christensen, Torben R.
    Colman, Jonathan E.
    Essery, Richard L. H.
    Forbes, Bruce C.
    Forchhammer, Mads C.
    Golubev, Vladimir N.
    Honrath, Richard E.
    Juday, Glenn P.
    Meshcherskaya, Anna V.
    Phoenix, Gareth K.
    Pomeroy, John
    Rautio, Arja
    Robinson, David A.
    Schmidt, Niels M.
    Serreze, Mark C.
    Shevchenko, Vladimir P.
    Shiklomanov, Alexander I.
    Shmakin, Andrey B.
    Sköld, Peter
    Umeå University, Arctic Research Centre at Umeå University. Umeå University, Faculty of Arts, Centre for Sami Research.
    Sturm, Matthew
    Woo, Ming-ko
    Wood, Eric F.
    Multiple effects of changes in arctic snow cover2011In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 40, p. 32-45Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Snow cover plays a major role in the climate, hydrological and ecological systems of the Arctic and other regions through its influence on the surface energy balance (e.g. reflectivity), water balance (e.g. water storage and release), thermal regimes (e.g. insulation), vegetation and trace gas fluxes. Feedbacks to the climate system have global consequences. The livelihoods and well-being of Arctic residents and many services for the wider population depend on snow conditions so changes have important consequences. Already, changing snow conditions, particularly reduced summer soil moisture, winter thaw events and rain-on-snow conditions have negatively affected commercial forestry, reindeer herding, some wild animal populations and vegetation. Reductions in snow cover are also adversely impacting indigenous peoples' access to traditional foods with negative impacts on human health and well-being. However, there are likely to be some benefits from a changing Arctic snow regime such as more even run-off from melting snow that favours hydropower operations.

  • 26.
    Demiroglu, Osman Cenk
    et al.
    Department of Tourism and Hotel Management, Istanbul Bilgi University, Istanbul 34060, Turkey; Department of Tourism Administration, Bogazici University, Istanbul 34342, Turkey; Center for Climate Change and Policy Studies, Bogazici University, Istanbul 34342, Turkey.
    Turp, M. Tufan
    Ozturk, Tugba
    Kurnaz, M. Levent
    Impact of climate change on natural snow reliability, snowmaking capacities, and wind conditions of ski resorts in northeast Turkey: a dynamical downscaling approach2016In: Atmosphere, ISSN 2073-4433, E-ISSN 2073-4433, Vol. 7, no 4, article id 52Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Many ski resorts worldwide are going through deteriorating snow cover conditions due to anthropogenic warming trends. As the natural and the artificially supported, i.e., technical, snow reliability of ski resorts diminish, the industry approaches a deadlock. For this reason, impact assessment studies have become vital for understanding vulnerability of ski tourism. This study considers three resorts at one of the rapidly emerging ski destinations, Northeast Turkey, for snow reliability analyses. Initially one global circulation model is dynamically downscaled by using the regional climate model RegCM4.4 for 1971-2000 and 2021-2050 periods along the RCP4.5 greenhouse gas concentration pathway. Next, the projected climate outputs are converted into indicators of natural snow reliability, snowmaking capacity, and wind conditions. The results show an overall decline in the frequencies of naturally snow reliable days and snowmaking capacities between the two periods. Despite the decrease, only the lower altitudes of one ski resort would face the risk of losing natural snow reliability and snowmaking could still compensate for forming the base layer before the critical New Year's week. On the other hand, adverse high wind conditions improve as to reduce the number of lift closure days at all resorts. Overall, this particular region seems to be relatively resilient against climate change.

  • 27.
    Denfeld, Blaize A.
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences.
    Klaus, Marcus
    Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences.
    Laudon, Hjalmar
    Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences.
    Sponseller, Ryan A.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences.
    Karlsson, Jan
    Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences.
    Carbon Dioxide and Methane Dynamics in a Small Boreal Lake During Winter and Spring Melt Events2018In: Journal of Geophysical Research - Biogeosciences, ISSN 2169-8953, E-ISSN 2169-8961, Vol. 123, no 8, p. 2527-2540Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In seasonally ice‐covered lakes, carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) emission at ice‐off can account for a significant fraction of the annual budget. Yet knowledge of the mechanisms controlling below lake‐ice carbon (C) dynamics and subsequent CO2 and CH4 emissions at ice‐off is limited. To understand the control of below ice C dynamics, and C emissions in spring, we measured spatial variation in CO2, CH4, and dissolved inorganic and organic carbon from ice‐on to ice‐off, in a small boreal lake during a winter with sporadic melting events. Winter melt events were associated with decreased surface water DOC in the forest‐dominated basin and increased surface water CH4 in the mire‐dominated basin. At the whole‐lake scale, CH4 accumulated below ice throughout the winter, whereas CO2 accumulation was greatest in early winter. Mass‐balance estimates suggest that, in addition to the CO2 and CH4 accumulated during winter, external inputs of CO2 and CH4 and internal processing during ice‐melt could represent significant sources of C gas emissions during ice‐off. Moreover, internal processing of CO2 and CH4 worked in opposition, with production of CO2 and oxidation of CH4 dominating at ice‐off. These findings have important implications for how small boreal lakes will respond to warmer winters in the future; increased winter melt events will likely increase external inputs below ice and thus alter the extent and timing of CO2 and CH4 emissions to the atmosphere at ice‐off.

  • 28.
    Dupuis, Johann
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Geography and Economic History. IDHEAP, Swiss Graduate School of Public Administration, Université de Lausanne, Switzerland.
    Biesbroek, Robbert
    Comparing apples and oranges: The dependent variable problem in comparing and evaluating climate change adaptation policies2013In: Global Environmental Change, ISSN 0959-3780, E-ISSN 1872-9495, Vol. 23, no 6, p. 1476-1487Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    An increasing number of studies have compared climate change adaptation policies within and between different countries. In this paper we show that these comparative studies suffer from what is known as the "dependent variable problem' - the indistinctness of the phenomenon that is being measured, and disagreement on its scope and boundaries. This problem has been signaled in other scientific fields where it proved to hamper meaningful comparisons and policy evaluations, transnational learning, and policy transfer. This paper aims to raise consciousness of the dependent variable problem in comparative studies on climate change adaptation policy by exploring its origins and proposes ways to deal with it. Three main sources of the problem are discussed: (1) conceptual indistinctness of adaptation policy and the heterogeneity and lack of consistency of what is being compared between cases. (2) Inadequate research designs to compare cases. (3) Unclear indicators and explanatory variables to compare across cases. We propose a way to operationalize the concept of adaptation policy, provide a narrower description of the research designs for policy change or outcomes analysis, and finally discuss possible measurements concepts.

  • 29.
    Ehlers, Ina
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Medical Biochemistry and Biophysics.
    Köhler, Iris
    Wieloch, Thomas
    Vlam, Mart
    van der Sleen, Peter
    Groenendijk, Peter
    Grabner, Michael
    Seim, Andrea
    Allen, Kathryn
    Wei, Liang
    Robertson, Iain
    Marshall, John
    Zuidema, Pieter A.
    Schleucher, Jürgen
    Umeå University, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Medical Biochemistry and Biophysics.
    Limited suppression of photorespiration by 20th century atmospheric CO2 increase in trees worldwideManuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Forests are a key component of the global carbon and hydrological cycle and forest responses to  environmental  drivers  create  important  feedbacks  to  these  cycles.  Photosynthetic efficiency of most forest tree species is strongly limited by photorespiration, a side reaction using O2 instead of CO2 as substrate, leading to a carbon loss for the plant. Photorespiration occurs in all trees and is reduced under elevated CO2 concentrations and increased under elevated temperature. Because the CO2 concentration of the atmosphere has increased in past decades, long-lived trees may have benefited from reduced photorespiration, but the temperature increase would have been a compensating detriment; but direct quantification of long-term changes in metabolic fluxes is lacking. Realistic forecasting of responses of trees and forests to future CO2 and temperature demands quantifying the reduction of photorespiration.  In  twelve  tree  species  from  five  continents,  we  observe  that photorespiration has been reduced by the CO2 increase during the past century, but for most the reduction is smaller than predicted from plant responses in CO2 alone. Comparison with data from a combined CO2 and temperature manipulation experiment shows that the reduced response can be explained by increases in leaf temperatures, which might result directly from increased  air  temperatures  or  indirectly  from  reduced  transpirative  cooling.  These  data suggest that global warming has already inhibited plant fertilization by increasing CO2, and that biomass increases may have been smaller than deduced from measurements of the heavy carbon isotope 13C. Observation of this centennial metabolic shift in tree physiology worldwide provides new insights into forest-climate feedbacks and can be used to improve coupled climate-vegetation models.

  • 30. Elmendorf, Sarah C.
    et al.
    Henry, Gregory H. R.
    Hollister, Robert D.
    Bjork, Robert G.
    Boulanger-Lapointe, Noemie
    Cooper, Elisabeth J.
    Cornelissen, Johannes H. C.
    Day, Thomas A.
    Dorrepaal, Ellen
    Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences.
    Elumeeva, Tatiana G.
    Gill, Mike
    Gould, William A.
    Harte, John
    Hik, David S.
    Hofgaard, Annika
    Johnson, David R.
    Johnstone, Jill F.
    Jonsdottir, Ingibjorg Svala
    Jorgenson, Janet C.
    Klanderud, Kari
    Klein, Julia A.
    Koh, Saewan
    Kudo, Gaku
    Lara, Mark
    Levesque, Esther
    Magnusson, Borgthor
    May, Jeremy L.
    Mercado-Diaz, Joel A.
    Michelsen, Anders
    Molau, Ulf
    Myers-Smith, Isla H.
    Oberbauer, Steven F.
    Onipchenko, Vladimir G.
    Rixen, Christian
    Schmidt, Niels Martin
    Shaver, Gaius R.
    Spasojevic, Marko J.
    Porhallsdottir, Pora Ellen
    Tolvanen, Anne
    Troxler, Tiffany
    Tweedie, Craig E.
    Villareal, Sandra
    Wahren, Carl-Henrik
    Walker, Xanthe
    Webber, Patrick J.
    Welker, Jeffrey M.
    Wipf, Sonja
    Plot-scale evidence of tundra vegetation change and links to recent summer warming2012In: Nature Climate Change, ISSN 1758-678X, E-ISSN 1758-6798, Vol. 2, no 6, p. 453-457Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Temperature is increasing at unprecedented rates across most of the tundra biome(1). Remote-sensing data indicate that contemporary climate warming has already resulted in increased productivity over much of the Arctic(2,3), but plot-based evidence for vegetation transformation is not widespread. We analysed change in tundra vegetation surveyed between 1980 and 2010 in 158 plant communities spread across 46 locations. We found biome-wide trends of increased height of the plant canopy and maximum observed plant height for most vascular growth forms; increased abundance of litter; increased abundance of evergreen, low-growing and tall shrubs; and decreased abundance of bare ground. Intersite comparisons indicated an association between the degree of summer warming and change in vascular plant abundance, with shrubs, forbs and rushes increasing with warming. However, the association was dependent on the climate zone, the moisture regime and the presence of permafrost. Our data provide plot-scale evidence linking changes in vascular plant abundance to local summer warming in widely dispersed tundra locations across the globe.

  • 31.
    Ericsson, Göran
    et al.
    SLU, Umeå.
    Larsson, Thomas B
    Umeå University, Faculty of Arts, Department of historical, philosophical and religious studies.
    Rosqvist, Gunhild
    Stockholms universitet.
    Jonasson, Christer
    Polarforskningssekretariatet.
    Älgen flyr när klimatet ändras2011In: Miljötrender, ISSN 1403-4743, no 4, p. 12-13Article in journal (Other academic)
  • 32.
    Eriksson, Mathilda
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics.
    The role of the forest in an integrated assessment model of the climate and the economy2015In: Climate Change Economics, ISSN 2010-0078, E-ISSN 2010-0086, Vol. 6, no 3, article id 1550011Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper develops the FOR-DICE model to explore the potential role of the global forest in reducing climate change. It presents a basic framework for assessing the boreal, tropical, and temperate forests as both a source of renewable energy and a resource to sequester and store carbon. The focus of the paper is to explore whether climate policies should focus on increasing the forest biomass, to sequester and store carbon, or on increasing the use of the forest biomass as a source of energy, to substitute fossil fuels. The paper shows that the global forest can play an important role in reducing atmospheric carbon. The main finding at the global level is that it is better to increase the forest biomass rather than increase the use of forest bioenergy. The reason for this is that the decrease in forest carbon stock created by increased bioenergy harvests is not offset by avoided fossil fuel emissions. This finding suggests that setting high bioenergy targets, without considering the dynamics of the forest stock and the efficiency of bioenergy, will be detrimental to climate change mitigation.

  • 33.
    Furberg, Maria
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Clinical Microbiology.
    Hondula, David
    Saha, Michael
    Nilsson, Maria
    Umeå University, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Medical Biosciences.
    In the light of change: correspondence between observational data and perceptions of climate in northern Sweden - a mixed methods study2016In: International Journal of Circumpolar Health, ISSN 1239-9736, E-ISSN 2242-3982, Vol. 75, p. 12-12, article id 33200Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 34. Gasparrini, Antonio
    et al.
    Guo, Yuming
    Sera, Francesco
    Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria
    Huber, Veronika
    Tong, Shilu
    de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Micheline
    Nascimento Saldiva, Paulo Hilario
    Lavigne, Eric
    Matus Correa, Patricia
    Valdes Ortega, Nicolas
    Kan, Haidong
    Osorio, Samuel
    Kyselý, Jan
    Urban, Aleš
    Jaakkola, Jouni J. K.
    Ryti, Niilo R. I.
    Pascal, Mathilde
    Goodman, Patrick G.
    Zeka, Ariana
    Michelozzi, Paola
    Scortichini, Matteo
    Hashizume, Masahiro
    Honda, Yasushi
    Hurtado-Diaz, Magali
    Cesar Cruz, Julio
    Seposo, Xerxes
    Kim, Ho
    Tobias, Aurelio
    Iñiguez, Carmen
    Forsberg, Bertil
    Umeå University, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Occupational and Environmental Medicine.
    Oudin Åström, Daniel
    Umeå University, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Occupational and Environmental Medicine.
    Ragettli, Martina S.
    Guo, Yue Leon
    Wu, Chang-Fu
    Zanobetti, Antonella
    Schwartz, Joel
    Bell, Michelle L.
    Dang, Tran Ngoc
    Van, Dung Do
    Heaviside, Clare
    Vardoulakis, Sotiris
    Hajat, Shakoor
    Haines, Andy
    Armstrong, Ben
    Projections of temperature-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios2017In: The Lancet Planetary Health, ISSN 2542-5196, Vol. 1, no 9, p. e360-e367Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Background: Climate change can directly affect human health by varying exposure to non-optimal outdoor temperature. However, evidence on this direct impact at a global scale is limited, mainly due to issues in modelling and projecting complex and highly heterogeneous epidemiological relationships across different populations and climates.

    Methods: We collected observed daily time series of mean temperature and mortality counts for all causes or non-external causes only, in periods ranging from Jan 1, 1984, to Dec 31, 2015, from various locations across the globe through the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network. We estimated temperature-mortality relationships through a two-stage time series design. We generated current and future daily mean temperature series under four scenarios of climate change, determined by varying trajectories of greenhouse gas emissions, using five general circulation models. We projected excess mortality for cold and heat and their net change in 1990-2099 under each scenario of climate change, assuming no adaptation or population changes.

    Findings: Our dataset comprised 451 locations in 23 countries across nine regions of the world, including 85 879 895 deaths. Results indicate, on average, a net increase in temperature-related excess mortality under high-emission scenarios, although with important geographical differences. In temperate areas such as northern Europe, east Asia, and Australia, the less intense warming and large decrease in cold-related excess would induce a null or marginally negative net effect, with the net change in 2090-99 compared with 2010-19 ranging from -1·2% (empirical 95% CI -3·6 to 1·4) in Australia to -0·1% (-2·1 to 1·6) in east Asia under the highest emission scenario, although the decreasing trends would reverse during the course of the century. Conversely, warmer regions, such as the central and southern parts of America or Europe, and especially southeast Asia, would experience a sharp surge in heat-related impacts and extremely large net increases, with the net change at the end of the century ranging from 3·0% (-3·0 to 9·3) in Central America to 12·7% (-4·7 to 28·1) in southeast Asia under the highest emission scenario. Most of the health effects directly due to temperature increase could be avoided under scenarios involving mitigation strategies to limit emissions and further warming of the planet.

    Interpretation: This study shows the negative health impacts of climate change that, under high-emission scenarios, would disproportionately affect warmer and poorer regions of the world. Comparison with lower emission scenarios emphasises the importance of mitigation policies for limiting global warming and reducing the associated health risks.

  • 35.
    Gavazov, Konstantin
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences. Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snowand Landscape Research, WSL SiteLausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland; Laboratory of Ecological Systems ECOS,School of Architecture, Civil and Environmental Engine ering ENAC, EcolePolytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne EPFL,Lausanne, Switzerland.
    Albrecht, Remy
    Buttler, Alexandre
    Dorrepaal, Ellen
    Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences.
    Garnett, Mark H.
    Gogo, Sebastien
    Hagedorn, Frank
    Mills, Robert T. E.
    Robroek, Bjorn J. M.
    Bragazza, Luca
    Vascular plant-mediated controls on atmospheric carbon assimilation and peat carbon decomposition under climate change2018In: Global Change Biology, ISSN 1354-1013, E-ISSN 1365-2486, Vol. 24, no 9, p. 3911-3921Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Climate change can alter peatland plant community composition by promoting the growth of vascular plants. How such vegetation change affects peatland carbon dynamics remains, however, unclear. In order to assess the effect of vegetation change on carbon uptake and release, we performed a vascular plant-removal experiment in two Sphagnum-dominated peatlands that represent contrasting stages of natural vegetation succession along a climatic gradient. Periodic measurements of net ecosystem CO2 exchange revealed that vascular plants play a crucial role in assuring the potential for net carbon uptake, particularly with a warmer climate. The presence of vascular plants, however, also increased ecosystem respiration, and by using the seasonal variation of respired CO2 radiocarbon (bomb-C-14) signature we demonstrate an enhanced heterotrophic decomposition of peat carbon due to rhizosphere priming. The observed rhizosphere priming of peat carbon decomposition was matched by more advanced humification of dissolved organic matter, which remained apparent beyond the plant growing season. Our results underline the relevance of rhizosphere priming in peatlands, especially when assessing the future carbon sink function of peatlands undergoing a shift in vegetation community composition in association with climate change.

  • 36.
    Gimmi, Urs
    et al.
    Research Unit Landscape Dynamics, Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, 8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland.
    Poulter, Ben
    Research Unit Landscape Dynamics, Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, 8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland; Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et l'Environement (LSCE), Gif sur Yvette, France.
    Wolf, Annett
    Forest Ecology, Department of Environmental Sciences, Institute of Terrestrial Ecosystems, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology ETH, .
    Portner, H.
    Forest Ecology, Department of Environmental Sciences, Institute of Terrestrial Ecosystems, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology ETH, .
    Weber, P
    Research Unit Soil Sciences, Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, 8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland.
    Bürgi, M.
    Research Unit Landscape Dynamics, Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, 8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland.
    Soil carbon pools in Swiss forests show legacy effects from historic forest litter raking2013In: Landscape Ecology, ISSN 0921-2973, E-ISSN 1572-9761, Vol. 28, no 5, p. 835-846Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Globally, forest soils contain twice as much carbon as forest vegetation. Consequently, natural and anthropogenic disturbances affecting carbon accumulation in forest soils can alter regional to global carbon balance. In this study, we evaluate the effects of historic litter raking on soil carbon stocks, a former forest use which used to be widespread throughout Europe for centuries. We estimate, for Switzerland, the carbon sink potential in current forest soils due to recovery from past litter raking ('legacy effect'). The year 1650 was chosen as starting year for litter raking, with three different end years (1875/1925/1960) implemented for this forest use in the biogeochemical model LPJ-GUESS. The model was run for different agricultural and climatic zones separately. Number of cattle, grain production and the area of wet meadow have an impact on the specific demand for forest litter. The demand was consequently calculated based on historical statistical data on these factors. The results show soil carbon pools to be reduced by an average of 17 % after 310 years of litter raking and legacy effects were still visible 130 years after abandonment of this forest use (2 % average reduction). We estimate the remaining carbon sink potential in Swiss forest due to legacy effects from past litter raking to amount to 158,000 tC. Integrating historical data into biogeochemical models provides insight into the relevance of past land-use practices. Our study underlines the importance of considering potentially long-lasting effects of such land use practices for carbon accounting.

  • 37. Gimmi, Urs
    et al.
    Wolf, Annett
    Umeå University. Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Inst Terr Ecosyst, Dept Environm Sci, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland.
    Buergi, Matthias
    Scherstjanoi, Marc
    Bugmann, Harald
    Quantifying disturbance effects on vegetation carbon pools in mountain forests based on historical data2009In: Regional Environmental Change, ISSN 1436-3798, E-ISSN 1436-378X, Vol. 9, no 2, p. 121-130Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Although the terrestrial carbon budget is of key importance for atmospheric CO(2) concentrations, little is known on the effects of management and natural disturbances on historical carbon stocks at the regional scale. We reconstruct the dynamics of vegetation carbon stocks and flows in forests across the past 100 years for a valley in the eastern Swiss Prealps using quantitative and qualitative information from forest management plans. The excellent quality of the historical information makes it possible to link dynamics in growing stocks with high-resolution time series for natural and anthropogenic disturbances. The results of the historical reconstruction are compared with modelled potential natural vegetation. Forest carbon stock at the beginning of the twentieth century was substantially reduced compared to natural conditions as a result of large scale clearcutting lasting until the late nineteenth century. Recovery of the forests from this unsustainable exploitation and systematic forest management were the main drivers of a strong carbon accumulation during almost the entire twentieth century. In the 1990s two major storm events and subsequent bark beetle infestations significantly reduced stocks back to the levels of the mid-twentieth century. The future potential for further carbon accumulation was found to be strongly limited, as the potential for further forest expansion in this valley is low and forest properties seem to approach equilibrium with the natural disturbance regime. We conclude that consistent long-term observations of carbon stocks and their changes provide rich information on the historical range of variability of forest ecosystems. Such historical information improves our ability to assess future changes in carbon stocks. Further, the information is vital for better parameterization and initialization of dynamic regional scale vegetation models and it provides important background for appropriate management decisions.

  • 38. Goettel, Holger
    et al.
    Alexander, Jorn
    Keup-Thiel, Elke
    Rechid, Diana
    Hagemann, Stefan
    Blome, Tanja
    Wolf, Annett
    Umeå University. ETH Zentrum, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland.
    Jacob, Daniela
    Influence of changed vegetations fields on regional climate simulations in the Barents Sea Region2008In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 87, no 1-2, p. 35-50Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In the context of the EU-Project BALANCE (http://balance-eu.info) the regional climate model REMO was used for extensive calculations of the Barents Sea climate to investigate the vulnerability of this region to climate change. The regional climate model REMO simulated the climate change of the Barents Sea Region between 1961 and 2100 (Control and Climate Change run, CCC-Run). REMO on similar to 50 km horizontal resolution was driven by the transient ECHAM4/OPYC3 IPCC SRES B2 scenario. The output of the CCC-Run was applied to drive the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS. The results of the vegetation model were used to repeat the CCC-Run with dynamic vegetation fields. The feedback effect of the modified vegetation on the climate change signal is investigated and discussed with focus on precipitation, temperature and snow cover. The effect of the offline coupled vegetation feedback run is much lower than the greenhouse gas effect.

  • 39.
    Graae, BJ
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences.
    Verheyen, K
    Kolb, A
    Van Der Veken, S
    Heinken, T
    Chabrerie, O
    Diekmann, M
    Valtinat, K
    Zindel, R
    Karlsson, E
    Ström, Lotta
    Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences.
    Decocq, G
    Hermy, M
    Baskin, CC
    Germination requirements and seed mass of slow- and fast-colonizing temperate forest herbs along a latitudinal gradient2009In: Ecoscience, ISSN 1195-6860, Vol. 16, p. 248-257Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Predictions on displacement of suitable habitats due to climate change suggest that plant species with poor colonization ability may be unable to move fast enough to match forecasted climate-induced changes in habitat distribution. However, studies on early Holocene plant migration show fast migration of many plant species that are poor colonizers today We hypothesize that warmer temperatures during the early Holocene yielded higher seed quality, contributing to explaining the fast migration. We studied how the 3 seed quality variables, seed mass, germinability, and requirements for break of seed dormancy, vary for seeds of 11 forest herb species with varying colonization capacity collected along a 1400-km latitudinal gradient. Within species, seed mass showed a positive correlation with latitude, whereas germinability was more positively correlated with temperature (growing degree hours obtained at time of seed collection). Only slow-colonizing species increased germinability with temperature, whereas only fast-colonizing species increased germinability with latitude. These interactions were only detectable when analyzing germinability of the seeds, even though this trait and seed mass were correlated. The requirement for dormancy break did not correlate with latitude or temperature. The results indicate that seed development of slow colonizers may be favoured by a warmer climate, which in turn may be important for their migration capacity.

  • 40. Gunnarson, Björn E
    et al.
    Josefsson, Torbjörn
    Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences.
    Linderholm, Hans W
    Östlund, Lars
    Legacies of pre-industrial land use can bias modern tree-ring climate calibrations2012In: Climate Research (CR), ISSN 0936-577X, E-ISSN 1616-1572, Vol. 53, no 1, p. 63-76Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In Scandinavia, dendrochronological reconstructions of past climate have mostly been based on tree-ring data from forests in which there has been, supposedly, very little or no human impact. However, human land use in sub-alpine forests has a substantially longer history and more profound effects on the forest ecosystems than previously acknowledged. Therefore, to assess human influence on tree-ring patterns over the last 500 yr, we have analyzed tree-ring patterns using trees from 2 abandoned Sami settlements and a reference site with no human impact-all situated in the Tjeggelvas Nature Reserve in north-west Sweden. The hypothesis was that land use legacies have affected tree-ring patterns, and in turn, the resulting palaeoclimate inferences that have been made from these patterns. Our results show that climate signals are strongest at the reference site and weakest at one of the settlement sites. From the 1940s to the present, tree growth at this settlement site has been significantly lower than at the reference site. Lower tree growth at old settlements may have resulted from rapid changes in the traditional land use, or following the abrupt change when the settlements were abandoned. Without site-specific know ledge of past land use, there is a high risk of accidently sampling trees that have been affected by human-induced disturbances in the past. This may create bias in the climate signals inferred from such trees, and hence bias the outcome of climate reconstructions. We therefore recommend sampling several separate sites in study areas to improve the robustness of inferences.

  • 41.
    Hein, Catherine L.
    et al.
    Abisko Sci Res Stn, CIRC, Abisko, Sweden.
    Öhlund, Gunnar
    Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences.
    Englund, Göran
    Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences.
    Future distribution of Arctic Char Salvelinus alpinus in Sweden under climate change: Effects of temperature, lake size and species interactions2012In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 41, no 3, p. 303-312Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Novel communities will be formed as species with a variety of dispersal abilities and environmental tolerances respond individually to climate change. Thus, models projecting future species distributions must account for species interactions and differential dispersal abilities. We developed a species distribution model for Arctic char Salvelinus alpinus, a freshwater fish that is sensitive both to warm temperatures and to species interactions. A logistic regression model using lake area, mean annual air temperature (1961-1990), pike Esox lucius and brown trout Salmo trutta occurrence correctly classified 95 % of 467 Swedish lakes. We predicted that Arctic char will lose 73 % of its range in Sweden by 2100. Predicted extinctions could be attributed both to simulated temperature increases and to projected pike invasions. The Swedish mountains will continue to provide refugia for Arctic char in the future and should be the focus of conservation efforts for this highly valued fish.

  • 42. Herrmann, Alina
    et al.
    Fischer, Helen
    Amelung, Dorothee
    Litvine, Dorian
    Aall, Carlo
    Andersson, Camilla
    Umeå University, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Epidemiology and Global Health.
    Baltruszewicz, Marta
    Barbier, Carine
    Bruyere, Sebastien
    Benevise, Francoise
    Dubois, Ghislain
    Louis, Valerie R.
    Nilsson, Maria
    Umeå University, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Epidemiology and Global Health.
    Moberg, Karen Richardsen
    Sköld, Bore
    Umeå University, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Epidemiology and Global Health.
    Sauerborn, Rainer
    Household preferences for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in four European high-income countries: Does health information matter? A mixed-methods study protocol2017In: BMC Public Health, ISSN 1471-2458, E-ISSN 1471-2458, Vol. 18, article id 71Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Background: It is now universally acknowledged that climate change constitutes a major threat to human health. At the same time, some of the measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, so-called climate change mitigation measures, have significant health co-benefits (e.g., walking or cycling more; eating less meat). The goal of limiting global warming to 1,5° Celsius set by the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in Paris in 2015 can only be reached if all stakeholders, including households, take actions to mitigate climate change. Results on whether framing mitigation measures in terms of their health co-benefits increases the likelihood of their implementation are inconsistent. The present study protocol describes the transdisciplinary project HOPE (HOuseholds’ Preferences for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in four European high-income countries) that investigates the role of health co-benefits in households’ decision making on climate change mitigation measures in urban households in France, Germany, Norway and Sweden.

    Methods: HOPE employs a mixed-methods approach combining status-quo carbon footprint assessments, simulations of the reduction of households’ carbon footprints, and qualitative in-depth interviews with a subgroup of households. Furthermore, a policy analysis of current household oriented climate policies is conducted. In the simulation of the reduction of households’ carbon footprints, half of the households are provided with information on health co-benefits of climate change mitigation measures, the other half is not. Households’ willingness to implement the measures is assessed and compared in between-group analyses of variance.

    Discussion: This is one of the first comprehensive mixed-methods approaches to investigate which mitigation measures households are most willing to implement in order to reach the 1,5° target set by the Paris Agreement, and whether health co-benefits can serve as a motivator for households to implement these measures. The comparison of the empirical data with current climate policies will provide knowledge for tailoring effective climate change mitigation and health policies.

  • 43. Heskel, Mary A.
    et al.
    O'Sullivan, Odhran S.
    Reich, Peter B.
    Tjoelker, Mark G.
    Weerasinghe, Lasantha K.
    Penillard, Aurore
    Egerton, John J. G.
    Creek, Danielle
    Bloomfield, Keith J.
    Xiang, Jen
    Sinca, Felipe
    Stangl, Zsofia R.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Plant Physiology. Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Umeå Plant Science Centre (UPSC).
    Martinez-de la Torre, Alberto
    Griffin, Kevin L.
    Huntingford, Chris
    Hurry, Vaughan
    Meir, Patrick
    Turnbull, Matthew H.
    Atkin, Owen K.
    Convergence in the temperature response of leaf respiration across biomes and plant functional types2016In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, ISSN 0027-8424, E-ISSN 1091-6490, Vol. 113, no 14, p. 3832-3837Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Plant respiration constitutes a massive carbon flux to the atmosphere, and a major control on the evolution of the global carbon cycle. It therefore has the potential to modulate levels of climate change due to the human burning of fossil fuels. Neither current physiological nor terrestrial biosphere models adequately describe its short-term temperature response, and even minor differences in the shape of the response curve can significantly impact estimates of ecosystem carbon release and/or storage. Given this, it is critical to establish whether there are predictable patterns in the shape of the respiration-temperature response curve, and thus in the intrinsic temperature sensitivity of respiration across the globe. Analyzing measurements in a comprehensive database for 231 species spanning 7 biomes, we demonstrate that temperature-dependent increases in leaf respiration do not follow a commonly used exponential function. Instead, we find a decelerating function as leaves warm, reflecting a declining sensitivity to higher temperatures that is remarkably uniform across all biomes and plant functional types. Such convergence in the temperature sensitivity of leaf respiration suggests that there are universally applicable controls on the temperature response of plant energy metabolism, such that a single new function can predict the temperature dependence of leaf respiration for global vegetation. This simple function enables straightforward description of plant respiration in the land-surface components of coupled earth system models. Our cross-biome analyses shows significant implications for such fluxes in cold climates, generally projecting lower values compared with previous estimates.

  • 44.
    Hof, Anouschka R.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences.
    Alien species in a warming climate: a case study of the nutcracker and stone pines2015In: Biological Invasions, ISSN 1387-3547, E-ISSN 1573-1464, Vol. 17, no 5, p. 1533-1543Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Species are predicted to shift their geographic range with climate change, which increases the need for good conservation planning and management practices. Not only may climate change increase the number of invasive species in parts of the world, it may also lead to some species becoming invasive under new, more preferable, climatic conditions. This study investigates whether climate change may enhance the spread of alien species by another alien species. I use the interaction between the alien slender-billed nutcracker and alien, potentially invasive, stone pines as a case-study and specifically aim to quantify to which extent the potential spread of stone pine species in Sweden in a warming climate is augmented by its dispersal agent: the slender-billed nutcracker. I found that accounting for the future climatic niche of the slender-billed nutcracker, and therefore for its potential presence, significantly augmented the increase of the predicted future range of the stone pines under climate change. This result does not only stress the importance of accounting for species interactions when assessing the impact of climate change on species' future geographic ranges, it also stresses the need for nature conservationists and managers to incorporate species interactions and climate change when designing appropriate plans with regard to invasive species. Although the implications of the predicted future spread of the slender-billed nutcracker might be limited, since the very similar thick-billed nutcracker is native to Sweden, the effects of the stone pines should not be neglected. They are currently classified as potentially invasive in parts of the Nordic region.

  • 45.
    Holmner, Åsa
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Radiation Sciences.
    Ebi, Kristie L
    Umeå University, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Epidemiology and Global Health. ClimAdapt, LLC, Seattle, Washington, United States of America.
    Lazuardi, Lutfan
    Department of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Gadjah Mada University, Yogyakarta, Indonesia.
    Nilsson, Maria
    Umeå University, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Epidemiology and Global Health.
    Carbon footprint of telemedicine solutions - unexplored opportunity for reducing carbon emissions in the health sector2014In: PLoS ONE, ISSN 1932-6203, E-ISSN 1932-6203, Vol. 9, no 9, article id e105040Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    BACKGROUND: The healthcare sector is a significant contributor to global carbon emissions, in part due to extensive travelling by patients and health workers.

    OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the potential of telemedicine services based on videoconferencing technology to reduce travelling and thus carbon emissions in the healthcare sector.

    METHODS: A life cycle inventory was performed to evaluate the carbon reduction potential of telemedicine activities beyond a reduction in travel related emissions. The study included two rehabilitation units at Umeå University Hospital in Sweden. Carbon emissions generated during telemedicine appointments were compared with care-as-usual scenarios. Upper and lower bound emissions scenarios were created based on different teleconferencing solutions and thresholds for when telemedicine becomes favorable were estimated. Sensitivity analyses were performed to pinpoint the most important contributors to emissions for different set-ups and use cases.

    RESULTS: Replacing physical visits with telemedicine appointments resulted in a significant 40-70 times decrease in carbon emissions. Factors such as meeting duration, bandwidth and use rates influence emissions to various extents. According to the lower bound scenario, telemedicine becomes a greener choice at a distance of a few kilometers when the alternative is transport by car.

    CONCLUSIONS: Telemedicine is a potent carbon reduction strategy in the health sector. But to contribute significantly to climate change mitigation, a paradigm shift might be required where telemedicine is regarded as an essential component of ordinary health care activities and not only considered to be a service to the few who lack access to care due to geography, isolation or other constraints.

  • 46. Holopainen, Reetta
    et al.
    Lehtiniemi, Maiju
    Meier, H. E. Markus
    Albertsson, Jan
    Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Umeå Marine Sciences Centre (UMF).
    Gorokhova, Elena
    Kotta, Jonne
    Viitasalo, Markku
    Impacts of changing climate on the non-indigenous invertebrates in the northern Baltic Sea by end of the twenty-first century2016In: Biological Invasions, ISSN 1387-3547, E-ISSN 1573-1464, Vol. 18, no 10, p. 3015-3032Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Biological invasions coupled with climate change drive changes in marine biodiversity. Warming climate and changes in hydrology may either enable or hinder the spread of non-indigenous species (NIS) and little is known about how climate change modifies the richness and impacts of NIS in specific sea areas. We calculated from climate change simulations (RCO-SCOBI model) the changes in summer time conditions which northern Baltic Sea may to go through by the end of the twenty-first century, e.g., 2-5 A degrees C sea surface temperature rise and even up to 1.75 unit decrease in salinity. We reviewed the temperature and salinity tolerances (i.e., physiological tolerances and occurrence ranges in the field) of pelagic and benthic NIS established in-or with dispersal potential to-the northern Baltic Sea, and assessed how climate change will likely affect them. Our findings suggest a future decrease in barnacle larvae and an increase in Ponto-Caspian cladocerans in the pelagic community. In benthos, polychaetes, gastropods and decapods may become less abundant. By contrast, dreissenid bivalves, amphipods and mysids are expected to widen their distribution and increase in abundance in the coastal areas of the northern Baltic Sea. Potential salinity decrease acts as a major driver for NIS biogeography in the northern Baltic Sea, but temperature increase and extended summer season allow higher reproduction success in bivalves, zooplankton, amphipods and mysids. Successful NIS, i.e., coastal crustacean and bivalve species, pose a risk to native biota, as many of them have already demonstrated harmful effects in the Baltic Sea.

  • 47. Hu, Xian-Ge
    et al.
    Jin, Yuqing
    Wang, Xiao-Ru
    Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences.
    Mao, Jian-Feng
    Li, Yue
    Predicting Impacts of Future Climate Change on the Distribution of the Widespread Conifer Platycladus orientalis2015In: PLoS ONE, ISSN 1932-6203, E-ISSN 1932-6203, Vol. 10, no 7, article id e0132326Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Chinese thuja (Platycladus orientalis) has a wide but fragmented distribution in China. It is an important conifer tree in reforestation and plays important roles in ecological restoration in the arid mountains of northern China. Based on high-resolution environmental data for current and future scenarios, we modeled the present and future suitable habitat for P. orientalis, evaluated the importance of environmental factors in shaping the species' distribution, and identified regions of high risk under climate change scenarios. The niche models showed that P. orientalis has suitable habitat of ca. 4.2x10(6) km(2) across most of eastern China and identified annual temperature, monthly minimum and maximum ultraviolet-B radiation and wet-day frequency as the critical factors shaping habitat availability for P. orientalis. Under the low concentration greenhouse gas emissions scenario, the range of the species may increase as global warming intensifies; however, under the higher concentrations of emissions scenario, we predicted a slight expansion followed by contraction in distribution. Overall, the range shift to higher latitudes and elevations would become gradually more significant. The information gained from this study should be an useful reference for implementing long-term conservation and management strategies for the species.

  • 48.
    Isles, Peter D. F.
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences. Rubenstein Ecosystem Science Laboratory, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT, USA; Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT, USA; Vermont EPSCoR, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT, USA.
    Xu, Yaoyang
    Stockwell, Jason D.
    Schroth, Andrew W.
    Climate-driven changes in energy and mass inputs systematically alter nutrient concentration and stoichiometry in deep and shallow regions of Lake Champlain2017In: Biogeochemistry, ISSN 0168-2563, E-ISSN 1573-515X, Vol. 133, no 2, p. 201-217Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Concentrations of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) in lakes may be differentially impacted by climate-driven changes in nutrient loading and by direct impacts of temperature and wind speed on internal nutrient cycling. Such changes may result in systematic shifts in lake N:P under future climate warming. We used 21 years of monitoring data to compare long-term and intra-annual trends in total N (TN), total P (TP) and TN:TP at 15 sites in Lake Champlain to concurrent measurements of watershed nutrient inputs and meteorological drivers. TN:TP declined sharply lake-wide, particularly in the past decade, yet the drivers of this trend varied based on site depth. In deep sites, declines were driven by changes in watershed loading of dissolved P and N and (in some cases) by decreases in hypolimnetic dissolved oxygen. In shallow sites, declines in TN:TP were primarily driven by long-term increases in temperature and decreases in wind speed, and exhibited systematic seasonal variability in TN:TP due to the timing of sediment P loading, N removal processes, and external nutrient inputs. We developed a conceptual model to explain the observed trends, and suggest that while climate drivers have affected nutrient dynamics in shallow and deep sites differently, both deep and shallow sites are likely to experience further declines in N:P and increases in cyanobacteria dominance if recent climate trends continue.

  • 49.
    Jacobson, Holger
    Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences.
    The East Asian Summer Monsoon: A comparison of present, Holocene and Eemian climate2014Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (One Year)), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
    Abstract [en]

    The East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) is a major component in Asian climate. It is largely driven by climatic factors such as humidity, solar insolation and temperature. For at least 50 years the EASM has been studied extensively by scientists regarding its current strength. Models have been recreating past monsoon intensity as well as attempted to predict future intensity. As the monsoon undergoes changes, the climatic shifts responsible for them leave various traces behind; geochemical as well as biological, and these have been preserved and recorded in various locales on the planet. The most significant climatic change is the variation between glacial and interglacial periods which have been alternating for the last 2.6 million years and the EASM has changed in tune with the climate during this time. The EASM follows the δ18O-record in speleothems found in Eastern Asia as well as in ice cores from Greenland. Various geochemical and biological tracers seem to reflect these fluctuations in climate locally as well as globally over a 200 kyr period. The current intensity of the EASM seems to be one of decreasing strength, a phase that has persisted since the Holocene climatic optimum 8.5 kyr ago. Recently however a decrease in the East Asian Winter Monsoon has been confirmed, indicating an increase in EASM intensity. During the Holocene the EASM reached peak intensity during the Holocene climatic optimum but has fluctuated largely in tune with solar insolation. This is also true for the Eemian period although some events such as the mid-Eemian cooling show that factors other than solar insolation regulate monsoon intensity over large time periods. The future of the EASM seems to be one of increased strength due to climate change and models predict both increased wind speeds and an increasing occurrence of extreme precipitation despite decreasing solar insolation.

  • 50.
    Jonsson, Micael
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences.
    Canhoto, Cristina
    Climate change and freshwater invertebrates: their role in reciprocal freshwater-terrestrial resource fluxes2017In: Global climate change and terrestrial invertebrates / [ed] Scott N. Johnson, T. Hefin Jones, Chichester, UK.: John Wiley & Sons, 2017, p. 274-294Chapter in book (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This chapter overviews how climate change might alter resource fluxes between terrestrial and freshwater systems and focuses on the intermediary role of freshwater invertebrates. Global climate change will affect terrestrial vegetation in multiple but different ways at a regional level. Because mean annual temperature and global terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP) are positively correlated, and as northern regions are expected to experience the greatest increase in mean annual temperature, increases in NPP will likely be more pronounced at high latitudes and at high elevations. As a consequence of increased terrestrial NPP and increased precipitation, higher levels of organic matter are available to the soil layer. Freshwater systems ‐ especially in northern regions ‐ are predicted to receive increased amounts of dissolved organic matter (DOM) from terrestrial runoff. Freshwater invertebrate secondary production and community composition are closely related with terrestrial input characteristics.

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