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  • 1. Asplund, Disa
    et al.
    Westin, Jonas
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Regional Science (CERUM).
    Modellering av slingor inom sjötransporter2017Report (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The Swedish national freight transport model system Samgods is a freight model that simulates logistics decision at a disaggregated firm-to-firm level. The model calculates total annual transport demand in Sweden for all transport modes based on a deterministic cost minimization approach. The model cannot consolidate commodities of different commodity types in the same vessel, train or truck and can only simulate vessels using direct routes between two ports. This implies that many of the features of sea transport such as utilizing larger vessels and building loops to consolidate goods from different ports is not possible in the current Samgods version. In this paper, we analyze the effect of removing restrictions in sea transportation especially by allowing the ship operators to construct and utilize loops. In the new model, LIFREM (Loops Including FREight Model), the shippers’ choice of sea transport routes is modelled as a mixed integer linear programming optimization problem. In doing so, we make use of a case study on sea transport of forest products from Northern Sweden to Western Europe. The results show that allowing predefined loops decreases total logistic cost by 10% and allowing the shipper to freely select loops decreases the cost by 21%. These results show that modelling of loops is important in order to realistically represent the attractiveness of the sea transport mode. This is also confirmed by the fact that the sea mode share increases by 2–4% in LIFREM when loops are allowed.

  • 2. Carlsson, Fredrik
    et al.
    Lampi, Elina
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics.
    Martinsson, Peter
    The marginal values of noise disturbance from air traffic: does the time of the day matter?2004In: Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, ISSN 1361-9209, E-ISSN 1879-2340, Vol. 9, no 5, p. 373-385Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper analyzes the marginal willingness to pay for changes in noise levels related to changes in the volume of flight movements at a city airport in Stockholm, Sweden, by using a choice experiment. When estimating marginal willingness to pay for different times of the day and days of the week, we find that these vary with the temporal dimensions: mornings and evenings have higher marginal values. Interestingly, a substantial proportion of the respondents prefer no changes in the current noise level. The paper concludes with a policy discussion related to incentive-based pricing.

  • 3. Eriksson, Lars
    et al.
    Palmqvist, Lisa
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Psychology.
    Andersson Hultgren, Jonas
    Blissing, Björn
    Nordin, Steven
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Psychology.
    Performance and presence with head-movement produced motion parallax in simulated driving2015In: Transportation Research Part F: Traffic Psychology and Behaviour, ISSN 1369-8478, E-ISSN 1873-5517, Vol. 34, p. 54-64Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Driving simulator studies can reveal relevant and valid aspects of driving behavior, but underestimation of distance and speed can negatively affect the driver's performance, such as in performance of overtaking. One possible explanation for the underestimation of distance and speed is that two-dimensional projection of the visual scene disrupts the monocular-based illusory depth because of conflicting binocular and monocular information of depth. A possible solution might involve the strengthening of the monocular information so that the binocular information becomes less potent. In the present study, we used an advanced high-fidelity driving simulator to investigate whether adding the visual depth information of motion parallax from head movement affects sense of presence, judgment of distance and speed, and performance measures coupled with overtaking. The simulations included two types of driving scenario in which one was urban and the other was rural. The main results show no effect of this head-movement produced motion parallax on sense of presence, head movement, time to collision, distance judgment, or speed judgment. However, the results show an effect on lateral positioning. When initiating the overtaking maneuver there is a lateral positioning farther away from the road center as effect of the motion parallax in both types of scenario, which can be interpreted as indicating use of naturally occurring information that change behavior at overtaking. Nevertheless, only showing tendencies of effects, absent is any clear additional impact of this motion parallax in the simulated driving.

  • 4.
    Garvill, Jörgen
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Psychology.
    Gärling, Fredrik
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Transportation Research Unit (TRUM).
    Marell, Agneta
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE).
    Westin, Kerstin
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Social and Economic Geography.
    Smart fart: Rekrytering av testförare och montering av fartkollare2001Report (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 5.
    Jonsson, Daniel R.
    et al.
    Kungliga Tekniska Högskolan.
    Adolphsson, Marcus
    Kungliga Tekniska Högskolan.
    Westin, Jonas
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Regional Science (CERUM).
    Regionala systemanalyser2015Report (Other academic)
  • 6.
    Persson, Sabina
    Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Mathematics and Mathematical Statistics.
    Optimering av lastplatser i leveransnätverk: Ett examensarbete utfört på uppdrag av Pågen AB2016Independent thesis Advanced level (professional degree), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesis
    Abstract [sv]

    Pågen har i dagsläget 61 lastplatser runtom i Sverige där deras egen säljkår lastar brödpallarna på sina lastbilar. Respektive säljare kör sedan en förutbestämd rutt där de själva distribuerar försäljningen på respektive butik.

    Syftet med rapporten är att analysera Pågens lastplatser för att undersöka var det finns möjlighet till nedläggningar som kan leda till kostnadsbesparingar. Dessa kostnadsbesparingar får dock inte resultera i minskad försäljningstid ute hos kund eller orimligt höga dieselkostnader.

    Projektet avgränsades till de lastplatser som låg närmre än fyra mil ifrån varandra samt två olika tripplar. Det har inneburit en omfattande nulägesanalys samt datainsamling för att få en helhetsbild av hur nätverket ser ut i dagsläget. Därefter skapades först en Matlabmodell för tyngdpunktsmetoden för lastplatserna Ljungby och Värnamo, sedan en Pythonmodell som kopplades till Google Maps API för att kunna utvärdera avståndsförändringen vid nedläggning av en lastplats samt dieselkostnaderna.

    Resultatet från Pythonmodellen sammanställdes manuellt i olika tabeller för att sedan ligga till grund för alla möjliga scenarion. Dessa scenarion ställdes upp i olika vektorer med en uträkning av vinsten för respektive, där tanken var att de skulle ligga till grund för ett matchningsproblem. På grund av resultatet som genererades behövdes det steget dock inte genomföras.

    Den slutgiltiga rekommendationen till Pågen är att de ska fortsätta en nedläggning av lastplatsen i Falkenberg. Vid en nedläggning av denna med flytt av rutterna till Varberg skulle vinsten bli 13 624,8 SEK/månad vid jämförelse av ökade dieselkostnader samt intjänad hyra vid nedläggning.

  • 7.
    Vierth, Inge
    et al.
    VTI, Statens väg- och transportforskningsinstitut.
    Karlsson, Rune
    VTI, Statens väg- och transportforskningsinstitut.
    Westin, Jonas
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Regional Science (CERUM).
    Validering av sjötransporter i Samgodsmodellen Version 1.12016Report (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The project analyzes how well sea transports are modelled in the Swedish national freight model system Samgods. This first report comprises a short description of Version 1.1 of the model including calibration, a comparison of model results and statistics in 2012 as well as sensitivity analyses to test how the model reacts to different types of interventions. The second report, VTI notat 31-2016 Modeling of loops in maritime transport – Case Study of SCA's RoRo operations in the Baltic Sea, examines how big the problem is that Samgods does not model loops (vessels calling more than two ports during a trip). The existing Samgods model is a deterministic cost-minimizing model. It consists of several partially interacting modules: a) base matrices that describe the demand for 32 commodities, b) the logistics model that contains submodules for the choice of consignment size, consolidation of shipments from different senders, choice of transport chains, treatment of empty transports etc. and c) the rail capacity management tools (RCM) addressing capacity constraints in the Swedish rail network. The calibration of the model focuses on tonne-km and modal split in Sweden as well as different regional distributions of the tonnes transported, but the distribution over vessels types is not taken into account. Our analyses show that the model calculates about four times as many tonnes transported by container vessels than the statistics. We see a need to check if the input data used for the modelling of container transports (vs conventional transports) is realistic. Throughput (loaded/unloaded tonnes goods) was calibrated for 14 coastal sections and twelve aggregated commodities. However, we believe that the throughput per port should be a calibration target. The distribution of the gods on the ports is crucial in analyses of investments in fairways, locks etc. Furthermore, the distribution of the port calls vessel categories and -size classes was not a calibration target. We show that Samgods model overestimates the number of calls to all freight vessels with about 50 percent. The number of container vessel calls is about five times higher as in the Swedish Maritime Administration’s database. The number of roro-vessel calls is about two times as high. The conformity for the other vessels is very good. One explanation for the fact that number of container vessel calls is overestimated is of course that the amount of tonnes transported in containers is overestimated considerably. We show that almost all container vessels are expected to be in the model’s smallest of four size classes (up to 5 300 dead weight tonnes). The results indicate that Samgods is not able to model the use of larger container vessels due to the exploitation of economies of scale (which is very common in reality). The result for ro-ro vessels goes in the same direction but is not that extreme. For other vessels, the results are more consistent with the statistics. We think it is important to distinguish between different vessel types and with different production systems in the modelling. The load factors for loaded vehicles (and empty transports) were not part of the calibration. Today it is not possible to validate loading factors in various vehicles and vessels against statistics. The model calculates higher load factors for road (75–94 percent) and rail (86–97 percent) than for sea transports (0–73percent). Given the existing model only allows for consolidation within the 32 commodities, we tested the aggregation to twelve commodities. The results show that this contributes to a higher share for sea transports and the use of larger vessels size classes. This indicates that a higher degree of 10 VTI notat 30-2016 consolidation is achieved with fewer commodities. The same applies to a hypothetical doubling or tenfold increase in freight transport demand. In the latter two analyses, it becomes obvious that the potential of the rail mode to consolidate more is limited because both trains and rail infrastructure are well utilized in the base. Regarding consolidation, there are parallels between rail and sea and we think it would be interesting to study the similarities and differences in modeling.

  • 8.
    Westin, Jonas
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Regional Science (CERUM).
    Fördjupade godsflödesanalyser för Trafikverket region Nord och Mitt2016Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    Denna rapport är framtagen och finansierad på uppdrag av Trafikverket Region Nord och Region Mitt. Syftet med rapporten har varit är att genomföra en fördjupad analys av godsflöden längs vägar, järnvägar och sjörutter i Trafikverkets region Nord och Mitt så som de beskrivs i Trafikverkets Samgodsmodell. Trafikverkets Samgodsmodell är central för Trafikverkets inriktnings- och åtgärdsplanering, vid skapandet av en lägesbild över godsflöden och godstransportefterfrågan i regionen är det därför viktigt att bygga arbetet utifrån denna modell. I ett tidigare projekt har en lägesbild över godstransportefterfrågan i Trafikverkets regioner Nord och Mitt baserat på data från Trafikverkets Samgodsmodell redovisats. Målsättningen med detta projekt har varit att fördjupa och analysera resultat från detta tidigare arbete.

  • 9.
    Westin, Jonas
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Regional Science (CERUM).
    Förslag på process för fortsatt arbete med regional systemanalys och länstransportplaner i Norrbotten och Västerbotten2015Report (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 10.
    Westin, Jonas
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Regional Science (CERUM).
    de Jong, Gerard
    Significance.
    Vierth, Inge
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute (VTI).
    Krüger, Niclas
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute (VTI).
    Karlsson, Rune
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute (VTI).
    Johansson, Magnus
    Transport Analysis.
    Baserunning - analyzing the sensitivity and economies of scale of the Swedish national freight model system using stochastic production-consumption-matrices2015Report (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The purpose of the paper is to analyze how sensitive the Swedish national freight model system Samgods is to uncertainties in its production-consumption matrices (PC-matrices). This is done by studying how sensitive outputs from one of its key component, the logistics model, are to changes in the PC-matrices. This paper is, to our knowledge, the first attempt to analyze the sensitivity and economies of scale of a national freight transport model using Monte Carlo simulation. The results indicate that the logistics model is able to find new logistics solutions when larger demand volumes are assumed. Freight volumes are calculated to shift to sea transport. If the transport volume increases with one percent, the logistics cost per tonne is on average reduced by about 0.5 percent. Part of the cost reduction comes from increased consolidation of shipments due to larger transport volumes. There is also a positive correlation between total transport demand and the load factor for heavier lorries, trains and larger ships. Without empirical data and further analysis it is difficult to assess the estimated strength of the effect. Furthermore, the analysis indicates that it might be possible to reduce runtimes by removing small transport flows from the PC-matrices without affecting aggregate results too much.

  • 11.
    Westin, Jonas
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Regional Science (CERUM).
    Forsgren, Andreas
    Infrastructure planning: a challenge for cross-border cooperation2015Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 12.
    Westin, Jonas
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Regional Science (CERUM).
    Forsgren, Andreas
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Regional Science (CERUM).
    Infrastructure planning: A challenge for cross-border cooperation2014Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The paper describes national infrastructure planning in Finland, Sweden and Norway as well as the tools and guidelines which are used for cost-receipts analysis at the national level. Special focus will be directed towards cross-border infrastructure and the extent to which the national planning process permits national and cross-border infrastructure projects to be compared on the same terms and conditions. Given that national and cross-border infrastructure projects cannot be compared on the same terms and conditions with existing evaluation methods, the risk of sub-optimal infrastructure allocations is immediate.

  • 13.
    Westin, Jonas
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Regional Science (CERUM).
    Forsgren, Andreas
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Regional Science (CERUM).
    Modellering av konkurrenskraft och geografiskt upptagningsområde hos en intermodal godstransportkorridor över Kvarken2014Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    Syftet med rapporten är att analysera konkurrenskraft, geografiskt marknadsområde och potential att attrahera långväga öst-västliga transitflöden till en intermodal transportkorridor i Botnia-Atlanticaregionen. Genom att utveckla en simuleringsmodell har effekter på godsflöden, transittrafik och långväga transitflöden längs det öst-västliga stråket analyserats. Centrala moment i processen har varit insamling, sammanställning och analys av befintlig statistik samt modellering och simulering av godsflöden och intermodala transportkostnader i norra Europa. En frågeställning som projektet försökt att besvara är vilken potential en förstärkt godskorridor från Nordland, genom Västerbotten, till Österbotten och vidare ner mot södra Finland, Baltikum och Ryssland har att attrahera långväga transitflöden.Denna rapport har tagits fram inom ramen för projektet SimLab East-West.

  • 14.
    Westin, Jonas
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Regional Science (CERUM).
    Sörensson, Robert
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Regional Science (CERUM).
    Potential Freight Volumes of the Kvarken Ferry Link: Base Report to the Midway Alignment project2014Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The Kvarken Ferry Link is a maritime transport connection between Sweden and Finland. This report is a deliverable from the Centre for Regional Science (CERUM) at Umeå University to the Midway Alignment project. The purpose of the report is to analyse the freight demand for the ferry by estimating the maximum potential freight transport in the catchment area of the ferry. The analysis is based on a model analysis of the maximum potential freight volumes in the catchment area of the ferry across the Kvarken strait using input data from the Swedish national freight modelling system Samgods. The results are combined with a scenario analysis where the effect of different forecasts for the Kvarken ferry is studied. The analysis might serve as an input in a subsequent analysis of the market potential and transport demand for the ferry link between Vaasa in Finland and Umeå in Sweden.

  • 15.
    Westin, Jonas
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Regional Science (CERUM). KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Sweden.
    Vierth, Inge
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute (VTI).
    de Jong, Gerard
    Significance, Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds, and CTS, Sweden.
    Karlsson, Rune
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute (VTI).
    Krüger, Niclas A.
    Örebro University.
    Johansson, Magnus
    Transport Analysis.
    Analyzing model uncertainty and economies of scale of the Swedish national freight model to changes in transport demand2016In: European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research, ISSN 1567-7133, E-ISSN 1567-7141, Vol. 16, no 4, p. 619-632Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The purpose of the paper is to analyze model uncertainty and economies of scale of the Swedish national freight transport model system Samgods to changes in its zone-to-zone base matrices. Even though economies of scale is important for freight transport, few studies analyze model uncertainty and economies of scale at a national level. Compared to many large scale networkbased freight models working on aggregated transport flows, an important feature in Samgods is that it simulates logistics behavior at a disaggregated firm level. The paper studies effects on total tonne- and vehicle-kilometre, modal split, consolidation and logistics costs when the base matrices are scaled up and down and estimates economies of scale for Swedish freight transports. The results indicate that the logistics model can find new logistics solutions for larger demand volumes, mainly by shifting freight to sea transport. If transport volume increases with one percent, average logistics cost per tonne is reduced by around 0.5 percent. Part of the cost reduction comes from increased consolidation of shipments due to larger transport volumes. The results derived in the paper can serve as a reference for empirical validation and comparisons with other large scale freight models. The paper is a first contribution that tries to fill the knowledge gap on the impact of base matrices on transport model outcomes, such as economies of scale, in the context of a full-fledged real-world freight transport model.

  • 16.
    Westin, Jonas
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Regional Science (CERUM).
    Westin, Lars
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Regional Science (CERUM).
    Olsson, Olof
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Geography and Economic History, Economic and social geography.
    Norin, Henrik
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Regional Science (CERUM).
    Godsflödesanalyser för Trafikverket region Nord och Mitt2016Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    Denna rapport är framtagen och finansierad på uppdrag av Trafikverket Region Nord och Region Mitt. Syftet med rapporten har varit är att sammanställa och redovisa godsflöden längs vägar, järnvägar och sjörutter i Trafikverkets region Nord och Mitt så som de beskrivs i Trafikverkets Samgodsmodell. Trafikverkets Samgodsmodell är central för Trafikverkets inriktnings- och åtgärdsplanering, vid skapandet av en lägesbild över godsflöden och godstransportefterfrågan i regionen är det därför viktigt att bygga arbetet utifrån denna modell.

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