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  • 1. Goettel, Holger
    et al.
    Alexander, Jorn
    Keup-Thiel, Elke
    Rechid, Diana
    Hagemann, Stefan
    Blome, Tanja
    Wolf, Annett
    Umeå University. ETH Zentrum, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland.
    Jacob, Daniela
    Influence of changed vegetations fields on regional climate simulations in the Barents Sea Region2008In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 87, no 1-2, p. 35-50Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In the context of the EU-Project BALANCE (http://balance-eu.info) the regional climate model REMO was used for extensive calculations of the Barents Sea climate to investigate the vulnerability of this region to climate change. The regional climate model REMO simulated the climate change of the Barents Sea Region between 1961 and 2100 (Control and Climate Change run, CCC-Run). REMO on similar to 50 km horizontal resolution was driven by the transient ECHAM4/OPYC3 IPCC SRES B2 scenario. The output of the CCC-Run was applied to drive the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS. The results of the vegetation model were used to repeat the CCC-Run with dynamic vegetation fields. The feedback effect of the modified vegetation on the climate change signal is investigated and discussed with focus on precipitation, temperature and snow cover. The effect of the offline coupled vegetation feedback run is much lower than the greenhouse gas effect.

  • 2.
    Keskitalo, E. Carina H.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Social and Economic Geography.
    Vulnerability and adaptive capacity in forestry in northern Europe: a Swedish case study2008In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 87, no 1/2, p. 219-234Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Climate change is likely to present new and substantially unpredictable challenges to human societies. The prospect is of particular concern at the local and regional levels, since vulnerability and adaptive capacity are location-specific and many decisions regarding climate-induced risks are made at those levels. In this light, one is compelled to survey stakeholders’ understandings of their situation and perceived problems. Assessments should also include the context of other ongoing changes, such as globalisation, that will impact communities and exacerbate their vulnerabilities. This paper presents an assessment of vulnerability and adaptive capacity in the forestry sector in the Pite River basin in northern Sweden. The study was carried out using a multi-method design encompassing literature surveys, interviews with stakeholders, and stakeholder meetings. The paper concludes that while climate change will have an impact on the region, its effect will be superseded by that of broader socio-economic changes. The results illustrate the need to understand local and regional perceptions of adaptation in formulating appropriate policy measures.

  • 3.
    Lundmark, Linda
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Social and Economic Geography.
    Pashkevich, Albina
    Jansson, Bruno
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Social and Economic Geography.
    Wiberg, Ulf
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Social and Economic Geography.
    Effects of climate change and extreme events on forest communities in the European North2008In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 87, no 1-2, p. 235-249Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The European north is increasingly affected by changes in climate and climate variability. These changes and their causes are global in scope but specific impacts vary considerably between different regions. Recent incidents and events show that forest-resource based regions have difficulties in alleviating adverse effects of these changes. Also, the future socio-economic impact is to date unexplored. Norrbotten in Sweden, Lappi in Finland and Arkhangelsk oblast in Russia are regions that differ significantly in terms of their socio-economic characteristics and capacities. A modified employment multiplier model is used to predict future changes. Scenarios of changing forest resources provide quantitative estimations of the sensitivity of regional employment. These estimates are used to assess and discuss the adaptive capacities of the regions. Results show that Arkhangelsk oblast is more vulnerable to climate variability than Norrbotten and Lappi. This is due to the continued dependency on natural resources in combination with different capacities to counteract negative effects or to take advantage of the opportunities offered by climate change in this region.

  • 4. Matthes, Heidrun
    et al.
    Rinke, Annette
    Miller, Paul A.
    Kuhry, Peter
    Dethloff, Klaus
    Wolf, Annett
    nstitute of Terrestrial Ecosystems, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland.
    Sensitivity of high-resolution Arctic regional climate model projections to different implementations of land surface processes2012In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 111, no 2, p. 197-214Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper discusses the effects of vegetation cover and soil parameters on the climate change projections of a regional climate model over the Arctic domain. Different setups of the land surface model of the regional climate model HIRHAM were realized to analyze differences in the atmospheric circulation caused by (1) the incorporation of freezing/thawing of soil moisture, (2) the consideration of top organic soil horizons typical for the Arctic and (3) a vegetation shift due to a changing climate. The largest direct thermal effect in 2 m air temperature was found for the vegetation shift, which ranged between -1.5 K and 3 K. The inclusion of a freeze/thaw scheme for soil moisture shows equally large sensitivities in spring over cool areas with high soil moisture content. Although the sensitivity signal in 2 m air temperature for the experiments differs in amplitude, all experiments show changes in mean sea level pressure (mslp) and geopotential height (z) throughout the troposphere of similar magnitude (mslp: -2 hPa to 1.5 hPa, z: -15 gpm to 5 gpm). This points to the importance of dynamical feedbacks within the atmosphere-land system. Land and soil processes have a distinct remote influence on large scale atmospheric circulation patterns in addition to their direct, regional effects. The assessment of induced uncertainties due to the changed implementations of land surface processes discussed in this study demonstrates the need to take all those processes for future Arctic climate projections into account, and demonstrates a clear need to include similar implementations in regional and global climate models.

  • 5. Reckien, D
    et al.
    Flacke, J
    Dawson, RJ
    Heidrich, O
    Olazabal, M
    Foley, A
    Hamann, J J-P
    Orru, Hans
    Umeå University, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Occupational and Environmental Medicine.
    Salvia, M
    Hurtado, S De Gregorio
    Geneletti, D
    Pietrapertosa, F
    Climate change response in Europe: what's the reality? Analysis of adaptation and mitigation plans from 200 urban areas in 11 countries2014In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 122, no 1-2, p. 331-340Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Urban areas are pivotal to global adaptation and mitigation efforts. But how do cities actually perform in terms of climate change response? This study sheds light on the state of urban climate change adaptation and mitigation planning across Europe. Europe is an excellent test case given its advanced environmental policies and high urbanization. We performed a detailed analysis of 200 large and medium-sized cities across 11 European countries and analysed the cities' climate change adaptation and mitigation plans. We investigate the regional distribution of plans, adaptation and mitigation foci and the extent to which planned greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions contribute to national and international climate objectives. To our knowledge, it is the first study of its kind as it does not rely on self-assessment (questionnaires or social surveys). Our results show that 35 % of European cities studied have no dedicated mitigation plan and 72 % have no adaptation plan. No city has an adaptation plan without a mitigation plan. One quarter of the cities have both an adaptation and a mitigation plan and set quantitative GHG reduction targets, but those vary extensively in scope and ambition. Furthermore, we show that if the planned actions within cities are nationally representative the 11 countries investigated would achieve a 37 % reduction in GHG emissions by 2050, translating into a 27 % reduction in GHG emissions for the EU as a whole. However, the actions would often be insufficient to reach national targets and fall short of the 80 % reduction in GHG emissions recommended to avoid global mean temperature rising by 2 A degrees C above pre-industrial levels.

  • 6. Roderfeld, Hedwig
    et al.
    Blyth, Eleanor
    Dankers, Rutger
    Huse, Geir
    Slagstad, Dag
    Ellingsen, Ingrid
    Wolf, Annett
    Umeå University. ETH Zentrum, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland.
    Lange, Manfred A.
    Potential impact of climate change on ecosystems of the Barents Sea Region2008In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 87, no 1-2, p. 283-303Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The EU project BALANCE (Global Change Vulnerabilities in the Barents region: Linking Arctic Natural Resources, Climate Change and Economies) aims to assess vulnerability to climate change in the Barents Sea Region. As a prerequisite the potential impact of climate change on selected ecosystems of the study area has to be quantified, which is the subject of the present paper. A set of ecosystem models was run to generate baseline and future scenarios for 1990, 2020, 2050 and 2080. The models are based on data from the Regional Climate Model (REMO), driven by a GCM which in turn is forced by the IPCC-B2 scenario. The climate change is documented by means of the Koppen climate classification. Since the multitude of models requires the effect of climate change on individual terrestrial and marine systems to be integrated, the paper concentrates on a standardised visualisation of potential impacts by use of a Geographical Information System for the timeslices 2050 and 2080. The resulting maps show that both terrestrial and marine ecosystems of the Barents region will undergo significant changes until both 2050 and 2080.

  • 7. Vicedo-Cabrera, A. M.
    et al.
    Guo, Y.
    Sera, F.
    Huber, V.
    Schleussner, C. -F
    Mitchell, D.
    Tong, S.
    Coelho, M. S. Z. S.
    Saldiva, P. H. N.
    Lavigne, E.
    Correa, P. M.
    Ortega, N. V.
    Kan, H.
    Osorio, S.
    KyselÜ, J.
    Urban, A.
    Jaakkola, J. J. K.
    Ryti, N. R. I.
    Pascal, M.
    Goodman, P. G.
    Zeka, A.
    Michelozzi, P.
    Scortichini, M.
    Hashizume, M.
    Honda, Y.
    Hurtado-Diaz, M.
    Cruz, J.
    Seposo, X.
    Kim, H.
    Tobias, A.
    Íñiguez, C.
    Forsberg, Bertil
    Umeå University, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Occupational and Environmental Medicine.
    Oudin Åström, Daniel
    Umeå University, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Occupational and Environmental Medicine.
    Ragettli, M. S.
    Röösli, M.
    Guo, Y. L.
    Wu, C. -F
    Zanobetti, A.
    Schwartz, J.
    Bell, M. L.
    Dang, T. N.
    Do Van, D.
    Heaviside, C.
    Vardoulakis, S.
    Hajat, S.
    Haines, A.
    Armstrong, B.
    Ebi, K. L.
    Gasparrini, A.
    Temperature-related mortality impacts under and beyond Paris Agreement climate change scenarios2018In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 150, no 3-4, p. 391-402Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The Paris Agreement binds all nations to undertake ambitious efforts to combat climate change, with the commitment to “hold warming well below 2 °C in global mean temperature (GMT), relative to pre-industrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5 °C”. The 1.5 °C limit constitutes an ambitious goal for which greater evidence on its benefits for health would help guide policy and potentially increase the motivation for action. Here we contribute to this gap with an assessment on the potential health benefits, in terms of reductions in temperature-related mortality, derived from the compliance to the agreed temperature targets, compared to more extreme warming scenarios. We performed a multi-region analysis in 451 locations in 23 countries with different climate zones, and evaluated changes in heat and cold-related mortality under scenarios consistent with the Paris Agreement targets (1.5 and 2 °C) and more extreme GMT increases (3 and 4 °C), and under the assumption of no changes in demographic distribution and vulnerability. Our results suggest that limiting warming below 2 °C could prevent large increases in temperature-related mortality in most regions worldwide. The comparison between 1.5 and 2 °C is more complex and characterized by higher uncertainty, with geographical differences that indicate potential benefits limited to areas located in warmer climates, where direct climate change impacts will be more discernible.

  • 8.
    Wolf, Annett
    et al.
    Lund Univ, Dept Phys Geog & Ecosyst Anal, Lund, Sweden; Abisko Sci Res Stn, Abisko, Sweden.
    Blyth, Eleanor
    Ctr Ecol & Hydrol, Wallingford, Oxon, England.
    Harding, Richard
    Ctr Ecol & Hydrol, Wallingford, Oxon, England.
    Jacob, Daniela
    Max Planck Inst Meteorol, Hamburg, Germany.
    Keup-Thiel, Elke
    Max Planck Inst Meteorol, Hamburg, Germany.
    Goettel, Holger
    Max Planck Inst Meteorol, Hamburg, Germany.
    Callaghan, Terry
    Abisko Sci Res Stn, Abisko, Sweden; Univ Sheffield, Dept Anim & Plant Sci, Sheffield S10 2TN, S Yorkshire, England.
    Sensitivity of an ecosystem model to hydrology and temperature2008In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 87, no 1-2, p. 75-89Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 9.
    Wolf, Annett
    et al.
    Umeå University. Lund Univ, Dept Phys Geog & Ecosyst Anal, Lund, Sweden; Abisko Sci Res Stn, Abisko, Sweden.
    Callaghan, Terry V.
    Larson, Karin
    Future changes in vegetation and ecosystem function of the Barents Region2008In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 87, no 1-2, p. 51-73Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The dynamic vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS) is used to project transient impacts of changes in climate on vegetation of the Barents Region. We incorporate additional plant functional types, i.e. shrubs and defined different types of open ground vegetation, to improve the representation of arctic vegetation in the global model. We use future climate projections as well as control climate data for 1981-2000 from a regional climate model (REMO) that assumes a development of atmospheric CO(2)-concentration according to the B2-SRES scenario [IPCC, Climate Change 2001: The scientific basis. Contribution working group I to the Third assessment report of the IPCC. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (2001)]. The model showed a generally good fit with observed data, both qualitatively when model outputs were compared to vegetation maps and quantitatively when compared with observations of biomass, NPP and LAI. The main discrepancy between the model output and observed vegetation is the overestimation of forest abundance for the northern parts of the Kola Peninsula that cannot be explained by climatic factors alone. Over the next hundred years, the model predicted an increase in boreal needle leaved evergreen forest, as extensions northwards and upwards in mountain areas, and as an increase in biomass, NPP and LAI. The model also projected that shade-intolerant broadleaved summergreen trees will be found further north and higher up in the mountain areas. Surprisingly, shrublands will decrease in extent as they are replaced by forest at their southern margins and restricted to areas high up in the mountains and to areas in northern Russia. Open ground vegetation will largely disappear in the Scandinavian mountains. Also counter-intuitively, tundra will increase in abundance due to the occupation of previously unvegetated areas in the northern part of the Barents Region. Spring greening will occur earlier and LAI will increase. Consequently, albedo will decrease both in summer and winter time, particularly in the Scandinavian mountains (by up to 18%). Although this positive feedback to climate could be offset to some extent by increased CO(2) drawdown from vegetation, increasing soil respiration results in NEE close to zero, so we cannot conclude to what extent or whether the Barents Region will become a source or a sink of CO(2).

  • 10.
    Wolf, Annett
    et al.
    Umeå University. ETH Zentrum, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland.
    Kozlov, Mikhail V.
    Callaghan, Terry V.
    Impact of non-outbreak insect damage on vegetation in northern Europe will be greater than expected during a changing climate2008In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 87, no 1-2, p. 91-106Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Background insect herbivory, in addition to insect outbreaks, can have an important long term influence on the performance of tree species. Since a projected warmer climate may favour insect herbivores, we use a dynamic ecosystem model to investigate the impacts of background herbivory on vegetation growth and productivity, as well as distribution and associated changes in terrestrial ecosystems of northern Europe. We used the GUESS ecosystem modelling framework and a simple linear model for including the leaf area loss of Betula pubescens in relation to mean July temperature. We tested the sensitivity of the responses of the simulated ecosystems to different, but realistic, degrees of insect damage. Predicted temperature increases are likely to enhance the potential insect impacts on vegetation. The impacts are strongest in the eastern areas, where potential insect damage to B. pubescens can increase by 4-5%. The increase in insect damage to B. pubescens results in a reduction of total birch leaf area (LAI), total birch biomass and birch productivity (Net Primary Production). This effect is stronger than the insect damage to leaf area alone would suggest, due to its second order effect on the competition between tree species. The model’s demonstration that background herbivory may cause changes in vegetation structure suggests that insect damage, generally neglected by vegetation models, can change predictions of future forest composition. Carbon fluxes and albedo are only slightly influenced by background insect herbivory, indicating that background insect damage is of minor importance for estimating the feedback of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change.

  • 11.
    Wolf, Annett
    et al.
    Forest Ecology, Institute of Terrestrial Ecosystems, Department of Environmental Science, ETH Zurich, Universitätsstr. 16, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland.
    Lazzarotto, Patrick
    Forschungsanstalt Agroscope Reckenholz-Tänikon ART, Reckenholzstrasse 191, CH-8046 Zürich, Switzerland.
    Bugmann, Harald
    Forest Ecology, Institute of Terrestrial Ecosystems, Department of Environmental Science, ETH Zurich, Universitätsstr. 16, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland.
    The relative importance of land use and climatic change in Alpine catchments2012In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 111, no 2, p. 279-300Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Carbon storage and catchment hydrology are influenced both by land use changes and climatic changes, but there are few studies addressing both responses under both driving forces. We investigated the relative importance of climate change vs. land use change for four Alpine catchments using the LPJ-GUESS model. Two scenarios of grassland management were calibrated based on the more detailed model PROGRASS. The simulations until 2100 show that only reforestation could lead to an increase of carbon storage under climatic change, whereby a cessation of carbon accumulation occurred in all catchments after 2050. The initial increase in carbon storage was attributable mainly to forest re-growth on abandoned land, whereas the stagnation and decline in the second half of the century was mainly driven by climate change. If land was used more intensively, i.e. as grassland, litter input to the soil decreased due to harvesting, resulting in a decline of soil carbon storage (1.2−2.9 kg C m–2) that was larger than the climate-induced change (0.8–1.4 kg C m−2). Land use change influenced transpiration both directly and in interaction with climate change. The response of forested catchments diverged with climatic change (11–40 mm increase in AET), reflecting the differences in forest age, topography and water holding capacity within and between catchments. For grass-dominated catchments, however, transpiration responded in a similar manner to climate change (light management: 23–32 mm AET decrease, heavy management: 29–44 mm AET decrease), likely because grassroots are concentrated in the uppermost soil layers. Both the water and the carbon cycle were more strongly influenced by land use compared to climatic changes, as land use had not only a direct effect on carbon storage and transpiration, but also an indirect effect by modifying the climate change response of transpiration and carbon flux in the catchments. For the carbon cycle, climate change led to a cessation of the catchment response (sink/source strength is limited), whereas for the water cycle, the effect of land use change remains evident throughout the simulation period (changes in evapotranspiration do not attenuate). Thus we conclude that management will have a large potential to influence the carbon and water cycle, which needs to be considered in management planning as well as in climate and hydrological modelling.

  • 12. Zockler, Christoph
    et al.
    Miles, Lera
    Fish, Lucy
    Wolf, Annett
    Umeå University. ETH Zentrum, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland.
    Rees, Gareth
    Danks, Fiona
    Potential impact of climate change and reindeer density on tundra indicator species in the Barents Sea region2008In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 87, no 1-2, p. 119-130Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Climate change is expected to alter the distribution of habitats and thus the distribution of species connected with these habitats in the terrestrial Barents Sea region. It was hypothesised that wild species connected with the tundra and open-land biome may be particularly at risk as forest area expands. Fourteen species of birds were identified as useful indicators for the biodiversity dependent upon this biome. By bringing together species distribution information with the LPJ-GUESS vegetation model, and with estimates of future wild and domestic reindeer density, potential impacts on these species between the present time and 2080 were assessed. Over this period there was a net loss of open land within the current breeding range of most bird species. Grazing reindeer were modelled as increasing the amount of open land retained for nine of the tundra bird species.

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