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  • 1.
    Fuentes-Hurtado, Marcelo
    et al.
    Departamento de Ecosistemas y Medio Ambiente, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile.
    Hof, Anouschka R.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences. Department of Wildlife, Fish and Environmental Studies, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU), Umeå, Sweden.
    Jansson, Roland
    Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences.
    Paleodistribution modeling suggests glacial refugia in Scandinavia and out-of-Tibet range expansion of the Arctic fox2016In: Ecology and Evolution, ISSN 2045-7758, E-ISSN 2045-7758, Vol. 6, no 1, p. 170-180Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Quaternary glacial cycles have shaped the geographic distributions and evolution of numerous species in the Arctic. Ancient DNA suggests that the Arctic fox went extinct in Europe at the end of the Pleistocene and that Scandinavia was subsequently recolonized from Siberia, indicating inability to track its habitat through space as climate changed. Using ecological niche modeling, we found that climatically suitable conditions for Arctic fox were found in Scandinavia both during the last glacial maximum (LGM) and the mid-Holocene. Our results are supported by fossil occurrences from the last glacial. Furthermore, the model projection for the LGM, validated with fossil records, suggested an approximate distance of 2000 km between suitable Arctic conditions and the Tibetan Plateau well within the dispersal distance of the species, supporting the recently proposed hypothesis of range expansion from an origin on the Tibetan Plateau to the rest of Eurasia. The fact that the Arctic fox disappeared from Scandinavia despite suitable conditions suggests that extant populations may be more sensitive to climate change than previously thought.

  • 2.
    Hof, Anouschka R.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences.
    Alien species in a warming climate: a case study of the nutcracker and stone pines2015In: Biological Invasions, ISSN 1387-3547, E-ISSN 1573-1464, Vol. 17, no 5, p. 1533-1543Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Species are predicted to shift their geographic range with climate change, which increases the need for good conservation planning and management practices. Not only may climate change increase the number of invasive species in parts of the world, it may also lead to some species becoming invasive under new, more preferable, climatic conditions. This study investigates whether climate change may enhance the spread of alien species by another alien species. I use the interaction between the alien slender-billed nutcracker and alien, potentially invasive, stone pines as a case-study and specifically aim to quantify to which extent the potential spread of stone pine species in Sweden in a warming climate is augmented by its dispersal agent: the slender-billed nutcracker. I found that accounting for the future climatic niche of the slender-billed nutcracker, and therefore for its potential presence, significantly augmented the increase of the predicted future range of the stone pines under climate change. This result does not only stress the importance of accounting for species interactions when assessing the impact of climate change on species' future geographic ranges, it also stresses the need for nature conservationists and managers to incorporate species interactions and climate change when designing appropriate plans with regard to invasive species. Although the implications of the predicted future spread of the slender-billed nutcracker might be limited, since the very similar thick-billed nutcracker is native to Sweden, the effects of the stone pines should not be neglected. They are currently classified as potentially invasive in parts of the Nordic region.

  • 3.
    Hof, Anouschka R
    Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences.
    European terrestrial gastropod distribution: How may climate change affect their diversity and current distribution2011In: Gastropods: Diversity, Habitat and Genetics / [ed] Andrea M. Bianchi, Jamie N. Fields, Nova Science Publishers, Inc., 2011Chapter in book (Refereed)
  • 4.
    Hof, Anouschka R
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences.
    Bright, Paul W
    Factors affecting hedgehog presence on farmland as assessed by a questionnaire survey2012In: Acta Theriologica, ISSN 0001-7051, E-ISSN 2190-3743, Vol. 57, no 1, p. 79-88Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The West European hedgehog, (Erinaceus europaeus, Linnaeus 1758) is widely distributed in Western Europe. However, there is evidence of decline in parts of its range. Changes in agricultural management have partly been the driving force behind the loss of species diversity and abundance, and it has been argued that these changes play a role in the decline of hedgehogs as well. We used a questionnaire to investigate the current distribution of hedgehogs on farmland throughout Great Britain with a focus on different environmental zones. Additionally, we identified environmental correlates that related to the distribution of hedgehogs with the aim to get a better understanding of what is needed to design appropriate strategies targeted at the conservation of hedgehogs. Our study illustrates that, although the impact of several variables was rather ambiguous, displaying positive effects in some environmental zones and negative effects in other, major roads and Eurasian badgers (Meles meles, Linnaeus 1758) can have large scale negative effects on hedgehogs. Farm management related factors did not show a consistent impact on hedgehog presence. Conservation strategies should therefore be aimed at lessening the impacts of major roads and badger presence. Wildlife passages, for instance, may provide hedgehogs safe passages across roads. Additionally, increasing the habitat complexity in order to reduce the impact of predators can be beneficial for prey species, such as hedgehogs, and should be considered as a conservation strategy for them.

  • 5.
    Hof, Anouschka R
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences.
    Bright, Paul W
    The impact of grassy field margins on macro-invertebrate abundance in adjacent arable fields2010In: Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, ISSN 0167-8809, E-ISSN 1873-2305, Vol. 139, no 1-2, p. 280-283Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Grassy field margins are thought to be an important feature for a variety of species in arable landscapes. However, not many studies address the impact of such margins in arable landscapes on the abundance of macro-invertebrates in arable fields. We estimated the abundance of earthworms, gastropods and carabids in fields with and without a grassy margin. Additionally, fields were sampled along the edge and further in the field. From our findings we can conclude that the presence of grassy field margins in arable landscapes increases the abundance of carabids and earthworms but decreases the abundance of gastropods. These effects were mainly noticeable on the edge of the field, but appear to be occurring further in the field as well. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  • 6.
    Hof, Anouschka R.
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences.
    Jansson, Roland
    Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences.
    Nilsson, Christer
    Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences.
    Future Climate Change Will Favour Non-Specialist Mammals in the (Sub)Arctics2012In: PLoS ONE, ISSN 1932-6203, E-ISSN 1932-6203, Vol. 7, no 12, p. e52574-Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Arctic and subarctic (i.e., [sub] arctic) ecosystems are predicted to be particularly susceptible to climate change. The area of tundra is expected to decrease and temperate climates will extend further north, affecting species inhabiting northern environments. Consequently, species at high latitudes should be especially susceptible to climate change, likely experiencing significant range contractions. Contrary to these expectations, our modelling of species distributions suggests that predicted climate change up to 2080 will favour most mammals presently inhabiting (sub) arctic Europe. Assuming full dispersal ability, most species will benefit from climate change, except for a few cold-climate specialists. However, most resident species will contract their ranges if they are not able to track their climatic niches, but no species is predicted to go extinct. If climate would change far beyond current predictions, however, species might disappear. The reason for the relative stability of mammalian presence might be that arctic regions have experienced large climatic shifts in the past, filtering out sensitive and range-restricted taxa. We also provide evidence that for most (sub) arctic mammals it is not climate change per se that will threaten them, but possible constraints on their dispersal ability and changes in community composition. Such impacts of future changes in species communities should receive more attention in literature.

  • 7.
    Hof, Anouschka R
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences.
    Jansson, Roland
    Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences.
    Nilsson, Christer
    Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences.
    Future of biodiversity in the Barents Region2015Book (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Climate change may affect biodiversity to a large extent. Its effects have already caused shifts in species distributions and even species extinctions. Since especially high latitude regions are expected to be affected, this publication assesses the impact of future climate change on the biodiversity in the Barents Region (northern parts of Norway, Sweden and Finland, and Northwest Russia). It reports on the impact of climate change on a large range of species, including amphibians, butterflies, birds, mammals, moths, plants, slugs, snails, and reptiles, of which a few were studied more in depth. It further identifies future hotspots of species diversity and gives recommendations on species that should be prioritized for conservation and on areas that should be included in the network of protected areas in future. Lastly, it provides guidance on which aspects require further study.

  • 8.
    Hof, Anouschka R
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences.
    Jansson, Roland
    Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences.
    Nilsson, Christer
    Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences.
    How biotic interactions may alter future predictions of species distributions: future threats to the persistence of the arctic fox in Fennoscandia2012In: Diversity & distributions: A journal of biological invasions and biodiversity, ISSN 1366-9516, E-ISSN 1472-4642, Vol. 18, no 6, p. 554-562Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Aim With climate change, reliable predictions of future species geographic distributions are becoming increasingly important for the design of appropriate conservation measures. Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to predict geographic range shifts in response to climate change. However, because species communities are likely to change with the climate, accounting for biotic interactions is imperative. A shortcoming of introducing biotic interactions in SDMs is the assumption that biotic interactions remain the same under changing climatic factors, which is disputable. We explore the performance of SDMs while including biotic interactions.

    Location Fennoscandia, Europe.

    Methods We investigate the appropriateness of the inclusion of biotic factors (predator pressure and prey availability) in assessing the future distribution of the arctic fox (Alopex lagopus) in Fennoscandia by means of SDM, using the algorithm MaxEnt.

    Results Our results show that the inclusion of biotic interactions enhanced the accuracy of SDMs to predict the current arctic fox distribution, and we argue that the accuracy of future predictions might also be enhanced. While the range of the arctic fox is predicted to have decreased by 43% in 2080 because of temperature-related variables, projected increases in predator pressure and reduced prey availability are predicted to constrain the potential future geographic range of the arctic fox in Fennoscandia 13% more.

    Main conclusions The results indicate that, provided one has a good knowledge of past changes and a clear understanding of interactions in the community involved, the inclusion of biotic interactions in modelling future geographic ranges of species increases the predictive power of such models. This likely has far-reaching impacts upon the design and implementation of possible conservation and management plans. Control of competing predators and supplementary feeding are suggested as necessary management actions to preserve the Fennoscandian arctic fox population in the face of climate change.

  • 9.
    Hof, Anouschka R
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences.
    Jansson, Roland
    Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences.
    Nilsson, Christer
    Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences.
    The usefulness of elevation as a predictor variable in species distribution modelling2012In: Ecological Modelling, ISSN 0304-3800, E-ISSN 1872-7026, Vol. 246, p. 86-90Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly used to forecast impacts of climate change on species geographic distributions, but the reliability of predictions is scrutinized. The main limitation of SDMs lies in their assumption that species' ranges are determined mostly by climate, which is arguable. For instance, biotic interactions, habitat and elevation may affect species ranges. The inclusion of habitat-related variables as predictors in SDMs is generally accepted, but there is no consensus regarding the inclusion of elevation. A review of randomly chosen literature revealed that elevation is used as a predictor variable by just over half of the papers studied with no apparent trends as to why, except that papers predicting mammal species distributions for large regions included elevation more often than not, and that papers that predicted mammal ranges for small regions tended to exclude elevation. In addition, we compared the performance of SDMs with and without elevation as a predictor variable for the distribution of north European mammals and plants and found that the difference between their performances is statistically significant for mammals, slightly favouring exclusion of elevation. No differences were found for plants.

    (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  • 10.
    Hof, Anouschka R.
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences.
    Snellenberg, Jolanda
    Resource Ecology Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen, The Netherlands.
    Bright, Paul W.
    School of Biological Sciences, Royal Holloway, University of London, Egham, U.K..
    Food or fear?: Predation risk mediates edge refuging in an insectivorous mammal2012In: Animal Behaviour, ISSN 0003-3472, E-ISSN 1095-8282, Vol. 83, no 4, p. 1099-1106Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Understanding space use by animals plays a key role in a wide array of behavioural and ecological fields of study. An insight into how and why species use the space available to them may aid their conservation. The West European hedgehog, Erinaceus europaeus, a species in decline in part of its range, is relatively mobile and adapted to a wide range of habitat types. However, it is frequently associated with edge habitats. This edge-refuging behaviour is not well understood and may be the result of fear of predators, food availability or other factors. We used radiotelemetry to investigate the movement of hedgehogs in comparable landscapes with high and low predator (badgers, Meles meles) abundance. Simultaneously, food availability was assessed in both landscapes. Our results suggest that agricultural habitats may be 'landscapes of fear' for hedgehogs in the presence of a high number of predators. On agricultural fields, hedgehogs were on average situated closer to edge cover in areas with predators present. It is thus likely to be beneficial for the conservation of hedgehogs in areas with a high number of predators to increase the complexity of the habitat structure by, among other measures, establishing more and denser hedgerows in rural areas. Our results suggest that enhancing the complexity of the habitat structure might lessen the effects of fear. Additionally, our results emphasize the importance of integrating data on predator abundance and food availability in studies that focus on habitat selection behaviour and species conservation. (C) 2012 The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  • 11.
    Jørgensen, Dolly
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences.
    Nilsson, Christer
    Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences.
    Hof, Anouschka R.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences. Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences.
    Hasselquist, Eliza Maher
    Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences.
    Baker, Susan
    Chapin, F. Stuart, III
    Eckerberg, Katarina
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Political Science.
    Hjaelten, Joakim
    Polvi, Lina
    Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences.
    Meyerson, Laura A.
    Policy Language in Restoration Ecology2014In: Restoration Ecology, ISSN 1061-2971, E-ISSN 1526-100X, Vol. 22, no 1, p. 1-4Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Relating restoration ecology to policy is one of the aims of the Society for Ecological Restoration and its journal Restoration Ecology. As an interdisciplinary team of researchers in both ecological science and political science, we have struggled with how policy-relevant language is and could be deployed in restoration ecology. Using language in scientific publications that resonates with overarching policy questions may facilitate linkages between researcher investigations and decision-makers' concerns on all levels. Climate change is the most important environmental problem of our time and to provide policymakers with new relevant knowledge on this problem is of outmost importance. To determine whether or not policy-specific language was being included in restoration ecology science, we surveyed the field of restoration ecology from 2008 to 2010, identifying 1,029 articles, which we further examined for the inclusion of climate change as a key element of the research. We found that of the 58 articles with climate change or global warming in the abstract, only 3 identified specific policies relevant to the research results. We believe that restoration ecologists are failing to include themselves in policy formation and implementation of issues such as climate change within journals focused on restoration ecology. We suggest that more explicit reference to policies and terminology recognizable to policymakers might enhance the impact of restoration ecology on decision-making processes.

  • 12. Rodriguez-Castaneda, Genoveva
    et al.
    Hof, Anouschka R.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences.
    Jansson, Roland
    Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences.
    Harding, Larisa E.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences.
    Predicting the Fate of Biodiversity Using Species' Distribution Models: Enhancing Model Comparability and Repeatability2012In: PLoS ONE, ISSN 1932-6203, E-ISSN 1932-6203, Vol. 7, no 9, p. e44402-Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Species distribution modeling (SDM) is an increasingly important tool to predict the geographic distribution of species. Even though many problems associated with this method have been highlighted and solutions have been proposed, little has been done to increase comparability among studies. We reviewed recent publications applying SDMs and found that seventy nine percent failed to report methods that ensure comparability among studies, such as disclosing the maximum probability range produced by the models and reporting on the number of species occurrences used. We modeled six species of Falco from northern Europe and demonstrate that model results are altered by (1) spatial bias in species' occurrence data, (2) differences in the geographic extent of the environmental data, and (3) the effects of transformation of model output to presence/absence data when applying thresholds. Depending on the modeling decisions, forecasts of the future geographic distribution of Falco ranged from range contraction in 80% of the species to no net loss in any species, with the best model predicting no net loss of habitat in Northern Europe. The fact that predictions of range changes in response to climate change in published studies may be influenced by decisions in the modeling process seriously hampers the possibility of making sound management recommendations. Thus, each of the decisions made in generating SDMs should be reported and evaluated to ensure conclusions and policies are based on the biology and ecology of the species being modeled.

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