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  • 1.
    Bergman, Torbjörn
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Political Science.
    Ersson, Svante
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Political Science.
    Hellström, Johan
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Political Science.
    Government formation and breakdown in Western and Central Eastern Europe2015In: Comparative European Politics, ISSN 1472-4790, E-ISSN 1740-388X, Vol. 13, no 3, p. 345-375Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In this article, we use a new data set describing governments, political parties and institutions to make an explicit comparison between Western Europe (WE) and Central Eastern Europe (CEE) in the investigation of three different topical issues found in the coalition literature, namely, coalition formation (that is, which factors affect who forms the winning coalitions), the number of cabinet members (that is, what affects the number of ministers in a cabinet) and cabinet duration (that is, which factors affect how long a new government lasts). Our findings indicate that, regardless of all the discussions about how CEE is different from WE because of the post-communist heritage or the volatility of voters in the CEE region, structural attributes such as the size and number of political parties are important determinants of coalition formation and cabinet duration patterns in both the West and the East. In fact, precisely because of the unsettled nature of CEE party politics, structural attributes tend to matter even more in the East.

  • 2.
    Bergman, Torbjörn
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Political Science.
    Hellström, Johan
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Political Science.
    Sandström, Camilla
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Political Science.
    Regeringsbildningen efter riksdagsvalet 20182018In: Snabbtänkt: reflektioner från valet 2018 av ledande forskare / [ed] Lars Nord, Marie Grusell, Niklas Bolin & Kajsa Falasca, Sundsvall: DEMICOM, Mittuniversitetet , 2018, p. 21-22Chapter in book (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 3. Bäck, Hanna
    et al.
    Hellström, Johan
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Political Science.
    Kris i regeringsfrågan?2018In: Demokratins framtid / [ed] Katarina Barrling och Sören Holmberg, Stockholm: Sveriges riksdag , 2018, p. 269-297Chapter in book (Refereed)
  • 4.
    Dolezal, Martin
    et al.
    Department of Government, University of Vienna.
    Hellström, Johan
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Political Science.
    The radical right as drivning force in the electoral arena?2016In: Politicising Europe: integration and mass politics / [ed] Swen Hutter, Edgar Grande, Hanspeter Kriesi, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2016, p. 156-180Chapter in book (Refereed)
  • 5.
    Döring, Holger
    et al.
    University of Bremen.
    Hellström, Johan
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Political Science.
    Who Gets into Government?: Coalition Formation in European Democracies2013In: West European Politics, ISSN 0140-2382, E-ISSN 1743-9655, Vol. 36, no 4, p. 683-703Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This article investigates different dynamics in government formation in 16 Western and 10 Central-Eastern European democracies during the post-war period. The study provides the first systematic comparison of determinants of participation in government in the East and the West. Applying mixed effects logit regression models while taking into account missing values in the dataset, the results demonstrate substantial differences between the two regions and show that most of the existing findings about participation in government are driven by Western democracies. Policy-based factors are relevant in Western countries, but no indications were found for these factors in Central-East European democracies where membership of government is mainly the result of electoral gains and losses.

  • 6.
    Hellström, Johan
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Political Science.
    Blaming Europe?: Responsibility Without Accountability in the European Union2015In: West European Politics, ISSN 0140-2382, E-ISSN 1743-9655, Vol. 38, no 3, p. 741-742Article, book review (Other academic)
  • 7.
    Hellström, Johan
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Political Science.
    Causal complexity and party-based Eurosceptisism: mixed-method approaches to middle-sized data analysisManuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
  • 8.
    Hellström, Johan
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Political Science.
    Conditional hypotheses in comparative social science: mixed-method approaches to middle-sized data analysis2011In: Methodological Innovations Online, ISSN 1748-0612, Vol. 6, no 2, p. 71-102Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper discusses under which circumstances and how configurational comparative methods (i.e. QCA) and statistical methods can be combined to provide tests for the 'quasi'-sufficiency of any given set of combination of causal conditions. When combined, QCA provides the ability to explore causal substitutability (i.e. multiple paths to a given outcome) and the ways in which many multiple causes interact with one another to produce effects, while the statistical elements can provide robust indications of the probable validity of postulated hypotheses. The potential utility of the mixed-method approach for analyzing political phenomena is demonstrated by applying it to cross-national data regarding party positions on European integration and party-based Euroscepticism in Western Europe. The findings show that oppositional stances to European integration are partly associated with non-governmental ideological fringe parties on both the left and right. The empirical example presented in this paper demonstrates that configurational methods can be successfully combined with statistical methods and supplement the QCA-framework by providing statistical tests of 'almost sufficient' claims. However, combining QCA with statistical methods can sometimes be problematic in middle-sized data analysis, especially as the latter usually cannot handle limited diversity (i.e. insufficient information) in the data and/or overtly complex relationships (i.e. having a large number of conjunctional conditions or interacting variables).

  • 9.
    Hellström, Johan
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Political Science.
    Dynamic Interactions: National Political Parties, Voters and European Integration2009Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This thesis consists of an introduction and four self-contained papers, designated I-IV, which extend previous research on national political parties and voters in Western Europe. More specifically, the issues addressed are parties’ positions and voters’ opinions on European integration and their dynamic interactions, i.e. the extent to which parties’ influence voters’ opinions, voters influence parties, and the conditions under which they influence each other. All four papers make contributions to both the content of the research field and methodology (statistical techniques) applied.

    Paper I re-examines and evaluates several hypotheses regarding the way national political parties position themselves with respect to European integration. Based on analysis of panel data on references to Europe in the election manifestos of political parties in 16 West European countries between 1970 and 2003, I present evidence that their stances on European integration have been largely determined by their ideology, here measured by the locations of the parties within party families and their general orientation along the left/right ideological continuum. The results indicate that the influence of ideology has diminished over time and parties have adopted more favourable positions towards the European project, but it is too early to ignore the connection between left/right and pro/anti integration, since many marginal parties are still taking oppositional stances that are strongly related to their ideological commitments.

    In Paper II, I discuss how configurational comparative methods (i.e. Qualitative Comparative Analysis, QCA) and statistical methods can be combined to provide tests for the sufficiency of any given set of combination of causal conditions. The potential utility of the mixed-method approach for analyzing political phenomena is demonstrated by applying it to cross-national data regarding party-based Euroscepti¬cism in Western Europe. The findings show that oppositional stances to European integration are mainly restricted to non-governmental ideological fringe parties on both the left and right. Further, radical left parties with Eurosceptical positions are largely restricted to countries with social democratic (i.e. Nordic) welfare state regimes. The empirical example presented in this paper demonstrates that configurational methods can be successfully combined with related statistical methods.

    Paper III examines and evaluates the link between electorates’ opinions and national political parties’ positions on European integration, i.e. the extent to which political parties lead and/or follow public opinion on this issue. Applying a method for causal modelling to panel data concerning political parties’ positions and voters’ opinions in 15 countries from 1973 to 2003, I find (contrary to previous investigations of this relationship) that there is little empirical support for an electoral connection or reciprocal causation between party positions and electorates’ opinion regarding European integration. Parties have an influence on voter opinions, but they are largely unresponsive to changes in voter opinion.

    In Paper IV, I examine when parties do (and do not) influence voters’ opinions about EU policy issues. According to previous research, whether parties are able to persuade their constituents to adopt their standpoints depends on several conditions: characteristics and preferences of individual voters, intra-party factors, inter-party factors and several factors that affect the salience of EU issues at the domestic level. Applying hierarchical linear models to data concerning voters’ opinions and political parties’ positions in 14 West European countries, I present findings regarding the conditions under which parties are actually able to influence voters’ opinions concerning European integration.

  • 10.
    Hellström, Johan
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Political Science.
    Förslag för att minimera taktikröstning2006Other (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 11.
    Hellström, Johan
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Political Science.
    Mass support and opposition to European integration: Reconsidering the conditional influence of party positions on voter opinionsManuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Citizens and political parties evaluate European integration differently, but not independently.  Support for, or opposition to, European integration is understood to be partly mediated by political parties, as supporters assimilate their opinions with those of the party. The purpose of this paper is to propose and test a model of the effectiveness of party cues, i.e. the degree to which parties influence voters’ opinions about EU policy issues. Whether parties are able to persuade their constituents to adopt their standpoints is assumed to depend on several conditions: the individual characteristics and preferences of voters, intra-party factors, inter-party factors and several factors that determine the salience of EU issues at the domestic level. Appling hierarchical linear models to data concerning voters’ opinions and political parties’ positions in 14 Western European countries, I present findings regarding some conditions under which parties are able to influence voters’ opinions concerning European integration

  • 12.
    Hellström, Johan
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Political Science.
    Partisan responses to Europe: explaining national political parties’ positions on European integration, 1951-19982004In: Statsvetenskapliga förbundets årsmöte i Stockholm, 7-9 oktober, 2004Conference paper (Refereed)
  • 13.
    Hellström, Johan
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Political Science.
    Partisan Responses to Europe: The role of ideology for national political parties' positions on European integration2008In: Journal of European Public Policy, Vol. 15, no 2, p. 189-207Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 14.
    Hellström, Johan
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Political Science.
    Regional Voting Patterns of the Swedish Referendum on Adopting the Euro in 20032006In: 20th IPSA World Congress, Panel RC03.179 ‘The new EU Constitution and Referenda’, Fukuoka, Japan, 9-13 Juli, 2006Conference paper (Refereed)
  • 15.
    Hellström, Johan
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Political Science.
    Who leads, who follows?: Re-examining the party-electorate link on European integration2005Report (Other academic)
  • 16.
    Hellström, Johan
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Political Science.
    Who leads, who follows?: Re-examining the party-electorate linkages on European integration2009In: The Role of Political Parties in the European Union / [ed] Lindberg, B., Ramussen, A., Warntjen, A., London: Routledje , 2009Chapter in book (Other academic)
  • 17.
    Hellström, Johan
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Political Science.
    Who leads, who follows?: Re-examining the party-electorate linkages on European Integration2008In: Journal of European Public Policy, ISSN 1350-1763, E-ISSN 1466-4429, Vol. 15, no 8, p. 1127-1144Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This article re-examines and evaluates the link between electorates' opinions and national political parties' positions on European integration, i.e. the extent to which political parties lead and/or follow public opinion on this issue. Applying a method for causal modelling (Granger causality tests) to panel data concerning political parties' positions and voters' opinions in 15 countries from 1973 to 2003, I find (contrary to previous investigations of this relationship) that there is little empirical support for an electoral connection or reciprocal causation between party positions and electorates' opinion regarding European integration. Parties have an influence on voter opinions, but are at the same time unresponsive to changes in voter opinion.

  • 18.
    Hellström, Johan
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Political Science.
    Bergman, Torbjörn
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Political Science.
    Birds of a feather flock together? Government duration and cabinet ideological diversity in Western Europe2011Conference paper (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    As shown by previous studies on government survival, ideological diversity within cabinets matters. More precisely, it has been suggested that ideological diversity is inversely related to cabinet duration; when the cabinet preference range increases the more likely that a cabinet collapses ahead of the electoral calendar. This paper further disentangle this relationship by examine cabinet duration in 17 Western democracies under varying institutional contexts. We found indications, in line with previous investigations of this relationship, that more ideological similar parties do have a longer average cabinet duration, but we also found that if coalition partners are too similar this could conversely increase the risk of cabinet termination. A plausible explanation for this finding is that when parties are too similar they are basically competing for the same stratum of the electorate, thus tries to win the hearts of the same voters, which could give rise to conflicts within the government coalition.

  • 19.
    Hellström, Johan
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Political Science.
    Blomgren, Magnus
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Political Science.
    Party debate over Europe in national election campaigns: electoral disunityand party cohesion2016In: European Journal of Political Research, ISSN 0304-4130, E-ISSN 1475-6765, Vol. 55, no 2, p. 265-282Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Few political parties are willing to lead the public debate on how the European Union should develop and parties rarely publicly discuss issues on the EU agenda. This is probably one of the most important democratic problems in the contemporary EU. When and why parties are willing (or not willing) to discuss European cooperation is therefore an essential issue in which political science should engage. Previous research has shown that parties that are internally divided on EU issues downplay these issues in order to avoid internal disputes. At the same time, parties that have severe intraparty conflicts over the issue are unable to contain the debate. Thus, parties that are unified in their position on EU issues and parties that are heavily split speak about the EU, but others do not. Also, earlier research has shown that political parties downplay issues in response to internal divisions among their supporters. It is argued in this article that the focus should not be solely on intraparty conflict or whether or not a party's voters are hesitant or disunited, but rather on how these factors interact in order to better understand how parties act strategically regarding EU issues. Using a new dataset that relies on quantitative content analysis of quality newspapers during the national election campaigns in the period 1983–2010 in France, Germany, the United Kingdom and Sweden, it is found that parties that have a high degree of internal dissent on European issues, while at the same time having an equally divided electorate, are the parties that are most present in the public debate. Hence, it is the interaction between these two important factors that explains much of the variation in the amount of attention paid to European issues in national election campaigns.

  • 20.
    Hellström, Johan
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Political Science.
    Bäck, Hanna
    Statsvetenskapliga institutionen, Lunds universitet.
    Efter valet 2014: Regeringsbildningen och det inställda extra valet2015In: Statsvetenskaplig Tidskrift, ISSN 0039-0747, Vol. 117, no 2, p. 261-278Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In this article we discuss government formation after the parliamentary elections in 2014 in a historical and comparative European context, while at the same time connecting our discussion to the research on government formation and duration in parliamentary democracies. The paper raises and tries to answer the following questions: Why did the Social Democrats form a minority government with the Green Party after the parliamentary elections in 2014, excluding the Left party? What can we say about the allocation of ministerial portfolios between the Social Democrats and the Green Party in the new government? And what are the consequences of the so called December agreement between the new government on its ability to govern and survive until the next regular election in 2018?

  • 21.
    Hellström, Johan
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Political Science.
    Walther, Daniel
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Political Science.
    Governmental participation and alliances of liberal parties in Europe2019In: Liberal parties in Europe / [ed] Caroline Close, Emilie van Haute, Abingdon, Oxon: Routledge, 2019, p. 310-325Chapter in book (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    When do Liberal parties get into government, and under which circumstances? With which partners do they generally form government? When getting into office, which ministerial portfolios do they usually obtain? In most European democracies, Liberal parties are represented in parliament and have been in office at some point in time. They also seem to have an above-average ability to secure a place in government and to obtain ministerial portfolios. This chapter takes a comparative approach and examines the patterns of government participation among Liberal parties, and their success in getting both the Prime Ministership and other important ministerial portfolios.

  • 22.
    Hellström, Johan
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Political Science.
    Walther, Daniel
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Political Science.
    How is Government Stability Affected by the State of the Economy?: Payoff Structures, Government Type and Economic State2019In: Government and Opposition, ISSN 0017-257X, E-ISSN 1477-7053, Vol. 54, no 2, p. 280-308Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    To what extent are incumbent governments affected by the state of the economy when it comes to premature dissolution? This article investigates this research question using a data set on parties and governments for 18 West European countries for the period 1945–2013. In addition to investigating the general effect of the state of the economy on government termination, we hypothesize that macroeconomic conditions affect cabinet termination in different ways depending on the type of government that is in power. Using Cox proportional hazards models to estimate how different government types are impacted by the same changes in the economy, our results indicate that economic changes do matter, but that they mainly affect coalition governments. Our results also indicate that there is a difference between minority and majority governments when it comes to the type of termination. Minority coalition governments resolve to early elections, not replacements, presumably because a minority government does not survive defection. Majority coalition governments, in contrast, show sensitivity towards both types of terminations.

  • 23.
    Larue, Thomas
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Political Science.
    Hellström, Johan
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Political Science.
    Lovvärt men krångligt initiativ, Rothstein2007Other (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 24.
    Larue, Thomas
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Political Science.
    Hellström, Johan
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Political Science.
    Political parties and the council of ministers: testing the left/right cleavage hypothesis in EU legislative politics2007In: Swedish Network for European Studies in Political Science Annual meeting, 15-16 Mars, 2007Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    While the Council has for a long time been regarded as an organization where intergovernmental forces clashes, the activity of national political parties within the Council has been largely understudied. This lack of research motivates a renewed approach if we are to gain a deeper insight into European legislative politics. In this paper we present the methodology and analytical basis for a new Council database which in the long run might be used in inter-institutional analysis of European legislation. This database is unlike previous research not linked to voting behavior (e.g. Hagemann 2006, Mattila 2004) but to political left-right preferences as indicated by party manifesto data. In the paper we argue that one complementary approach to understanding European legislative politics is to engage into broader and longitudinal inter-institutional analyses which also include possibilities of factoring in intra-institutional variables and variations. In this paper we present an explorative investigation determining the influence of the left/right dimension on some institutional aspects of legislative behavior between the Council and the EP.

  • 25.
    Lindahl, Jonas
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Political Science.
    Hellström, Johan
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Political Science.
    Bäck, Hanna
    Lunds universitet, Statsvetenskapliga institutionen.
    Sweden: Minority government as the norm2019In: Coalition Government as a Reflection of a Nation’s Politics and Society: A Comparative Study of Parliamentary Parties and Cabinets in 12 Countries / [ed] Matt Evans, London & New York: Routledge, 2019, 1, p. 127-146Chapter in book (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Swedish coalition politics is markedly influenced both by a historically strong emphasis on near-unidimensional political conflict along the left-right economic dimension, the once-dominant position of the Social Democrats, and a negative parliamentarism system. These factors have contributed to most governments formed during the post-World War Two period comprising a minority of seats in parliament. Often, governments have been single-party Social Democrat cabinets, who have relied on support from one or more parties outside government. Swedish politics has long been characterized by “bloc politics”, where the socialist and the non-socialist bloc have competed for power. However, with the entry and growth of the populist radical-right party, the Sweden Democrats, the future of bloc politics has become more uncertain. Consequently, after the 2018 election, the formation of a centre-left, red-green government required drawn-out negotiations across and within the two blocs in order to obtain the necessary support of several non-socialist parties.

  • 26.
    Walther, Daniel
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Political Science.
    Hellström, Johan
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Political Science.
    The verdict in the polls: how government stability is affected by popular support2019In: West European Politics, ISSN 0140-2382, E-ISSN 1743-9655, Vol. 42, no 3, p. 593-617Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The idea that the stability of governments is affected by how they are performing in the polls is both intuitive and popular in the literature. When support is low the government might be inclined to replace parties or the prime minister in order to regain support, thus forming a replacement government. Alternatively, a government doing well in the polls might opportunistically try to schedule an early election to capitalise on its favourable prospects. But despite the popularity of the idea, it has thus far not been tested empirically whether government stability is in fact influenced by popular support. This article aims to address this lacuna. Using a relatively new dataset with more than 12,000 unique polls, and recently developed Bayesian models for pooling the polls, it is here shown that government stability is in fact impacted by popular support. Governments display clear signs of electoral opportunism when they are polling well and, conversely, dissolve the government, without calling an election, when polling is bad. The results are strongest when there are few parties in the government, since agreement on the timing for a discretionary termination is easier when fewer players need to agree.

    The full text will be freely available from 2020-03-25 14:22
  • 27.
    Walther, Daniel
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Political Science.
    Hellström, Johan
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Political Science.
    Bergman, Torbjörn
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Political Science.
    Government instability and the state2019In: Political Science Research and Methods, ISSN 2049-8470, E-ISSN 2049-8489, Vol. 7, no 3, p. 579-594Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Government instability (cabinet duration) is an important feature of parliamentary democracy. Over time, the research on cabinet duration has improved in technical and theoretical sophistication. However, we note that little attention has been paid to the relationship between governments and the state itself. Our main hypothesis is that state capacity, e.g., factors such as state bureaucratic effectiveness and law and order, shape how easy it is for governments to implement the new policy and thus how well they can achieve policy objectives. We also argue that when state capacity is low, the ability to adequately respond to external shocks goes down, and instability increases. When testing this empirically we find that low state capacity does indeed help us predict an increased risk for early termination—in particular, whether the government ends through a replacement (but not by an early election). Using interaction effects, we also demonstrate that the effect of external shocks, such as an increase in unemployment, is conditional on state capacity. An increase in unemployment only has a significant effect on cabinet stability when state capacity is low, suggesting that the cabinet’s (in)ability to address the economic problems is an important factor for understating cabinet durability.

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