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  • 1.
    Baranowska-Rataj, Anna
    et al.
    Umeå universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Sociologiska institutionen.
    De Luna, Xavier
    Umeå universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Handelshögskolan vid Umeå universitet, Statistik.
    Ivarsson, Anneli
    Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för folkhälsa och klinisk medicin, Epidemiologi och global hälsa.
    Does the number of siblings affect health in midlife?: Evidence from the Swedish Prescribed Drug Register2016Inngår i: Demographic Research, ISSN 1435-9871, Vol. 35, s. 1259-1302, artikkel-id 43Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    Background: In many societies, growing up in a large family is associated with receiving less parental time, attention, and financial support. As a result, children with a large number of siblings may have worse physical and mental health outcomes than children with fewer siblings.

    Objective: Our objective is to examine the long-term causal effects of sibship size on physical and mental health in modern Sweden.

    Methods: We employ longitudinal data covering the entire Swedish population from the Multigenerational Register and the Medical Birth Register. This data includes information on family size and on potential confounders such as parental background. We use the Prescribed Drug Register to identify the medicines that have been prescribed and dispensed. We use instrumental variable models with multiple births as instruments to examine the causal effects of family size on the health outcomes of children, as measured by receiving medicines at age 45.

    Results: Our results indicate that in Sweden, growing up in a large family does not have a detrimental effect on physical and mental health in midlife.

    Contribution: We provide a systematic overview of the health-related implications of growing up in a large family. We adopt a research design that gives us the opportunity to make causal inferences about the long-term effects of family size. Moreover, our paper provides evidence on the links between family size and health outcomes in the context of a developed country that implements policies oriented towards reducing social inequalities in health and other living conditions.

  • 2.
    Edvinsson, Sören
    et al.
    Umeå universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Centrum för befolkningsstudier (CBS).
    Broström, Göran
    Umeå universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Statistiska institutionen.
    Old age, health and social inequality: exploring the social patterns of mortality in 19th Century Northern Sweden2012Inngår i: Demographic Research, ISSN 1435-9871, Vol. 26, s. 23-Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    BACKGROUND

    Social position is one of the major determinants of health. Less is known about its effect in historical contexts. Previous studies have shown surprisingly small effects of social class in working age populations. Not much is known about social differences in health among the elderly in history.

    OBJECTIVE

    The present paper analyses social differences in health among the elderly (60+) in the Sundsvall region in northern Sweden during the 19th century. We investigate whether social mortality differences are particularly apparent in old age when unpropertied groups lost their most important asset for survival: their capacity to work.

    METHODS

    The data, representing 9,535 fatal events, are analysed using a Cox regression model, assuming proportional hazards.

    RESULTS

    Social class had no significant effect for women during the pre-industrial period, while only those with unknown social position had higher mortality among men. During the industrial period female mortality was lowest in the skilled working class and highest in the upper class. Social position was not significant for men in the full model. Urban mortality was 30% higher for women and 59% higher for men during the pre-industrial period compared to the peripheral parishes.

    CONCLUSIONS

    The results lead us to question the accepted 'fact' of social health differences as a historical constant. Higher social position did not lead to better survival, and social differences in mortality did not increase in old age, despite the fact that the elderly were a highly vulnerable group. Instead, the spatial aspects of mortality were important, particularly during the pre-industrial period.

  • 3. Ginsburg, Carren
    et al.
    Beguy, Donatien
    Augusto, Orvalho
    Odhiambo, Frank
    Soura, Abdramane
    White, Michael J.
    Bocquier, Philippe
    Afolabi, Sulaimon
    Derra, Karim
    Otiende, Mark
    Zabre, Pascal
    Collinson, Mark A.
    Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för folkhälsa och klinisk medicin, Epidemiologi och global hälsa. Medical Research Council/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit, Johannesburg, South Africa. INDEPTH Network, Accra, Ghana..
    Human capital on the move: Education as a determinant of internal migration in selected INDEPTH surveillance populations in Africa2016Inngår i: Demographic Research, ISSN 1435-9871, Vol. 34, nr on Internal Migration and Urbanization in Developing Countries, JAN 22-24, 1996,, s. 845-884, artikkel-id 30Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    BACKGROUND Education, as a key indicator of human capital, is considered one of the major determinants of internal migration, with previous studies suggesting that human capital accumulates in urban areas at the expense of rural areas. However, there is fragmentary evidence concerning the educational correlates of internal migration in sub-Saharan Africa. OBJECTIVES The study questions whether more precise measures of migration in Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) populations support the hypothesis that migrants are self-selected on human capital and more educated people are more likely to leave rural areas or enter urban areas within a geographical region. METHODS Using unique longitudinal data representing approximately 900,000 people living in eight sub-Saharan African HDSS sites that are members of the INDEPTH Network, the paper uses Event History Analysis techniques to examine the relationship between formal educational attainment and in-and out-migration, over the period 2009 to 2011. RESULTS Between 7% and 27% of these local populations are moving in or out of the HDSS area over this period. Education is positively associated with both in-and out-migration in the Kenyan HDSS areas; however, the education effect has no clear pattern in the HDSS sites in Burkina Faso, Mozambique, and South Africa. CONCLUSIONS Empirical results presented in this paper confirm a strong age profile of migration consistent with human capital expectation, yet the results point to variability in the association of education and the propensity to migrate. In particular, the hypothesis of a shift of human capital from rural to urban areas is not universally valid.

  • 4.
    Karlsson, Lena
    Umeå universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Demografiska databasen.
    Indigenous life expectancy in Sweden 1850-1899: towards a long and healthy life?2013Inngår i: Demographic Research, ISSN 1435-9871, Vol. 28, nr 16, s. 433-456Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    Background: Previous research has shown that the health transition and demographical pattern of indigenous people has followed a different path compared to non-indigenous groups living in the same area with higher mortality rates and shortened life expectancy at birth.

    Objective: This paper draws attention to the development of life expectancy for the Sami and non-Sami during the colonization era (1850-1899). The paper will compare the development of life expectancy levels, infant mortality, and age-specific mortality between the Sami and the non-Sami population and analyze the main causes of death.

    Methods: The source material for this study is a set of data files from the Demographic Data Base (DDB) at Umeå University. Life tables and calculations of values of life expectancies are calculated using period data.

    Results: The analysis reveals that the life expectancy at birth was remarkably lower for the Sami during the entire period, corresponding to a high infant mortality. When comparing life expectancy at birth with life expectancy at age one, Sami still had a lower life expectancy during the entire period. The analysis also reveals a lower proportion of deaths due to infections among the younger Sami.

    Conclusions: The results paint a complex picture of the demographic transition in Sápmi. Neither the Sami nor the non-Sami population followed the same pattern of increased life expectancies at birth, as the Swedish population did in general. The negative consequences of colonization (high mortality, low life expectancy at birth) hit the Sami and non-Sami populations, but at different time periods.

  • 5.
    Kotowska, Irena E.
    et al.
    Warsaw School of Economics, Poland .
    Jóźwiak, Janina
    Warsaw School of Economics, Poland .
    Matysiak, Anna
    Warsaw School of Economics, Poland .
    Baranowska, Anna
    Warsaw School of Economics, Poland .
    Poland: Fertility decline as a response to profound societal and labour market changes?2008Inngår i: Demographic Research, ISSN 1435-9871, Vol. 19, s. 795-854Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    This article opens with a review of the main trends in family-related behaviour, i.e. fertility decline and changes in fertility patterns, a decreasing propensity to marry, postponement of marriage, and a slowly increasing frequency of divorces and separations. The analysis takes into account urban and rural differences. We then aim to identify the main determinants of family changes within the general conceptual framework of the Second Democratic Transition (SDT) in Poland. However, contrary to mainstream interpretations of the SDT, the main emphasis of this study is on the structural components of change, which need to be reformulated to account for processes specific to the transition to a market economy. The focus is, therefore, on labour market developments and family policy, and to a lesser extent on ideational change.

  • 6.
    Malmberg, Gunnar
    et al.
    Umeå universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Kulturgeografiska institutionen.
    Pettersson, Anna
    Umeå universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Kulturgeografiska institutionen.
    Distance to elderly parents: Analyses of Swedish register data2007Inngår i: Demographic Research, ISSN 1435-9871, Vol. 17, nr 23, s. 679-704Artikkel i tidsskrift (Annet vitenskapelig)
    Abstract [en]

    In the present study, features of and trends in child-parent proximity in Sweden are analyzed using comprehensive register data. The results show that 85% of older parents have adult children within a radius of 50 km, of which 10% live ‘just around the corner’; corresponding figures for adult children are 72% and 5%, respectively. The study gives no indication of increasing intergenerational distances. Results from logistic regressions show that adult children who are well educated, female, older, born in Sweden, who are not parents, who live in densely populated areas, and have siblings are less likely to stay in the same region as their parents.

  • 7.
    Mynarska, Monika
    et al.
    Cardinal Stefan Wyszynski University, Warsaw, Polan.
    Baranowska-Rataj, Anna
    Umeå universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Sociologiska institutionen. Institute of Statistics and Demography, Warsaw School of Economics.
    Matysiak, Anna
    Vienna Institute of Demography, Austrian Academy of Sciences, Austria .
    Free to stay, free to leave: insights from Poland into the meaning of cohabitation2014Inngår i: Demographic Research, ISSN 1435-9871, Vol. 31, nr 36, s. 1107-1136Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    Background: Previous studies have shown that in Poland cohabitation is most of all a transitory step or a testing period before marriage. Polish law does not recognize this living arrangement and it has been portrayed as uncommitted and short-lived. However, few studies have investigated what cohabitation means for relationships, especially with respect to freedom.

    Objective: We explore how young people in Poland understand and evaluate freedom in cohabitation. We investigate how they view the role freedom plays in couple dynamics and in relationship development.

    Methods: We analyze data from focus group interviews conducted in Warsaw with men and women aged 25-40. We identify passages in which opinions on cohabitation and marriage are discussed, and use bottom-up coding and the constant comparative method to reconstruct different perspectives on the issue of freedom in cohabitation.

    Results: The respondents argued that cohabitation offers the partners freedom to leave a union at any time with few repercussions. On the negative side, the freedom related to cohabitation brings insecurity, especially for young mothers. On the positive side, it offers relaxed conditions for testing a relationship, grants partners independence, and encourages cohabitors to keep their relationship interesting, precisely because it is fragile and easy to dissolve.

    Conclusions: The open nature of cohabitation offers benefits to partners, but does not provide secure conditions for childbearing. As long as the couple is not planning to have children, however, the benefits of cohabitation are likely to be seen as outweighing the disadvantages.

  • 8.
    Sandström, Glenn
    Umeå universitet, Humanistiska fakulteten, Institutionen för idé- och samhällsstudier. Umeå universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Enheten för demografi och åldrandeforskning (CEDAR).
    A reversal of the socioeconomic gradient of nuptiality during the Swedish mid-20th-century baby boom2017Inngår i: Demographic Research, ISSN 1435-9871, Vol. 37, nr 50, s. 1625-1658Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    BACKGROUND Research into the causes of the mid-twentieth-century baby boom has concluded that the main proximate cause of the fertility increase during the 1940s was earlier and more universal marriage in the cohorts born after 1910, and that this association between nuptiality trends and fertility was particularly strong in Sweden.

    OBJECTIVE However, we do not know whether this was a general trend or if certain socio-economic groups spearheaded the change towards earlier marriage.

    METHODS The present study uses event history analysis to investigate the marital histories of approximately 100,000 men and women in Sweden, born 1880-1934, to determine how socio-economic differentials in nuptiality developed during the period 1900-1960.

    CONCLUSIONS The analysis shows that the sharp increase in nuptiality was not driven uniformly across different social strata, but rather took the form of earlier and more universal marriage among men in the mid and upper social strata and among economically active women, while male unskilled workers and women outside the labor market did not participate in the nuptiality boom during the peak baby boom years and even showed some signs of decreased marriage probabilities compared to earlier cohorts.

    CONTRIBUTION The results indicate that sector-specific economic growth after the depression and the breakthrough of the Swedish welfare state benefitted couples who could aspire to a middle-class identity, and that pronatalist policies made female economic activity more compatible with marriage. The results show that the shift towards a positive female socio-economic gradient of marriage and family formation that can be observed in contemporary Sweden, had its beginnings already with the cohorts that participated in the mid-twentieth-century baby boom.

  • 9.
    Sandström, Glenn
    et al.
    Umeå universitet, Humanistiska fakulteten, Institutionen för idé- och samhällsstudier. Stockholm University Demography Unit (SUDA), Stockholm University, Sweden; Institute of Environmental Medicine (IMM), Epidemiology, Karolinska Institute, Sweden.
    Lena, Karlsson
    Umeå universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Sociologiska institutionen. Stockholm University Demography Unit (SUDA), Stockholm University, Sweden.
    The educational gradient of living alone: A comparison among the working-age population in Europe2019Inngår i: Demographic Research, ISSN 1435-9871, Vol. 40, s. 1645-1670, artikkel-id 55Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    Background: In recent decades, the proportion of individuals in Western countries living in a one-person household has increased. Previous research has mainly focused on the increase among the elderly and younger segments of the population, and there is a lack of research regarding the characteristics of individuals living alone among the working-age population.

    Objective: The aim of this study is to examine the educational gradient of living alone in the working-age population (aged 30–64 years) in a comparative perspective and to assess if the differences in the educational gradient are related to the level of gender equality in different European societies.

    Methods: Using data on 12 European countries from the Generations and Gender Surveys, the estimated probabilities of living alone for men and women with different levels of education were calculated using logistic regression models while controlling for parental status and differences in the age distribution across different populations.

    Results: In the more gender equal countries, we found a negative educational gradient of living alone, especially for men, with decreasing gender differences in the probability of living alone as education increases. In the less gender equal countries, women tend to live alone to a higher extent than men regardless of their educational level. In the least gender equal countries, we found a positive educational gradient of living alone most markedly among women. Here we found the lowest probability of living alone among those who had received only a primary education and the highest levels among men and women with university degrees. Thus, we found a shift in the educational gradient of living alone from a negative gradient in the most gender equal countries in Northern Europe to a positive gradient in the least gender equal countries in the South and in Eastern Europe.

    Contribution: This study highlights differences in living alone for men and women in the working-age population in Europe across different levels of education.

  • 10. Sharrow, David J
    et al.
    Clark, Samuel J
    Collinson, Mark A
    Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för folkhälsa och klinisk medicin, Epidemiologi och global hälsa. University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa and INDEPTH Network, Accra, Ghana.
    Kahn, Kathleen
    Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för folkhälsa och klinisk medicin, Epidemiologi och global hälsa. University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa and INDEPTH Network, Accra, Ghana.
    Tollman, Stephen M
    Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för folkhälsa och klinisk medicin, Epidemiologi och global hälsa. University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa and INDEPTH Network, Accra, Ghana.
    The Age Pattern of Increases in Mortality Affected by HIV: Bayesian Fit of the Heligman-Pollard Model to Data from the Agincourt HDSS Field Site in Rural Northeast South Africa2013Inngår i: Demographic Research, ISSN 1435-9871, Vol. 29, s. 1039-1096Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    BACKGROUND: We investigate the sex-age-specific changes in the mortality of a prospectively monitored rural population in South Africa. We quantify changes in the age pattern of mortality in a parsimonious way by estimating the eight parameters of the Heligman-Pollard (HP) model of age-specific mortality. In its traditional form this model is difficult to fit and does not account for uncertainty.

    OBJECTIVE: 1. To quantify changes in the sex-age pattern of mortality experienced by a population with endemic HIV. 2. To develop and demonstrate a robust Bayesian estimation method for the HP model that accounts for uncertainty.

    METHODS: Bayesian estimation methods are adapted to work with the HP model. Temporal changes in parameter values are related to changes in HIV prevalence.

    RESULTS: Over the period when the HIV epidemic in South Africa was growing, mortality in the population described by our data increased profoundly with losses of life expectancy of ~15 years for both males and females. The temporal changes in the HP parameters reflect in a parsimonious way the changes in the age pattern of mortality. We develop a robust Bayesian method to estimate the eight parameters of the HP model and thoroughly demonstrate it.

    CONCLUSIONS: Changes in mortality in South Africa over the past fifteen years have been profound. The HP model can be fit well using Bayesian methods, and the results can be useful in developing a parsimonious description of changes in the age pattern of mortality.

    COMMENTS: The motivating aim of this work is to develop new methods that can be useful in applying the HP eight-parameter model of age-specific mortality. We have done this and chosen an interesting application to demonstrate the new methods.

  • 11.
    van Poppel, Frans
    et al.
    Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute.
    Reher, David
    Complutense University of Madrid, Spain.
    Sanz-Gimeno, Alberto
    Complutense University of Madrid, Spain.
    Sánchez-Domínguez, María
    University Complutense of Madrid, Spain.
    Beekink, Erik
    Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute.
    Mortality decline and reproductive change during the Dutch demographic transition: revisiting a traditional debate with new data2012Inngår i: Demographic Research, ISSN 1435-9871, Vol. 27, s. 299-338Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    Background: According to classic demographic transition theory, mortality change is the key factor that triggers a decline in fertility. Research on this topic has mostly relied on aggregate or time series data. Since fertility is based on the joint decisions of couples when confronted with specific fertility-childhood mortality outcomes, a focus on the experiences of individual couples is needed. Recently, Reher and Sanz-Gimeno used this approach to analyze individual longitudinal data for the Spanish town of Aranjuez. Objective: We investigate whether, in a country and in populations characterized by varying cultural and socioeconomic circumstances, family organization, and demographic regimes, the same mechanisms influenced the process of fertility decline as in Spain. Methods: The study uses micro longitudinal data from the Historical Sample of the Netherlands for a period stretching from the last quarter of the 19th century to the middle of the 20th century, and demographic measures identical to those used in the Spanish study to test whether the decline in fertility was triggered by the decline in mortality at the level of the family. As religious groups and social classes differed in their ability to correctly assess the implications of mortality levels, and in their willingness, readiness, and ability to react to these changes by adapting their reproductive behavior, we also compared the effect of mortality decline by the religion and the social class of the couples. Results: We observed that childhood survival had clear effects on reproduction, the chances of having another child, and the length of the intervals between births, which indicates that this variable was crucial for fertility decisions. This pattern was especially strong after 1900. There were rather consistent and expected differences in the reactions to the survival of children by social class and religious group. Whereas skilled workers were rather sensitive to the number of surviving children, farm families were much less likely to allow their chance to have another child and the length of the intervals between births to be affected by the number of surviving children. Liberal Protestant couples differed sharply from Orthodox Protestant and Catholic couples in their reactions to the increase in the number of surviving children. In both the Netherlands and in Spain, the familial experience of childhood survival was central in determining reproductive strategies, although interesting differences can be seen. Conclusions: Our findings on the large differences in the fertility reactions to (changing) mortality patterns strongly support the idea that there were multiple fertility declines, or a variety of paths to lower fertility. Basically, whether couples implement fertility strategies in reaction to the number of surviving offspring is determined by how people perceive their lives. The willingness and the ability to implement such a reproductive strategy stem from the ability of couples to think about long-term goals; their ability to perceive the way the survival or the death of their offspring affects family size and family well-being over the short, medium, and long term; and the degree to which they are willing to make decisions to achieve those long-term goals.

  • 12.
    Åström, Daniel Oudin
    et al.
    Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för folkhälsa och klinisk medicin, Yrkes- och miljömedicin. Centre for Primary Health Care Research, Department of Clinical Science, Malmö, Lund University, Lund.
    Edvinsson, Sören
    Umeå universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Enheten för demografi och åldrandeforskning (CEDAR).
    Hondula, Daniel
    Rocklöv, Joacim
    Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för folkhälsa och klinisk medicin, Epidemiologi och global hälsa.
    Schumann, Barbara
    Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för folkhälsa och klinisk medicin, Epidemiologi och global hälsa. Umeå universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Enheten för demografi och åldrandeforskning (CEDAR).
    On the association between weather variability and total and cause-specific mortality before and during industrialization in Sweden2016Inngår i: Demographic Research, ISSN 1435-9871, Vol. 35, s. 991-1009Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert)
    Abstract [en]

    BACKGROUND: While there is ample evidence for health risks associated with heat and other extreme weather events today, little is known about the impact of weather patterns on population health in preindustrial societies.

    OBJECTIVE: To investigate the impact of weather patterns on population health in Sweden before and during industrialization.

    METHODS: We obtained records of monthly mortality and of monthly mean temperatures and precipitation for Skelleftea parish, northern Sweden, for the period 1800-1950. The associations between monthly total mortality, as well as monthly mortality due to infectious and cardiovascular diseases, and monthly mean temperature and cumulative precipitation were modelled using a time series approach for three separate periods, 1800-1859, 1860-1909, and 1910-1950.

    RESULTS: We found higher temperatures and higher amounts of precipitation to be associated with lower mortality both in the medium term (same month and two-months lag) and in the long run (lag of six months up to a year). Similar patterns were found for mortality due to infectious and cardiovascular diseases. Furthermore, the effect of temperature and precipitation decreased over time.

    CONCLUSIONS: Higher temperature and precipitation amounts were associated with reduced death counts with a lag of up to 12 months. The decreased effect over time may be due to improvements in nutritional status, decreased infant deaths, and other changes in society that occurred in the course of the demographic and epidemiological transition.

    CONTRIBUTION: The study contributes to a better understanding of the complex relationship between weather and mortality and, in particular, historical weather-related mortality.

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