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As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%-85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced.

Litter decomposition and nutrient mineralization in high-latitude peatlands are constrained by low temperatures. So far, little is known about the effects of seasonal components of climate change (higher spring and summer temperatures, more snow which leads to higher winter soil temperatures) on these processes. In a 4-year field experiment, we manipulated these seasonal components in a sub-arctic bog and studied the effects on the decomposition and N and P dynamics of leaf litter of Calamagrostis lapponica, Betula nana, and Rubus chamaemorus, incubated both in a common ambient environment and in the treatment plots. Mass loss in the controls increased in the order Calamagrostis < Betula < Rubus. After 4 years, overall mass loss in the climate-treatment plots was 10 % higher compared to the ambient incubation environment. Litter chemistry showed within each incubation environment only a few and species-specific responses. Compared to the interspecific differences, they resulted in only moderate climate treatment effects on mass loss and these differed among seasons and species. Neither N nor P mineralization in the litter were affected by the incubation environment. Remarkably, for all species, no net N mineralization had occurred in any of the treatments during 4 years. Species differed in P-release patterns, and summer warming strongly stimulated P release for all species. Thus, moderate changes in summer temperatures and/or winter snow addition have limited effects on litter decomposition rates and N dynamics, but summer warming does stimulate litter P release. As a result, N-limitation of plant growth in this sub-arctic bog may be sustained or even further promoted.

Herbivory is one of the key drivers shaping plant community dynamics. Herbivores can strongly influence plant productivity directly through defoliation and the return of nutrients in the form of dung and urine, but also indirectly by reducing the abundance of neighbouring plants and inducing changes in soil processes. However, the relative importance of these processes is poorly understood. We, therefore, established a common garden experiment to study plant responses to defoliation, dung addition, moss cover, and the soil legacy of reindeer grazing. We used an arctic tundra grazed by reindeer as our study system, and Festuca ovina, a common grazing-tolerant grass species as the model species. The soil legacy of reindeer grazing had the strongest effect on plants, and resulted in higher growth in soils originating from previously heavily-grazed sites. Defoliation also had a strong effect and reduced shoot and root growth and nutrient uptake. Plants did not fully compensate for the tissue lost due to defoliation, even when nutrient availability was high. In contrast, defoliation enhanced plant nitrogen concentrations. Dung addition increased plant production, nitrogen concentrations and nutrient uptake, although the effect was fairly small. Mosses also had a positive effect on aboveground plant production as long as the plants were not defoliated. The presence of a thick moss layer reduced plant growth following defoliation. This study demonstrates that grasses, even though they suffer from defoliation, can tolerate high densities of herbivores when all aspects of herbivores on ecosystems are taken into account. Our results further show that the positive effect of herbivores on plant growth via changes in soil properties is essential for plants to cope with a high grazing pressure. The strong effect of the soil legacy of reindeer grazing reveals that herbivores can have long-lasting effects on plant productivity and ecosystem functioning after grazing has ceased.

Herbivores can strongly influence plant growth directly through defoliation and the return of nutrients in the form of dung and urine but also indirectly by reducing the abundance of neighbouring plants and inducing changes in soil processes. The relative importance of these driving mechanisms of plant response to herbivory are still poorly understood. In a common garden experiment, we studied the aboveground and belowground responses of Festuca ovina, a grazing tolerant grass common in arctic secondary grassland, to defoliation, reindeer dung addition, changes in soil microclimate induced by the presence or the absence of a moss cover, and soil grazing legacy. Defoliation strongly reduced shoot and root growth and plant nutrient uptake. Plants did thus not compensate for the tissue lost due to defoliation, even at a higher nutrient availability. By contrast, defoliation enhanced plant N concentration and decreased plant C to N ratio. Soil from heavily grazed sites and dung addition increased plant production, plant N concentrations and nutrient uptake, although the effects of dung addition were only small. Mosses had a strong negative effect of root biomass and reduced plant compensatory growth after defoliation. Interestingly mosses also had facilitative effects on aboveground plant growth in absence of defoliation and on plant nutrient uptake and N concentrations. Although plants suffered severely from defoliation, they were also strongly favoured by the increased nutrient availability associated with herbivory. After two years, plants produced as much biomass when all positive and negative effects of herbivores were considered (defoliation, soil communities and nutrient availability under heavily grazing, dung addition and no moss cover) as in the ungrazed conditions (no defoliation, soil communities and nutrient availability under lightly grazing, no dung addition, a thick moss cover). This study indicates that graminoids can tolerate high densities of herbivores, although it suffer from defoliation directly, and suggests that changes in plant quality following defoliation and grazing-induced changes in soil processes are two key mechanisms through which herbivores can control plant productivity in arctic secondary grasslands. Plant tolerance to herbivory will depends on how herbivores utilise a pasture area and on the balance between the positive and the negative effects of grazing on plant growth.

The relative importance of global versus local environmental factors for growth and thus carbon uptake of the bryophyte genusSphagnum-the main peat-former and ecosystem engineer in northern peatlands-remains unclear. We measured length growth and net primary production (NPP) of two abundantSphagnumspecies across 99 Holarctic peatlands. We tested the importance of previously proposed abiotic and biotic drivers for peatland carbon uptake (climate, N deposition, water table depth and vascular plant cover) on these two responses. Employing structural equation models (SEMs), we explored both indirect and direct effects of drivers onSphagnumgrowth. Variation in growth was large, but similar within and between peatlands. Length growth showed a stronger response to predictors than NPP. Moreover, the smaller and denserSphagnum fuscumgrowing on hummocks had weaker responses to climatic variation than the larger and looserSphagnum magellanicumgrowing in the wetter conditions. Growth decreased with increasing vascular plant cover within a site. Between sites, precipitation and temperature increased growth forS. magellanicum. The SEMs indicate that indirect effects are important. For example, vascular plant cover increased with a deeper water table, increased nitrogen deposition, precipitation and temperature. These factors also influencedSphagnumgrowth indirectly by affecting moss shoot density. Synthesis. Our results imply that in a warmer climate,S. magellanicumwill increase length growth as long as precipitation is not reduced, whileS. fuscumis more resistant to decreased precipitation, but also less able to take advantage of increased precipitation and temperature. Such species-specific sensitivity to climate may affect competitive outcomes in a changing environment, and potentially the future carbon sink function of peatlands.

The distribution of roots throughout the soil drives depth-dependent plant–soil interactions and ecosystem processes, particularly in arctic tundra where plant biomass, is predominantly belowground. Vegetation is usually classified from aboveground, but it is unclear whether such classifications are suitable to estimate belowground attributes and their consequences, such as rooting depth distribution and its influence on carbon cycling. We performed a meta-analysis of 55 published arctic rooting depth profiles, testing for differences both between distributions based on aboveground vegetation types (Graminoid, Wetland, Erect-shrub, and Prostrate-shrub tundra) and between ‘Root Profile Types’ for which we defined three representative and contrasting clusters. We further analyzed potential impacts of these different rooting depth distributions on rhizosphere priming-induced carbon losses from tundra soils. Rooting depth distribution hardly differed between aboveground vegetation types but varied between Root Profile Types. Accordingly, modelled priming-induced carbon emissions were similar between aboveground vegetation types when they were applied to the entire tundra, but ranged from 7.2 to 17.6 Pg C cumulative emissions until 2100 between individual Root Profile Types. Variations in rooting depth distribution are important for the circumpolar tundra carbon-climate feedback but can currently not be inferred adequately from aboveground vegetation type classifications.

Climate‐warming‐induced permafrost thaw exposes large amounts of carbon and nitrogen in soil at considerable depths, below the seasonally thawing active layer. The extent to which plant roots can reach and interact with these hitherto detached, deep carbon and nitrogen stores remains unknown.

We aimed to quantify how permafrost thaw affects root dynamics across soil depths and plant functional types compared with above‐ground abundance, and potential consequences for plant–soil interactions.

A decade of experimental permafrost thaw strongly increased total root length and growth in the active layer, and deep roots invaded the newly thawed permafrost underneath. Root litter input to soil across all depths was 10 times greater with permafrost thaw. Root growth timing was unaffected by experimental permafrost thaw but peaked later in deeper soil, reflecting the seasonally receding thaw front. Deep‐rooting species could sequester ¹⁵N added at the base of the ambient active layer in October, which was after root growth had ceased.

Deep soil organic matter that has long been locked up in permafrost is thus no longer detached from plant processes upon thaw. Whether via nutrient uptake, carbon storage, or rhizosphere priming, plant root interactions with thawing permafrost soils may feed back on our climate both positively and negatively.

Plant roots play a key role in ecosystem carbon and nutrient cycling. Climate warming induced thawing of permafrost exposes large amounts of carbon and nitrogen at greater soil depths that hitherto have been detached from plant influences. Whether plant roots can reach and interact with these carbon and nitrogen sources upon permafrost thaw remains unknown. Here, we use a long-term permafrost thaw experiment and a short-term deep fertilization experiment in northern Sweden to assess changes in vegetation composition and root dynamics (deep nitrogen uptake, root depth distribution, root growth and phenology, root mortality and litter input) related to permafrost thaw, both in active layer and in newly thawed permafrost. We show that Eriophorum vaginatum and Rubus chamaemorus, both relatively deep-rooting species, can take up nitrogen released at depth of permafrost thaw, despite the late release time in autumn when plant activity is expected to have ceased. Also, root dynamics changed drastically after a decade of experimental permafrost thaw. Total root length, root growth and root litter input all strongly increased, not only in the active layer but also in the newly thawed permafrost, and the timing of root growth was related to the seasonality of soil thaw. These responses were driven by Eriophorum vaginatum, which differed greatly in root dynamics compared to the other species and thus worked as an ecosystem engineer. This study demonstrates that soil organic matter currently locked-up at depth in permafrost is no longer detached from plant processes upon thaw. Given the pivotal role that roots have in the carbon cycle and the importance of the large carbon stocks in arctic soils, the changes observed here have the potential to feedback onto the global climate system.

Environmental manipulation studies are integral to determining biological consequences of climate warming. Open Top Chambers (OTCs) have been widely used to assess summer warming effects on terrestrial biota, with their effects during other seasons normally being given less attention even though chambers are often deployed year-round. In addition, their effects on temperature extremes and freeze-thaw events are poorly documented. To provide robust documentation of the microclimatic influences of OTCs throughout the year, we analysed temperature data from 20 studies distributed across polar and alpine regions. The effects of OTCs on mean temperature showed a large range (-0.9 to 2.1 degrees C) throughout the year, but did not differ significantly between studies. Increases in mean monthly and diurnal temperature were strongly related (R-2 = 0.70) with irradiance, indicating that PAR can be used to predict the mean warming effect of OTCs. Deeper snow trapped in OTCs also induced higher temperatures at soil/vegetation level. OTC-induced changes in the frequency of freeze-thaw events included an increase in autumn and decreases in spring and summer. Frequency of high-temperature events in OTCs increased in spring, summer and autumn compared with non-manipulated control plots. Frequency of low-temperature events was reduced by deeper snow accumulation and higher mean temperatures. The strong interactions identified between aspects of ambient environmental conditions and effects of OTCs suggest that a detailed knowledge of snow depth, temperature and irradiance levels enables us to predict how OTCs will modify the microclimate at a particular site and season. Such predictive power allows a better mechanistic understanding of observed biotic response to experimental warming studies and for more informed design of future experiments. However, a need remains to quantify OTC effects on water availability and wind speed (affecting, for example, drying rates and water stress) in combination with microclimate measurements at organism level.

Global warming is causing increases in surface temperatures and has the potential to influence the structure of soil microbial and faunal communities. However, little is known about how warming interacts with other ecosystem drivers, such as plant functional groups or changes associated with succession, to affect the soil community and thereby alter ecosystem functioning. We investigated how experimental warming and the removal of plant functional groups along a post-fire boreal forest successional gradient impacted soil microbial and nematode communities. Our results showed that warming altered soil microbial communities and favored bacterial-based microbial communities, but these effects were mediated by mosses and shrubs, and often varied with successional stage. Meanwhile, the nematode community was generally unaffected by warming and was positively affected by the presence of mosses and shrubs, with these effects mostly independent of successional stage. These results highlight that different groups of soil organisms may respond dissimilarly to interactions between warming and changes to plant functional groups, with likely consequences for ecosystem functioning that may vary with successional stage. Due to the ubiquitous presence of shrubs and mosses in boreal forests, the effects observed in this study are likely to be significant over a large proportion of the terrestrial land surface. Our results demonstrate that it is crucial to consider interactive effects between warming, plant functional groups, and successional stage when predicting soil community responses to global climate change in forested ecosystems.

Increasing surface temperatures due to climate change have the potential to alter plant litter mass loss and nutrient release during decomposition. However, a great deal of uncertainty remains concerning how ecosystem functioning may be affected by interactions between warming and other drivers, such as plant functional group composition and environmental context. In this study, we investigated how vascular plant litter decomposition and nutrient release were affected by experimental warming, moss removal and shrub removal along a post-fire boreal forest successional gradient. Our results show that litter decomposition and nutrient loss were primarily driven by understory plant functional group removal. The removal of mosses generally reduced litter mass loss and increased litter phosphorus (P) loss, while shrub removal typically increased litter mass loss and in one litter species reduced immobilization of P. Litter nitrogen (N) loss was unaffected by plant functional group removal. Warming interacted with successional stage and species identity of the litter decomposed, but these effects were uncommon and generally weak. As climate change advances, moss cover is expected to decrease, while shrub cover is expected to increase. Taken together with our results, this suggests that lower moss cover will decrease leaf litter decomposition rates and increase P release from litter, while increasing shrub cover will decrease decomposition rates and may reduce P release from litter. Our results demonstrate that in the short term, the direct effects of warming and successional stage will play a relatively minor role in driving litter decomposition processes in the boreal forest. In the long term, as the climate warms, temperature and its indirect effects via changes in the understory vegetation will play an important role in driving litter decomposition, thereby potentially altering C storage and nutrient cycling. 

The Northern high latitudes are warming twice as fast as the global average, and permafrost has become vulnerable to thaw. Changes to the environment during thaw leads to shifts in microbial communities and their associated functions, such as greenhouse gas emissions. Understanding the ecological processes that structure the identity and abundance (i.e., assembly) of pre- and post-thaw communities may improve predictions of the functional outcomes of permafrost thaw. We characterized microbial community assembly during permafrost thaw using in situ observations and a laboratory incubation of soils from the Storflaket Mire in Abisko, Sweden, where permafrost thaw has occurred over the past decade. In situ observations indicated that bacterial community assembly was driven by randomness (i.e., stochastic processes) immediately after thaw with drift and dispersal limitation being the dominant processes. As post-thaw succession progressed, environmentally driven (i.e., deterministic) processes became increasingly important in structuring microbial communities where homogenizing selection was the only process structuring upper active layer soils. Furthermore, laboratory-induced thaw reflected assembly dynamics immediately after thaw indicated by an increase in drift, but did not capture the long-term effects of permafrost thaw on microbial community dynamics. Our results did not reflect a link between assembly dynamics and carbon emissions, likely because respiration is the product of many processes in microbial communities. Identification of dominant microbial community assembly processes has the potential to improve our understanding of the ecological impact of permafrost thaw and the permafrost-climate feedback.

Temperature is increasing at unprecedented rates across most of the tundra biome(1). Remote-sensing data indicate that contemporary climate warming has already resulted in increased productivity over much of the Arctic(2,3), but plot-based evidence for vegetation transformation is not widespread. We analysed change in tundra vegetation surveyed between 1980 and 2010 in 158 plant communities spread across 46 locations. We found biome-wide trends of increased height of the plant canopy and maximum observed plant height for most vascular growth forms; increased abundance of litter; increased abundance of evergreen, low-growing and tall shrubs; and decreased abundance of bare ground. Intersite comparisons indicated an association between the degree of summer warming and change in vascular plant abundance, with shrubs, forbs and rushes increasing with warming. However, the association was dependent on the climate zone, the moisture regime and the presence of permafrost. Our data provide plot-scale evidence linking changes in vascular plant abundance to local summer warming in widely dispersed tundra locations across the globe.

Climate change can alter peatland plant community composition by promoting the growth of vascular plants. How such vegetation change affects peatland carbon dynamics remains, however, unclear. In order to assess the effect of vegetation change on carbon uptake and release, we performed a vascular plant-removal experiment in two Sphagnum-dominated peatlands that represent contrasting stages of natural vegetation succession along a climatic gradient. Periodic measurements of net ecosystem CO2 exchange revealed that vascular plants play a crucial role in assuring the potential for net carbon uptake, particularly with a warmer climate. The presence of vascular plants, however, also increased ecosystem respiration, and by using the seasonal variation of respired CO2 radiocarbon (bomb-C-14) signature we demonstrate an enhanced heterotrophic decomposition of peat carbon due to rhizosphere priming. The observed rhizosphere priming of peat carbon decomposition was matched by more advanced humification of dissolved organic matter, which remained apparent beyond the plant growing season. Our results underline the relevance of rhizosphere priming in peatlands, especially when assessing the future carbon sink function of peatlands undergoing a shift in vegetation community composition in association with climate change.

Tundra ecosystems hold large stocks of soil organic matter (SOM), likely due to low temperatures limiting rates of microbial SOM decomposition more than those of SOM accumulation from plant primary productivity and microbial necromass inputs. Here we test the hypotheses that distinct tundra vegetation types and their carbon supply to characteristic rhizosphere microbes determine SOM cycling independent of temperature. In the subarctic Scandes, we used a three-way factorial design with paired heath and meadow vegetation at each of two elevations, and with each combination of vegetation type and elevation subjected during one growing season to either ambient light (i.e., ambient plant productivity), or 95% shading (i.e., reduced plant productivity). We assessed potential above- and belowground ecosystem linkages by uni- and multivariate analyses of variance, and structural equation modelling. We observed direct coupling between tundra vegetation type and microbial community composition and function, which underpinned the ecosystem's potential for SOM storage. Greater primary productivity at low elevation and ambient light supported higher microbial biomass and nitrogen immobilisation, with lower microbial mass-specific enzymatic activity and SOM humification. Congruently, larger SOM at lower elevation and in heath sustained fungal-dominated microbial communities, which were less substrate-limited, and invested less into enzymatic SOM mineralisation, owing to a greater carbon-use efficiency (CUE). Our results highlight the importance of tundra plant community characteristics (i.e., productivity and vegetation type), via their effects on soil microbial community size, structure and physiology, as essential drivers of SOM turnover. The here documented concerted patterns in above- and belowground ecosystem functioning is strongly supportive of using plant community characteristics as surrogates for assessing tundra carbon storage potential and its evolution under climate and vegetation changes.

Rain-fed peatlands are dominated by peat mosses (Sphagnum sp.), which for their growth depend on nutrients, water and CO2 uptake from the atmosphere. As the isotopic composition of carbon (C-12(,)13) and oxygen (O-16(,)18) of these Sphagnum mosses are affected by environmental conditions, Sphagnum tissue accumulated in peat constitutes a potential long-term archive that can be used for climate reconstruction. However, there is inadequate understanding of how isotope values are influenced by environmental conditions, which restricts their current use as environmental and palaeoenvironmental indicators. Here we tested (i) to what extent C and O isotopic variation in living tissue of Sphagnum is speciesspecific and associated with local hydrological gradients, climatic gradients (evapotranspiration, temperature, precipitation) and elevation; (ii) whether the C isotopic signature can be a proxy for net primary productivity (NPP) of Sphagnum; and (iii) to what extent Sphagnum tissue delta O-18 tracks the delta O-18 isotope signature of precipitation. In total, we analysed 337 samples from 93 sites across North America and Eurasia us ing two important peat-forming Sphagnum species (S. magellanicum, S. fuscum) common to the Holarctic realm. There were differences in delta C-13 values between species. For S. magellanicum delta C-13 decreased with increasing height above the water table (HWT, R-2 = 17 %) and was positively correlated to productivity (R-2 = 7 %). Together these two variables explained 46 % of the between-site variation in delta C-13 values. For S. fuscum, productivity was the only significant predictor of delta C-13 but had low explanatory power (total R-2 = 6 %). For delta O-18 values, approximately 90 % of the variation was found between sites. Globally modelled annual delta O-18 values in precipitation explained 69 % of the between-site variation in tissue delta O-18. S. magellanicum showed lower delta O-18 enrichment than S. fuscum (-0.83 %0 lower). Elevation and climatic variables were weak predictors of tissue delta O-18 values after controlling for delta O-18 values of the precipitation. To summarize, our study provides evidence for (a) good predictability of tissue delta O-18 values from modelled annual delta O-18 values in precipitation, and (b) the possibility of relating tissue delta C-13 values to HWT and NPP, but this appears to be species-dependent. These results suggest that isotope composition can be used on a large scale for climatic reconstructions but that such models should be species-specific.

Phototrophic microbes, also known as micro-algae, display a high abundance in many terrestrial surface soils. They contribute to atmospheric carbon dioxide fluxes through their photosynthesis, and thus regulate climate similar to plants. However, microbial photosynthesis remains overlooked in most terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we hypothesise that phototrophic microbes significantly contribute to peatland C uptake, unless environmental conditions limit their development and their photosynthetic activity. To test our hypothesis, we studied phototrophic microbial communities in five peatlands distributed along a latitudinal gradient in Europe. By means of metabarcoding, microscopy and cytometry analyses, as well as measures of photosynthesis, we investigated the diversity, absolute abundance and photosynthetic rates of the phototrophic microbial communities. We identified 351 photosynthetic prokaryotic and eukaryotic operational taxonomic units (OTUs) across the five peatlands. We found that water availability and plant composition were important determinants of the composition and the structure of phototrophic microbial communities. Despite environmental shifts in community structure and composition, we showed that microbial C fixation rates remained similar along the latitudinal gradient. Our results further revealed that phototrophic microbes accounted for approximately 10% of peatland C uptake. Synthesis. Our findings show that phototrophic microbes are extremely diverse and abundant in peatlands. While species turnover with environmental conditions, microbial photosynthesis similarly contributed to peatland C uptake at all latitudes. We estimate that phototrophic microbes take up around 75 MT CO₂ per year in northern peatlands. This amount roughly equals the magnitude of projected peatland C loss due to climate warming and highlights the importance of phototrophic microbes for the peatland C cycle.

Soil carbon in permafrost ecosystems has the potential to become a major positive feedback to climate change if permafrost thaw increases heterotrophic decomposition. However, warming can also stimulate autotrophic production leading to increased ecosystem carbon storage-a negative climate change feedback. Few studies partitioning ecosystem respiration examine decadal warming effects or compare responses among ecosystems. Here, we first examined how 11 years of warming during different seasons affected autotrophic and heterotrophic respiration in a bryophyte-dominated peatland in Abisko, Sweden. We used natural abundance radiocarbon to partition ecosystem respiration into autotrophic respiration, associated with production, and heterotrophic decomposition. Summertime warming decreased the age of carbon respired by the ecosystem due to increased proportional contributions from autotrophic and young soil respiration and decreased proportional contributions from old soil. Summertime warming's large effect was due to not only warmer air temperatures during the growing season, but also to warmer deep soils year-round. Second, we compared ecosystem respiration responses between two contrasting ecosystems, the Abisko peatland and a tussock-dominated tundra in Healy, Alaska. Each ecosystem had two different timescales of warming (<5years and over a decade). Despite the Abisko peatland having greater ecosystem respiration and larger contributions from heterotrophic respiration than the Healy tundra, both systems responded consistently to short- and long-term warming with increased respiration, increased autotrophic contributions to ecosystem respiration, and increased ratios of autotrophic to heterotrophic respiration. We did not detect an increase in old soil carbon losses with warming at either site. If increased autotrophic respiration is balanced by increased primary production, as is the case in the Healy tundra, warming will not cause these ecosystems to become growing season carbon sources. Warming instead causes a persistent shift from heterotrophic to more autotrophic control of the growing season carbon cycle in these carbon-rich permafrost ecosystems.

Open top chambers (OTCs) were adopted as the recommended warmingmechanism by the International Tundra Experiment network in the early 1990s. Since then, OTCs have been deployed across the globe. Hundreds of papers have reported the impacts of OTCs on the abiotic environment and the biota. Here, we review the impacts of the OTC on the physical environment, with comments on the appropriateness of using OTCs to characterize the response of biota to warming. The purpose of this review is to guide readers to previously published work and to provide recommendations for continued use of OTCs to understand the implications of warming on low stature ecosystems. In short, the OTC is a useful tool to experimentally manipulate temperature; however, the characteristics and magnitude of warming varies greatly in different environments; therefore, it is important to document chamber performance to maximize the interpretation of biotic response.When coupled with long-term monitoring, warming experiments are a valuable means to understand the impacts of climate change on natural ecosystems.

Permafrost thaw is a major potential feedback source to climate change as it can drive the increased release of greenhouse gases carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4). This carbon release from the decomposition of thawing soil organic material can be mitigated by increased net primary productivity (NPP) caused by warming, increasing atmospheric CO2, and plant community transition. However, the net effect on C storage also depends on how these plant community changes alter plant litter quantity, quality, and decomposition rates. Predicting decomposition rates based on litter quality remains challenging, but a promising new way forward is to incorporate measures of the energetic favorability to soil microbes of plant biomass decomposition. We asked how the variation in one such measure, the nominal oxidation state of carbon (NOSC), interacts with changing quantities of plant material inputs to influence the net C balance of a thawing permafrost peatland. We found: (1) Plant productivity (NPP) increased post-thaw, but instead of contributing to increased standing biomass, it increased plant biomass turnover via increased litter inputs to soil; (2) Plant litter thermodynamic favorability (NOSC) and decomposition rate both increased post-thaw, despite limited changes in bulk C:N ratios; (3) these increases caused the higher NPP to cycle more rapidly through both plants and soil, contributing to higher CO2 and CH4 fluxes from decomposition. Thus, the increased C-storage expected from higher productivity was limited and the high global warming potential of CH4 contributed a net positive warming effect. Although post-thaw peatlands are currently C sinks due to high NPP offsetting high CO2 release, this status is very sensitive to the plant community's litter input rate and quality. Integration of novel bioavailability metrics based on litter chemistry, including NOSC, into studies of ecosystem dynamics, is needed to improve the understanding of controls on arctic C stocks under continued ecosystem transition.

Plant-associated microbiomes are structured by environmental conditions and plant associates, both of which are being altered by climate change. The future structure of plant microbiomes will depend on the, largely unknown, relative importance of each. This uncertainty is particularly relevant for arctic peatlands, which are undergoing large shifts in plant communities and soil microbiomes as permafrost thaws, and are potentially appreciable sources of climate change feedbacks due to their soil carbon (C) storage. We characterized phyllosphere and rhizosphere microbiomes of six plant species, and bulk peat, across a permafrost thaw progression (from intact permafrost, to partially- and fully-thawed stages) via 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing. We tested the hypothesis that the relative influence of biotic versus environmental filtering (the role of plant species versus thaw-defined habitat) in structuring microbial communities would differ among phyllosphere, rhizosphere, and bulk peat. Using both abundance- and phylogenetic-based approaches, we found that phyllosphere microbial composition was more strongly explained by plant associate, with little influence of habitat, whereas in the rhizosphere, plant and habitat had similar influence. Network-based community analyses showed that keystone taxa exhibited similar patterns with stronger responses to drivers. However, plant associates appeared to have a larger influence on organisms belonging to families associated with methane-cycling than the bulk community. Putative methanogens were more strongly influenced by plant than habitat in the rhizosphere, and in the phyllosphere putative methanotrophs were more strongly influenced by plant than was the community at large. We conclude that biotic effects can be stronger than environmental filtering, but their relative importance varies among microbial groups. For most microbes in this system, biotic filtering was stronger aboveground than belowground. However, for putative methane-cyclers, plant associations have a stronger influence on community composition than environment despite major hydrological changes with thaw. This suggests that plant successional dynamics may be as important as hydrological changes in determining microbial relevance to C-cycling climate feedbacks. By partitioning the degree that plant versus environmental filtering drives microbiome composition and function we can improve our ability to predict the consequences of warming for C-cycling in other arctic areas undergoing similar permafrost thaw transitions.

Climate change has become one of the main issues in environmental and sustainability discussions during the last decade. Acting to reduce climate change can be viewed as a prosocial behavior, and previous research has found that personal norms are important in explaining these types of behavior, together with other attitudinal factors. In this study we use Moral Foundations Theory (MFT) to explore the antecedents of personal climate change norms together with three attitudinal factors: problem awareness, social norms and adherence to the New Ecological Paradigm. Analyzing data from a nationwide survey (N = 1086) conducted in Sweden, we find that the moral foundations concerning harm and fairness are positively associated with personal climate change norms, whereas authority has a negative relation. However, the moral foundations from MFT contribute less in explaining personal climate change norms compared with the attitudinal factors included in the study. Theoretical and empirical implications are discussed.

Introduction: Survival and growth of tree seedlings are key processes of regeneration in forest ecosystems. However, little is known about how climate warming modulates seedling performance either directly or in interaction with understory vegetation and post-fire successional stages.

Methods: We measured survival (over 3 years) and growth of seedlings of three tree species (Betula pubescens, Pinus sylvestris, and Picea abies) in a full-factorial field experiment with passive warming and removal of two plant functional groups (feather moss and/or ericaceous shrubs) along a post-fire chronosequence in an unmanaged boreal forest.

Results: Warming had no effect on seedling survival over time or on relative biomass growth. Meanwhile, moss removal greatly increased seedling survival overall, while shrub removal canceled this effect for B. pubescens seedlings. In addition, B. pubescens and P. sylvestris survival benefitted most from moss removal in old forests (>260 years since last fire disturbance). In contrast to survival, seedling growth was promoted by shrub removal for two out of three species, i.e., P. sylvestris and P. abies, meaning that seedling survival and growth are governed by different understory functional groups affecting seedling performance through different mechanism and modes of action.

Discussion: Our findings highlight that understory vegetation and to a lesser extent post-fire successional stage are important drivers of seedling performance while the direct effect of climate warming is not. This suggests that tree regeneration in future forests may be more responsive to changes in understory vegetation or fire regime, e.g., indirectly caused by warming, than to direct or interactive effects of rising temperatures.

Strong climate warming is predicted at higher latitudes this century, with potentially major consequences forproductivity and carbon sequestration. Although northern peatlands contain one-third of the world’s soil organiccarbon, little is known about the long-term responses to experimental climate change of vascular plant communities inthese Sphagnum-dominated ecosystems.We aimed to see how long-term experimental climate manipulations, relevantto different predicted future climate scenarios, affect total vascular plant abundance and species composition whenthe community is dominated by mosses. During 8 years, we investigated how the vascular plant community of aSphagnum fuscum-dominated subarctic peat bog responded to six experimental climate regimes, including factorialcombinations of summer as well as spring warming and a thicker snow cover. Vascular plant species composition inour peat bog was more stable than is typically observed in (sub)arctic experiments: neither changes in total vascularplant abundance, nor in individual species abundances, Shannon’s diversity or evenness were found in response tothe climate manipulations. For three key species (Empetrum hermaphroditum, Betula nana and S. fuscum) we alsomeasured whether the treatments had a sustained effect on plant length growth responses and how these responsesinteracted. Contrasting with the stability at the community level, both key shrubs and the peatmoss showed sustainedpositive growth responses at the plant level to the climate treatments. However, a higher percentage of mossencroachedE. hermaphroditum shoots and a lack of change in B. nana net shrub height indicated encroachment byS. fuscum, resulting in long-term stability of the vascular community composition: in a warmer world, vascular speciesof subarctic peat bogs appear to just keep pace with growing Sphagnum in their race for space. Our findings contributeto general ecological theory by demonstrating that community resistance to environmental changes does notnecessarily mean inertia in vegetation response.

Climate warming increases nitrogen (N) mineralization in superficial soil layers (the dominant rooting zone) of subarctic peatlands. Thawing and subsequent mineralization of permafrost increases plant-available N around the thaw-front. Because plant production in these peatlands is N-limited, such changes may substantially affect net primary production and species composition. We aimed to identify the potential impact of increased N-availability due to permafrost thawing on subarctic peatland plant production and species performance, relative to the impact of increased N-availability in superficial organic layers. Therefore, we investigated whether plant roots are present at the thaw-front (45 cm depth) and whether N-uptake (N-15-tracer) at the thaw-front occurs during maximum thaw-depth, coinciding with the end of the growing season. Moreover, we performed a unique 3-year belowground fertilization experiment with fully factorial combinations of deep-(thaw-front) and shallow-fertilization (10 cm depth) and controls. We found that certain species are present with roots at the thaw-front (Rubus chamaemorus) and have the capacity (R. chamaemorus, Eriophorum vaginatum) for N-uptake from the thaw-front between autumn and spring when aboveground tissue is largely senescent. In response to 3-year shallow-belowground fertilization (S) both shallow-(Empetrum hermaphroditum) and deep-rooting species increased aboveground biomass and N-content, but only deep-rooting species responded positively to enhanced nutrient supply at the thaw-front (D). Moreover, the effects of shallow-fertilization and thaw-front fertilization on aboveground biomass production of the deep-rooting species were similar in magnitude (S: 71%; D: 111% increase compared to control) and additive (S + D: 181% increase). Our results show that plant-available N released from thawing permafrost can form a thus far overlooked additional N-source for deep-rooting subarctic plant species and increase their biomass production beyond the already established impact of warming-driven enhanced shallow N-mineralization. This may result in shifts in plant community composition and may partially counteract the increased carbon losses from thawing permafrost.

Precipitation amounts and patterns at high latitude sites have been predicted to change as a result of global climatic changes. We addressed vegetation responses to three years of experimentally increased summer precipitation in two previously unaddressed tundra types: Betula nana-dominated shrub tundra (northeast Siberia) and a dry Sphagnum fuscum-dominated bog (northern Sweden). Positive responses to approximately doubled ambient precipitation (an increase of 200 mm year(-1)) were observed at the Siberian site, for B. nana (30 % larger length increments), Salix pulchra (leaf size and length increments) and Arctagrostis latifolia (leaf size and specific leaf area), but none were observed at the Swedish site. Total biomass production did not increase at either of the study sites. This study corroborates studies in other tundra vegetation types and shows that despite regional differences at the plant level, total tundra plant productivity is, at least at the short or medium term, largely irresponsive to experimentally increased summer precipitation.

Many of the world's northern peatlands are underlain by rapidly thawing permafrost. Because plant production in these peatlands is often nitrogen (N)-limited, a release of N stored in permafrost may stimulate net primary production or change species composition if it is plant-available. In this study, we aimed to quantify plant-available N in thawing permafrost soils of subarctic peatlands. We compared plant-available N-pools and -fluxes in near-surface permafrost (010cm below the thawfront) to those taken from a current rooting zone layer (515cm depth) across five representative peatlands in subarctic Sweden. A range of complementary methods was used: extractions of inorganic and organic N, inorganic and organic N-release measurements at 0.5 and 11 degrees C (over 120days, relevant to different thaw-development scenarios) and a bioassay with Poa alpina test plants. All extraction methods, across all peatlands, consistently showed up to seven times more plant-available N in near-surface permafrost soil compared to the current rooting zone layer. These results were supported by the bioassay experiment, with an eightfold larger plant N-uptake from permafrost soil than from other N-sources such as current rooting zone soil or fresh litter substrates. Moreover, net mineralization rates were much higher in permafrost soils compared to soils from the current rooting zone layer (273mgNm-2 and 1348mgNm-2 per growing season for near-surface permafrost at 0.5 degrees C and 11 degrees C respectively, compared to -30mgNm-2 for current rooting zone soil at 11 degrees C). Hence, our results demonstrate that near-surface permafrost soil of subarctic peatlands can release a biologically relevant amount of plant available nitrogen, both directly upon thawing as well as over the course of a growing season through continued microbial mineralization of organically bound N. Given the nitrogen-limited nature of northern peatlands, this release may have impacts on both plant productivity and species composition.

As global temperatures continue to rise, a key uncertainty of climate projections is the microbial decomposition of vast organic carbon stocks in thawing permafrost soils. Decomposition rates can accelerate up to fourfold in the presence of plant roots, and this mechanism—termed the rhizosphere priming effect—may be especially relevant to thawing permafrost soils as rising temperatures also stimulate plant productivity in the Arctic. However, priming is currently not explicitly included in any model projections of future carbon losses from the permafrost area. Here, we combine high-resolution spatial and depth-resolved datasets of key plant and permafrost properties with empirical relationships of priming effects from living plants on microbial respiration. We show that rhizosphere priming amplifies overall soil respiration in permafrost-affected ecosystems by ~12%, which translates to a priming-induced absolute loss of ~40 Pg soil carbon from the northern permafrost area by 2100. Our findings highlight the need to include fine-scale ecological interactions in order to accurately predict large-scale greenhouse gas emissions, and suggest even tighter restrictions on the estimated 200 Pg anthropogenic carbon emission budget to keep global warming below 1.5 °C.

Climate change induced alterations to winter conditions may affect decomposer organisms controlling the vast carbon stores in northern soils. Soil microarthropods are particularly abundant decomposers in Arctic ecosystems. We studied whether increased snow depth affected microarthropods, and if effects were consistent over two consecutive winters. We sampled Collembola and soil mites from a snow accumulation experiment at Svalbard in early summer and used soil microclimatic data to explore to which aspects of winter climate microarthropods are most sensitive. Community densities differed substantially between years and increased snow depth had inconsistent effects. Deeper snow hardly affected microarthropods in 2015, but decreased densities and altered relative abundances of microarthropods and Collembola species after a milder winter in 2016. Although increased snow depth increased soil temperatures by 3.2 °C throughout the snow cover periods, the best microclimatic predictors of microarthropod density changes were spring soil temperature and snowmelt day. Our study shows that extrapolation of observations of decomposer responses to altered winter climate conditions to future scenarios should be avoided when communities are only sampled on a single occasion, since effects of longer-term gradual changes in winter climate may be obscured by inter-annual weather variability and natural variability in population sizes.

At high latitudes, winter warming facilitates vegetation expansion into barren frost-affected soils. The interplay of changes in winter climate and plant presence may alter soil functioning via effects on decomposers. Responses of decomposer soil fauna and microorganisms to such changes likely differ from each other, since their life histories, dispersal mechanisms and microhabitats vary greatly.

We investigated the relative impacts of short-term winter warming and increases in plant cover on bacteria and collembola community composition in cryoturbated, non-sorted circle tundra. By covering non-sorted circles with insulating gardening fibre cloth (fleeces) or using stone walls accumulating snow, we imposed two climate-change scenarios: snow accumulation increased autumn-to-late winter soil temperatures (−1 cm) by 1.4 °C, while fleeces warmed soils during that period by 1 °C and increased spring temperatures by 1.1 °C. Summer bacteria and collembola communities were sampled from within-circle locations differing in vegetation abundance and soil properties.

Two years of winter warming had no effects on either decomposer community. Instead, their community compositions were strongly determined by sampling location: communities in barren circle centres were distinct from those in vegetated outer rims, while communities in sparsely vegetated patches of circle centres were intermediate. Diversity patterns indicate that collembola communities are tightly linked to plant presence while bacteria communities correlated with soil properties.

Our results thus suggest that direct effects of short-term winter warming are likely to be minimal, but that vegetation encroachment on barren cryoturbated ground will affect decomposer community composition substantially. At decadal timescales, collembola community changes may follow relatively fast after warming-driven plant establishment into barren areas, whereas bacteria communities may take longer to respond. If shifts in decomposer community composition are indicative for changes in their activity, vegetation overgrowth will likely have much stronger effects on soil functioning in frost-affected tundra than short-term winter warming.

Climate change-driven increases in winter temperatures positively affect conditions for shrub growth in arctic tundra by decreasing plant frost damage and stimulation of nutrient availability. However, the extent to which shrubs may benefit from these conditions may be strongly dependent on the following spring climate. Species-specific differences in phenology and spring frost sensitivity likely affect shrub growth responses to warming. Additionally, effects of changes in winter and spring climate may differ over small spatial scales, as shrub growth may be dependent on natural variation in snow cover, shrub density and cryoturbation. We investigated the effects of winter warming and altered spring climate on growing-season performance of three common and widespread shrub species in cryoturbated non-sorted circle arctic tundra. By insulating sparsely vegetated non-sorted circles and parts of the surrounding heath with additional snow or gardening fleeces, we created two climate change scenarios: snow addition increased soil temperatures in autumn and winter and delayed snowmelt timing without increasing spring temperatures, whereas fleeces increased soil temperature similarly in autumn and winter, but created warmer spring conditions without altering snowmelt timing. Winter warming affected shrub performance, but the direction and magnitude were species-specific and dependent on spring conditions. Spring warming advanced, and later snowmelt delayed canopy green-up. The fleece treatment did not affect shoot growth and biomass in any shrub species despite decreasing leaf frost damage in Empetrum nigrum. Snow addition decreased frost damage and stimulated growth of Vaccinium vitis-idaea by c. 50%, while decreasing Betula nana growth (p < .1). All of these effects were consistent the mostly barren circles and surrounding heath. Synthesis. In cryoturbated arctic tundra, growth of Vaccinium vitis-idaea may substantially increase when a thicker snow cover delays snowmelt, whereas in longer term, warmer winters and springs may favour E. nigrum instead. This may affect shrub community composition and cover, with potentially far-reaching effects on arctic ecosystem functioning via its effects on cryoturbation, carbon cycling and trophic cascading. Our results highlight the importance of disentangling effects of winter and spring climate change timing and nature, as spring conditions are a crucial factor in determining the impact of winter warming on plant performance.

Research on permafrost carbon has dramatically increased in the past few years. A new estimate of 1672 Pg C of belowground organic carbon in the northern circumpolar permafrost region more than doubles the previous value and highlights the potential role of permafrost carbon in the Earth System. Uncertainties in this new estimate remain due to relatively few available pedon data for certain geographic sectors and the deeper cryoturbated soil horizons, and the large polygon size in the soil maps used for upscaling. The large permafrost carbon pool is not equally distributed across the landscape: peat deposits, cryoturbated soils and the loess-like deposits of the yedoma complex contain disproportionately large amounts of soil organic matter, often exhibiting a low degree of decomposition. Recent findings in Alaska and northern Sweden provide strong evidence that the deeper soil carbon in permafrost terrain is starting to be released, supporting previous reports from Siberia. The permafrost carbon pool is not yet fully integrated in climate and ecosystem models and an important objective should be to define typical pedons appropriate for model setups. The thawing permafrost carbon feedback needs to be included in model projections of future climate change. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Current analyses and predictions of spatially explicit patterns and processes in ecology most often rely on climate data interpolated from standardized weather stations. This interpolated climate data represents long‐term average thermal conditions at coarse spatial resolutions only. Hence, many climate‐forcing factors that operate at fine spatiotemporal resolutions are overlooked. This is particularly important in relation to effects of observation height (e.g. vegetation, snow and soil characteristics) and in habitats varying in their exposure to radiation, moisture and wind (e.g. topography, radiative forcing or cold‐air pooling). Since organisms living close to the ground relate more strongly to these microclimatic conditions than to free‐air temperatures, microclimatic ground and near‐surface data are needed to provide realistic forecasts of the fate of such organisms under anthropogenic climate change, as well as of the functioning of the ecosystems they live in. To fill this critical gap, we highlight a call for temperature time series submissions to SoilTemp, a geospatial database initiative compiling soil and near‐surface temperature data from all over the world. Currently, this database contains time series from 7,538 temperature sensors from 51 countries across all key biomes. The database will pave the way toward an improved global understanding of microclimate and bridge the gap between the available climate data and the climate at fine spatiotemporal resolutions relevant to most organisms and ecosystem processes.

Research in global change ecology relies heavily on global climatic grids derived from estimates of air temperature in open areas at around 2 m above the ground. These climatic grids do not reflect conditions below vegetation canopies and near the ground surface, where critical ecosystem functions occur and most terrestrial species reside. Here, we provide global maps of soil temperature and bioclimatic variables at a 1-km2 resolution for 0–5 and 5–15 cm soil depth. These maps were created by calculating the difference (i.e. offset) between in situ soil temperature measurements, based on time series from over 1200 1-km2 pixels (summarized from 8519 unique temperature sensors) across all the world's major terrestrial biomes, and coarse-grained air temperature estimates from ERA5-Land (an atmospheric reanalysis by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). We show that mean annual soil temperature differs markedly from the corresponding gridded air temperature, by up to 10°C (mean = 3.0 ± 2.1°C), with substantial variation across biomes and seasons. Over the year, soils in cold and/or dry biomes are substantially warmer (+3.6 ± 2.3°C) than gridded air temperature, whereas soils in warm and humid environments are on average slightly cooler (−0.7 ± 2.3°C). The observed substantial and biome-specific offsets emphasize that the projected impacts of climate and climate change on near-surface biodiversity and ecosystem functioning are inaccurately assessed when air rather than soil temperature is used, especially in cold environments. The global soil-related bioclimatic variables provided here are an important step forward for any application in ecology and related disciplines. Nevertheless, we highlight the need to fill remaining geographic gaps by collecting more in situ measurements of microclimate conditions to further enhance the spatiotemporal resolution of global soil temperature products for ecological applications.

Climate change in high latitude regions leads to both higher temperatures and more precipitation but their combined effects on terrestrial ecosystem processes are poorly understood. In nitrogen (N) limited and often moss-dominated tundra and boreal ecosystems, moss-associated N₂ fixation is an important process that provides new N. We tested whether high mean annual precipitation enhanced experimental warming effects on growing season N₂ fixation in three common arctic-boreal moss species adapted to different moisture conditions and evaluated their N contribution to the landscape level. We measured in situ N₂ fixation rates in Hylocomium splendens, Pleurozium schreberi and Sphagnum spp. from June to September in subarctic tundra in Sweden. We exposed mosses occurring along a natural precipitation gradient (mean annual precipitation: 571–1155 mm) to 8 years of experimental summer warming using open-top chambers before our measurements. We modelled species-specific seasonal N input to the ecosystem at the colony and landscape level. Higher mean annual precipitation clearly increased N₂ fixation, especially during peak growing season and in feather mosses. For Sphagnum-associated N₂ fixation, high mean annual precipitation reversed a small negative warming response. By contrast, in the dry-adapted feather moss species higher mean annual precipitation led to negative warming effects. Modelled total growing season N inputs for Sphagnum spp. colonies were two to three times that of feather mosses at an area basis. However, at the landscape level where feather mosses were more abundant, they contributed 50% more N than Sphagnum. The discrepancy between modelled estimates of species-specific N input via N₂ fixation at the moss core versus ecosystem scale, exemplify how moss cover is essential for evaluating impact of altered N₂ fixation. Importantly, combined effects of warming and higher mean annual precipitation may not lead to similar responses across moss species, which could affect moss fitness and their abilities to buffer environmental changes.

1. Alpine and Arctic treeline expansion depends on establishment of tree seedlings beyond the current treeline, which is expected to occur with climate warming. However, treelines often fail to respond to higher temperatures, and it is therefore likely that other environmental factors are important for seedling establishment.

2. We aimed to analyse our current understanding of how temperature and a range of other environmental drivers affect tree seedling establishment at the alpine and Arctic treelines world-wide and to assess the relative importance of temperature compared with other factors and how they interact.

3. We collected 366 observations from 76 experimental and observational papers for a qualitative analysis of the role of a wide range of environmental factors on tree seed germination, tree seedling growth, survival and natural occurrence. For a subset of these studies, where the experimental design allowed, we conducted formal meta-analyses to reveal if there were global drivers for different seedling life traits.

4. The analyses showed that a wide range of abiotic and biotic factors affected tree seedling establishment besides from temperature, including water, snow, nutrients, light and surrounding vegetation. The meta-analyses showed that different seedling life stages do not respond similarly to environmental factors. For example, temperature had positive effects on growth, while tree seedling survival and germination showed mixed responses to warming. Further, warming was as often as not the strongest factor controlling tree seedling establishment, when compared to with one of five other environmental factors. Moreover, warming effects often depended on other factors such as moisture or the presence of surrounding vegetation.

5. Our results suggest that population dynamics of trees at the alpine and Arctic treeline is responsive to environmental changes and show that there is a clear need for multifactorial studies if we want to fully understand and predict the interplay between warming and other environmental factors and their effect on tree seedling establishment across current treelines.

The relative contribution of bryophytes to plant diversity, primary productivity, and ecosystem functioning increases towards colder climates. Bryophytes respond to environmental changes at the species level, but because bryophyte species are relatively difficult to identify, they are often lumped into one functional group. Consequently, bryophyte function remains poorly resolved. Here, we explore how higher resolution of bryophyte functional diversity can be encouraged and implemented in tundra ecological studies. We briefly review previous bryophyte functional classifications and the roles of bryophytes in tundra ecosystems and their susceptibility to environmental change. Based on shoot morphology and colony organization, we then propose twelve easily distinguishable bryophyte functional groups. To illustrate how bryophyte functional groups can help elucidate variation in bryophyte effects and responses, we compiled existing data on water holding capacity, a key bryophyte trait. Although plant functional groups can mask potentially high interspecific and intraspecific variability, we found better separation of bryophyte functional group means compared with previous grouping systems regarding water holding capacity. This suggests that our bryophyte functional groups truly represent variation in the functional roles of bryophytes in tundra ecosystems. Lastly, we provide recommendations to improve the monitoring of bryophyte community changes in tundra study sites.

Above the alpine tree line, bryophytes cover much of the tundra soil surface in dense, often monospecific carpets. Therefore, when climate warming enables tree seedling establishment above the tree line, interaction with the bryophyte layer is inevitable. Bryophytes are known to modify their environment in various ways. However, little is known about to which extent and by which mechanisms bryophytes affect the response of tree seedlings to climate warming.

We aimed to assess and understand the importance of bryophyte species identity and traits for tree seedling performance at tree line temperatures and their response to warmer conditions. Seedlings of two common, tree line-forming tree species (Betula pubescens and Pinus sylvestris) were planted into intact cushions of eight common tundra bryophyte species and bryophyte-free soil and grown for 18 weeks at current (7·0 °C) and near-future (30–50 years; 9·2 °C) tree line average growing-season temperatures. Seedling performance (biomass increase and N-uptake) was measured and related to bryophyte species identity and traits indicative of their impact on the environment.

Tree seedlings performed equally well or better in the presence of bryophytes than in bryophyte-free soil, which contrasts to their usually negative effects in milder climates. In addition, seedling performance and their response to higher temperatures depended on bryophyte species and seedlings of both species grew largest in the pan-boreal and subarctic bryophyte Hylocomium splendens. However, B. pubescens seedlings showed much stronger responses to higher temperatures when grown in bryophytes than in bryophyte-free soil, while the opposite was true for P. sylvestris seedlings. For B. pubescens, but not for P. sylvestris, available organic nitrogen of the bryophyte species was the trait that best predicted seedling responses to higher temperatures, likely because these seedlings had increased N-demands.

Synthesis. Climatically driven changes in bryophyte species distribution may not only have knock-on effects on vascular plant establishment, but temperature effects on seedling performance are themselves moderated by bryophytes in a species-specific way. Bryophyte traits can serve as a useful tool for understanding and predicting these complex interactions.

Climate warming enables tree seedling establishment beyond the current alpine treeline, but to achieve this, seedlings have to establish within existing tundra vegetation. In tundra, mosses are a prominent feature, known to regulate soil temperature and moisture through their physical structure and associated water retention capacity. Moss presence and species identity might therefore modify the impact of increases in temperature and precipitation on tree seedling establishment at the arctic‐alpine treeline. We followed Betula pubescens and Pinus sylvestris seedling survival and growth during three growing seasons in the field. Tree seedlings were transplanted along a natural precipitation gradient at the subarctic‐alpine treeline in northern Sweden, into plots dominated by each of three common moss species and exposed to combinations of moss removal and experimental warming by open‐top chambers (OTCs). Independent of climate, the presence of feather moss, but not Sphagnum , strongly supressed survival of both tree species. Positive effects of warming and precipitation on survival and growth of B. pubescens seedlings occurred in the absence of mosses and as expected, this was partly dependent on moss species. P. sylvestris survival was greatest at high precipitation, and this effect was more pronounced in Sphagnum than in feather moss plots irrespective of whether the mosses had been removed or not. Moss presence did not reduce the effects of OTCs on soil temperature. Mosses therefore modified seedling response to climate through other mechanisms, such as altered competition or nutrient availability. We conclude that both moss presence and species identity pose a strong control on seedling establishment at the alpine treeline, and that in some cases mosses weaken climate‐change effects on seedling establishment. Changes in moss abundance and species composition therefore have the potential to hamper treeline expansion induced by climate warming.

When tree seedlings establish beyond the current tree line due to climate warming, they encounter existing vegetation, such as bryophytes that often dominate in arctic and alpine tundra. The stress gradient hypothesis (SGH) predicts that plant interactions in tundra become increasingly negative as climate warms and conditions become less harsh. However, for seedlings, climate warming might not result in lower winter stress, if insulating snow cover is reduced. We aimed to understand if bryophytes facilitate seedling survival in a changing winter climate and if these effects of bryophytes on tree seedlings comply with the SGH along elevational gradients under contrasting snow conditions. In the Swedish subarctic, we transplanted intact bryophyte cores covered by each of three bryophyte species and bryophyte-free control soil from above the tree line to two field common garden sites, representing current and future tree line air temperature conditions (i.e. current tree line elevation and a lower, warmer, elevation below the tree line). We planted seedlings of Betula pubescens and Pinus sylvestris into these cores and subjected them to experimental manipulation of snow cover during one winter. In agreement with the SGH, milder conditions caused by increased snow cover enhanced the generally negative or neutral effects of bryophytes on seedlings immediately after winter. Furthermore, survival of P. sylvestris seedlings after one full year was higher at lower elevation, especially when snow cover was thinner. However, in contrast with the SGH, impacts of bryophytes on over-winter survival of seedlings did not differ between elevations, and impacts on survival of B. pubescens seedlings after 1year was more negative at lower elevation. Bryophyte species differed in their effect on seedling survival after winter, but these differences were not related to their insulating capacity.Synthesis. Our study demonstrates that interactions from bryophytes can modify the impacts of winter climate change on tree seedlings, and vice versa. These responses do not always comply with SGH, but could ultimately have consequences for large-scale ecological processes such as tree line shifts. These new insights need to be taken into account in predictions of plant species responses to climate change.

Arctic and alpine tundra ecosystems are large reservoirs of organic carbon^1,2. Climate warming may stimulate ecosystem respiration and release carbon into the atmosphere^3,4. The magnitude and persistency of this stimulation and the environmental mechanisms that drive its variation remain uncertain^5–7. This hampers the accuracy of global land carbon–climate feedback projections^7,8. Here we synthesize 136 datasets from 56 open-top chamber in situ warming experiments located at 28 arctic and alpine tundra sites which have been running for less than 1 year up to 25 years. We show that a mean rise of 1.4 °C [confidence interval (CI) 0.9–2.0 °C] in air and 0.4 °C [CI 0.2–0.7 °C] in soil temperature results in an increase in growing season ecosystem respiration by 30% [CI 22–38%] (n = 136). Our findings indicate that the stimulation of ecosystem respiration was due to increases in both plant-related and microbial respiration (n = 9) and continued for at least 25 years (n = 136). The magnitude of the warming effects on respiration was driven by variation in warming-induced changes in local soil conditions, that is, changes in total nitrogen concentration and pH and by context-dependent spatial variation in these conditions, in particular total nitrogen concentration and the carbon:nitrogen ratio. Tundra sites with stronger nitrogen limitations and sites in which warming had stimulated plant and microbial nutrient turnover seemed particularly sensitive in their respiration response to warming. The results highlight the importance of local soil conditions and warming-induced changes therein for future climatic impacts on respiration.

Warming-induced microbial decomposition of organic matter in permafrost soils constitutes a climate-change feedback of uncertain magnitude. While physicochemical constraints on soil functioning are relatively well understood, the constraints attributable to microbial community composition remain unclear. Here we show that biogeochemical processes in permafrost can be impaired by missing functions in the microbial community-functional limitations-probably due to environmental filtering of the microbial community over millennia-long freezing. We inoculated Yedoma permafrost with a functionally diverse exogenous microbial community to test this mechanism by introducing potentially missing microbial functions. This initiated nitrification activity and increased CO2 production by 38% over 161 days. The changes in soil functioning were strongly associated with an altered microbial community composition, rather than with changes in soil chemistry or microbial biomass. The present permafrost microbial community composition thus constrains carbon and nitrogen biogeochemical processes, but microbial colonization, likely to occur upon permafrost thaw in situ, can alleviate such functional limitations. Accounting for functional limitations and their alleviation could strongly increase our estimate of the vulnerability of permafrost soil organic matter to decomposition and the resulting global climate feedback. Carbon dioxide emissions from permafrost thaw are substantially enhanced by relieving microbial functional limitations, according to incubation experiments on Yedoma permafrost.

The decomposition of large stocks of soil organic carbon in thawing permafrost might depend on more than climate change-induced temperature increases: indirect effects of thawing via altered bacterial community structure (BCS) or rooting patterns are largely unexplored. We used a 10-year in situ permafrost thaw experiment and aerobic incubations to investigate alterations in BCS and potential respiration at different depths, and the extent to which they are related with each other and with root density. Active layer and permafrost BCS strongly differed, and the BCS in formerly frozen soils (below the natural thawfront) converged under induced deep thaw to strongly resemble the active layer BCS, possibly as a result of colonization by overlying microorganisms. Overall, respiration rates decreased with depth and soils showed lower potential respiration when subjected to deeper thaw, which we attributed to gradual labile carbon pool depletion. Despite deeper rooting under induced deep thaw, root density measurements did not improve soil chemistry-based models of potential respiration. However, BCS explained an additional unique portion of variation in respiration, particularly when accounting for differences in organic matter content. Our results suggest that by measuring bacterial community composition, we can improve both our understanding and the modeling of the permafrost carbon feedback.

Thicker snowpacks and their insulation effects cause winter-warming and invoke thaw of permafrost ecosystems. Temperature-dependent decomposition of previously frozen carbon (C) is currently considered one of the strongest feedbacks between the Arctic and the climate system, but the direction and magnitude of the net C balance remains uncertain. This is because winter effects are rarely integrated with C fluxes during the snow-free season and because predicting the net C balance from both surface processes and thawing deep layers remains challenging. In this study, we quantified changes in the long-term net C balance (net ecosystem production) in a subarctic peat plateau subjected to 10 years of experimental winter-warming. By combining(210)Pb and(14)Cdating of peat cores with peat growth models, we investigated thawing effects on year-round primary production and C losses through respiration and leaching from both shallow and deep peat layers. Winter-warming and permafrost thaw had no effect on the net C balance, but strongly affected gross C fluxes. Carbon losses through decomposition from the upper peat were reduced as thawing of permafrost induced surface subsidence and subsequent waterlogging. However, primary production was also reduced likely due to a strong decline in bryophytes cover while losses from the old C pool almost tripled, caused by the deepened active layer. Our findings highlight the need to estimate long-term responses of whole-year production and decomposition processes to thawing, both in shallow and deep soil layers, as they may contrast and lead to unexpected net effects on permafrost C storage.

Arctic and subarctic ecosystems are experiencing substantial changes in hydrology, vegetation, permafrost conditions, and carbon cycling, in response to climatic change and other anthropogenic drivers, and these changes are likely to continue over this century. The total magnitude of these changes results from multiple interactions among these drivers. Field measurements can address the overall responses to different changing drivers, but are less capable of quantifying the interactions among them. Currently, a comprehensive assessment of the drivers of ecosystem changes, and the magnitude of their direct and indirect impacts on subarctic ecosystems, is missing. The Tornetrask area, in the Swedish subarctic, has an unrivalled history of environmental observation over 100 years, and is one of the most studied sites in the Arctic. In this study, we summarize and rank the drivers of ecosystem change in the Tornetrask area, and propose research priorities identified, by expert assessment, to improve predictions of ecosystem changes. The research priorities identified include understanding impacts on ecosystems brought on by altered frequency and intensity of winter warming events, evapotranspiration rates, rainfall, duration of snow cover and lake-ice, changed soil moisture, and droughts. This case study can help us understand the ongoing ecosystem changes occurring in the Tornetrask area, and contribute to improve predictions of future ecosystem changes at a larger scale. This understanding will provide the basis for the future mitigation and adaptation plans needed in a changing climate.

The microbial ecology of arctic and sub-arctic soils is an important aspect of the global carbon cycle, due to the sensitivity of the large soil carbon stocks to ongoing climate warming. These regions are characterized by strong climatic seasonality, but the emphasis of most studies on the short vegetation growing season could potentially limit our ability to predict year-round ecosystem functions. We compiled a database of studies from arctic, subarctic, and boreal environments that include sampling of microbial community and functions outside the growing season. We found that for studies comparing across seasons, in most environments, microbial biomass and community composition vary intra-annually, with the spring thaw period often identified by researchers as the most dynamic time of year. This seasonality of microbial communities will have consequences for predictions of ecosystem function under climate change if it results in: seasonality in process kinetics of microbe-mediated functions; intra-annual variation in the importance of different (a)biotic drivers; and/or potential temporal asynchrony between climate change-related perturbations and their corresponding effects. Future research should focus on (i) sampling throughout the entire year; (ii) linking these multi-season measures of microbial community composition with corresponding functional or physiological measurements to elucidate the temporal dynamics of the links between them; and (iii) identifying dominant biotic and abiotic drivers of intra-annual variation in different ecological contexts.

The emergence of high-throughput DNA sequencing methods provides unprecedented opportunities to further unravel bacterial biodiversity and its worldwide role from human health to ecosystem functioning. However, despite the abundance of sequencing studies, combining data from multiple individual studies to address macroecological questions of bacterial diversity remains methodically challenging and plagued with biases. Here, using a machine-learning approach that accounts for differences among studies and complex interactions among taxa, we merge 30 independent bacterial data sets comprising 1,998 soil samples from 21 countries. Whereas previous meta-analysis efforts have focused on bacterial diversity measures or abundances of major taxa, we show that disparate amplicon sequence data can be combined at the taxonomy-based level to assess bacterial community structure. We find that rarer taxa are more important for structuring soil communities than abundant taxa, and that these rarer taxa are better predictors of community structure than environmental factors, which are often confounded across studies. We conclude that combining data from independent studies can be used to explore bacterial community dynamics, identify potential 'indicator' taxa with an important role in structuring communities, and propose hypotheses on the factors that shape bacterial biogeography that have been overlooked in the past.