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  • 151.
    Brockwell, Erik
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics.
    State and industrial actions to influence consumer behavior2014Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This thesis consists of an introductory part and three papers.

    Paper [I] examines how taxes affect consumption of commodities that are detrimental to health and the environment. Specifically, this paper examines if a tax increase leads to a significantly larger change in consumption than a producer price change, which is referred to as the signaling effect from taxation. The analysis uses aggregated cross-sectional time series data and information on major legislation introductions in Sweden, Denmark and the United Kingdom from 1970 to 2009. We find the main result to be that the signaling effect is significant for “Electricity” in Sweden and Denmark and significant for “Electricity” and “Petrol” in the United Kingdom.

    Paper [II] examines how sin taxation changes long-term consumer behavior regarding commodities which are deemed harmful for both health and the environment. These include tobacco, alcoholic beverages, sugar and confectionary, household energy, and motor fuel. Specifically, we examine the signaling effect from taxation which is seen if a tax increase leads to a significantly larger change in consumption than a producer price change. The empirical analysis is conducted by a US panel data study, during the period 1988-2012 for the four US census regions, using the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS). We find the main result to be that the signaling effect from taxation is significant for tobacco as well as for electricity and motor fuel.   

    Paper [III] examines state and industry responses on consumption of cigarettes and petroleum in the United States from 1998-2012. Upon facing consumption choices, the consumer faces two competing sets of messages, one from the government and another from the industry. The objective of the state is to steer consumption in the right direction due to the harmful effects from consumption and asymmetric information among consumers. This is done mainly via taxation and state media expenditures. The industry, on the other hand, seeks to incentivize the public to ignore or reject state research and signals as well as maximizing net economic returns. This is mainly done via industry media and lobbying expenditures. We find that the main results indicate, for cigarettes, industrial media and lobbying expenditure is statistically significant on consumption. For petroleum, we find that producer prices, state media expenditure, and industrial lobbying expenditure are statistically significant on consumption.

  • 152.
    Brockwell, Erik
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics.
    The signaling effect of environmental and health-based taxation and legislation for public policy: an empirical analysis2013Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The main objective of this article is to examine how taxes affect consumption of commodities that are detrimental to health and the environment: tobacco, alcoholic beverages, household energy and petroleum fuel (petrol) for transportation. Specifically, we examine if a tax increase leads to a significantly larger change in consumption than a producer price change, which is referred to as the signalling effect from taxation. This objective is achieved through an empirical analysis using the Linear Almost Ideal Demand System. The analysis uses aggregated cross-sectional time series data and information on major legislation introductions in Sweden, Denmark and the United Kingdom from 1970 to 2009. We find the main result to be that the signalling effect is significant for “Electricity” in Sweden and Denmark and significant for “Electricity” and “Petrol” in the United Kingdom. This implies that tax policy is more effective in tackling consumption of commodities which produce negative public effects (negative externalities affecting the social good such as pollution) than those for negative private effects (negative internalities affecting the private good such as health).

  • 153.
    Brockwell, Erik
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics.
    The war for consumers’ minds and wallets: state vs. industry responses on cigarette and petroleum consumption2014Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The main objective of this article is to examine the empirical effect of state and industry responses on consumption of cigarettes and petroleum in the United States from 1998-2012. Upon facing consumption choices, the consumer faces two competing sets of messages, one from the government and another from the industry. The objective of the state is to steer consumption in the right direction due to the harmful effects from consumption and asymmetric information among consumers. This is done mainly via taxation and state media expenditures. The industry, on the other hand, seeks to incentivize the public to ignore or reject state research and signals as well as maximizing net economic returns. This is mainly done via industry media and lobbying expenditures. We find that the main results indicate, for cigarettes, industrial media and lobbying expenditure is statistically significant on consumption. For petroleum, we find that producer prices, state media expenditure, and industrial lobbying expenditure are statistically significant on consumption. While significant results are mainly seen for media and lobbying expenditures, no significant results are seen for taxation.

  • 154.
    Bruksner, Kristin
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics.
    Är vi lyckligare om vi endast jobbar på dagarna?2018Independent thesis Basic level (degree of Bachelor), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
    Abstract [sv]

    Den här uppsatsen undersöker effekten av arbete på kvällar, nätter eller helger på individens självuppskattade lycka. Det har blivit allt vanligare på senare år att undersöka vilka faktorer det är som påverkar människors lycka, forskning har främst gjorts på vilken effekt inkomst har på lycka. För kopplingen mellan arbetstiden och lycka finns det främst analyser på vad de avvikande arbetstiderna har för effekt på individens hälsa, där det har kommits fram till att främst skiftarbete och nattarbete har stora negativa effekter på hälsa och ökar risken för olika sjukdomar. Datamaterialet som undersöks i denna studie är inhämtat från European Social Survey för år 2010 och baseras på individdata från 25 av Europas länder. Individens självuppskattade lycka undersöks genom att ställa frågan ”Allt sammantaget, hur lycklig är du just nu?” där individen får placera sig på en skala mellan 0–10 där 0 är ”Extremt olycklig” och 10 är ”Extremt lycklig”. Resultatet av studien visar att avvikande arbetstider har en viss negativ effekt på lycka. Resultatet är dock inte statistiskt signifikant för alla kategorier.

  • 155.
    Brännlund, R.
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics.
    Ghalwash, Tarek
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics.
    The income-pollution relationship and the role of income distribution: evidence from Swedish household data2006In: Umeå economic studies, no 677Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 156.
    Brännlund, Runar
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Environmental and Resource Economics (CERE). Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics.
    Karimu, Amin
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Environmental and Resource Economics (CERE). Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics. University of Ghana Business School, Legon, Ghana.
    Convergence in global environmental performance: assessing heterogeneity2018In: Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, ISSN 1432-847X, E-ISSN 1867-383X, Vol. 20, no 3, p. 503-526Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper examines convergence in environmental/carbon performance by constructing a measure based on production theory, where production processes explicitly result in the production of two outputs; a good output (GDP) and a bad output (CO2). We use the derived measure to test the beta-convergence hypothesis for a panel of 94 countries. The results reveal evidence in support of beta-convergence in environmental, or carbon performance for the entire (global) sample and each of the sub-samples. The evidence points to a slower convergence rate for the high-income countries relative to low-income countries. Moreover, the rate of convergence does not vary with capital in the global sample, but does vary in the high-income sample, possibly reflecting differences in abatement cost induced by differences in the stringency of environmental regulation and enforcement. Additionally, we find evidence of a negative relation between environmental performance and fossil fuel share, both at the global level as well as at the middle and high sub-samples, which tend to vary with capital intensity. As such, the results conform to the results from studies on the dynamics of per capita emissions.

  • 157.
    Brännlund, Runar
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Environmental and Resource Economics (CERE). Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics.
    Karimu, Amin
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Environmental and Resource Economics (CERE). Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics.
    Patrik, Söderholm
    Convergence in carbon dioxide emissions and the role of growth and institutions: a parametric and non-parametric analysis2017In: Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, ISSN 1432-847X, E-ISSN 1867-383X, Vol. 19, no 2, p. 359-390Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper examines convergence of per capita carbon dioxide (CO2) emission for a panel of 124 countries taking into account the impact of economic growth and the quality of government institutions. The analysis builds on both parametric and non-parametric panel data techniques, and we examine the β-convergence hypothesis in a neoclassical growth model setting with institutional quality as one of the independent variables influencing both emissions and output growth. The results reveal evidence in support of β-convergence of per capita CO2 emissions for the global sample, and for the sub-samples comprising OECD versus non-OECD countries and high- versus low-income countries, respectively. There is, however, heterogeneity in β-convergence and it tends to vary with the level of the initial per capita CO2 emissions. We also report evidence of a negative direct effect of institutional quality on growth in per capita CO2emissions, especially for the global and high-income samples. However, institutional quality also promotes economic growth, thus generating a positive indirect effect on emissions growth. Overall the empirical results suggest a positive net effect of institutional quality on growth in per capita CO2 emissions in the global sample. Finally, the non-parametric approach reveals some evidence of bias in the parametric approach, in particular in the case of the estimates for the convergence parameter at either end of the distribution.

  • 158.
    Brännlund, Runar
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Environmental and Resource Economics (CERE). Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics.
    Lundgren, Tommy
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Environmental and Resource Economics (CERE). Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics.
    Patrik, Söderholm
    Luleå technical university.
    Convergence of carbon dioxide performance across Swedish industrial sectors: An environmental index approach2015In: Energy Economics, ISSN 0140-9883, E-ISSN 1873-6181, Vol. 51, p. 227-235Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The overall objective of the paper is to analyze convergence of CO2 emission intensity across manufacturing sectors in Sweden. Our approach differs from previous work on carbon convergence in that it employs a theoretical framework to construct a COperformance index, which explicitly takes into account that industrial firms produce good as well as bad outputs. This index is then used as the dependent variable in a growth-type regression equation. We employ a data set covering 14 industrial sectors over the time period 1990–2008. The results suggest the presence of conditional β-convergence in CO2 performance among the industrial sectors in Sweden. Moreover, the speed of convergence varies significantly in the sense that the higher the capital intensity is, the lower is the convergence rate to the different steady states. This is likely to reflect the importance of – and in part the costs associated with – capital turnover to achieve a transition towards lower CO2 emission paths.

  • 159.
    Brännlund, Runar
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics.
    Löfgren, Karl-Gustav
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics.
    Sjöstedt, Sara
    Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Mathematics and Mathematical Statistics.
    Forecasting prices of paper products - focusing on the relation between autocorrelation structure and economic theory1999In: Journal of Forest Economics, ISSN 1104-6899, E-ISSN 1618-1530, Vol. 5, p. 23-44Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 160.
    Brännlund, Runar
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics.
    Nordström, Jonas
    University of Copenhagen.
    Stage, Jesper
    Luleå technical university.
    Svedin, Dick
    Mid SwedenUniversity.
    Foreign ownership and its effects on employment and wages: the case of Sweden2016In: IZA Journal of European Labor Studies, E-ISSN 2193-9012, Vol. 5, article id 8Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In this paper, we study how foreign ownership of Swedish companies affects employment and wages. To study these effects, we specify a model based on the assumption that the Swedish labour market can be described as one where trade unions and employers bargain over employment and wages. Our hypothesis is that bargaining power is affected by institutional settings and the ownership of the firm. To test our hypothesis, we used a panel data set of 242 large Swedish manufacturing firms over the period 1980–2005. The results indicate no significant impact of foreign ownership on employment or wages in Sweden

  • 161.
    Brännlund, Runar
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics. Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Center for Environmental and Resource Economics (CERE).
    Persson, Lars
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics. Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Center for Environmental and Resource Economics (CERE).
    To tax, or not to tax: preferences for climate policy attributes2012In: Climate Policy, ISSN 1469-3062, E-ISSN 1752-7457, Vol. 12, no 6, p. 704-721Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Many countries around the world respond to global warming and its consequences with various policy instruments. In the economic literature, policy instruments have typically been analysed with respect to efficiency, but little effort has been expended to understand public preferences for these instruments. In an internet-based choice experiment to address this shortcoming, Swedes were asked to choose between two alternative hypothetical policy instruments, each of which reduces CO2 emissions by the same amount. The hypothetical policy instruments were characterized by a number of specific attributes. By varying the levels of each of the attributes, respondents indirectly reveal their preferences for these attributes. Half of the respondents are faced with choices labelled ‘tax’ and ‘other’, and the other half are faced with unlabelled choices (hypothetical instruments). The results show that Swedes tend to dislike the term ‘tax’ and show a preference for instruments with a positive effect on environment-friendly technology and climate awareness. A progressive-like cost distribution is preferred to a regressive cost distribution, and the private cost is negatively related to the choice of policy.

  • 162. Brännäs, E.
    et al.
    Brännäs, Kurt
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics.
    A model of patch visit behaviour in fish1998In: Biometrical Journal, ISSN 0323-3847, E-ISSN 1521-4036, Vol. 40, no 6, p. 717-724Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The patch visit or sampling behaviour of fish is studied over a 15 day period. The experimental setup consists of three connected patches between which movement is automatically registered. Using an integer-valued time series model we find a diel effect on the probability to stay in one of the patches.

  • 163.
    Brännäs, Kurt
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics.
    Adaptations of Conventional Spatial Econometric Models to Count Data2014Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The paper suggests and studies count data models corresponding to previously studied spatial econometric models for continuous variables. A novel way of incorporating spatial weights is considered for both time and space dynamic models with or without simultaneity. The paper also contains a brief discussion about estimation issues

  • 164.
    Brännäs, Kurt
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics.
    Limited dependent poisson regression1992In: Statistician (London. Print), ISSN 0039-0526, E-ISSN 1467-9884, Vol. 41, no 4, p. 413-423Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The paper introduces aspects of statistical inference in Poisson regression models, with a dependent variable subject to truncation and/or censoring. Losses in efficiency, due to censoring and truncation, of the maximum likelihood estimator are illustrated. Predictors and predictor variances are given. New adaptations to tests for unobserved random heterogeneity (overdispersion) are given. Power properties are examined in a small Monte Carlo experiment. A labour market illustration is given.

  • 165.
    Brännäs, Kurt
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics.
    Modelling Non-Linear Economic Relationships by Clive W. J. Granger; Timo Teräsvirta1994In: Scandinavian Journal of Economics, ISSN 0347-0520, E-ISSN 1467-9442, Vol. 96, no 4, p. 576-577Article, book review (Other academic)
  • 166.
    Brännäs, Kurt
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics.
    Omitted variables in a weibull regression model1984In: Economics Letters, ISSN 0165-1765, E-ISSN 1873-7374, Vol. 16, no 3-4, p. 279-283Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Asymptotic biases of maximum likelihood and least squares estimators in a Weibull model, subject to omitted variables, are given. The results are contrasted to those of a small sample Monte Carlo experiment.

  • 167.
    Brännäs, Kurt
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics.
    Prediction and control for a time-series count data model1995In: International Journal of Forecasting, ISSN 0169-2070, E-ISSN 1872-8200, Vol. 11, no 2, p. 263-270Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Time series of count data are becoming more widely available. In a recently suggested class of models, the serial correlation between counts can conveniently be accounted for. In this paper, an easily calculated linear predictor is introduced. Control solutions for average count and for probabilities of specified events are given. An illustration based on a road accident frequency model for a Swedish county is included.

  • 168.
    Brännäs, Kurt
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics.
    Prediction in a duration model1986In: Journal of Forecasting, ISSN 0277-6693, E-ISSN 1099-131X, Vol. 5, no 2, p. 97-103Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 169.
    Brännäs, Kurt
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics.
    Simultaneity in the Multivariate Count Data Autoregressive Model2013Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This short paper proposes a simultaneous equations model formulation for time seriesof count data. Some of the basic moment properties of the model are obtained.The inclusion of real valued exogenous variables is suggested to be through the parametersof the model. Some remarks on the application of the model to spatial dataare made. Instrumental variable and generalized method of moments estimators ofthe structural form parameters are also discussed.

  • 170.
    Brännäs, Kurt
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics.
    Small sample properties in a heterogenous Weibull model1986In: Economics Letters, ISSN 0165-1765, E-ISSN 1873-7374, Vol. 21, no 1, p. 17-20Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Neglected heterogeneity implies bias for estimators in, e.g., the Weibull duration model. In a Monte Carlo experiment the proper maximum likelihood estimator is better than a new least squares estimator. The likelihood estimator neglecting heterogeneity is inferior. 

  • 171.
    Brännäs, Kurt
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics.
    The asymmetric count data moving average model2012Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This note defines the asymmetric count data, first order moving average model and gives some of its basic properties. A brief account of conditional least squares estimation of unknown parameters is also given.

  • 172.
    Brännäs, Kurt
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics.
    The number of shareholders: time series modelling and some empirical results2014In: Contributions to mathematics, statistics, econometrics, and finance: essays in honour of Professor Seppo Pynnönen / [ed] Johan Knif, Bernd Pape, Vasa: Vaasan Yliopisto , 2014, p. 195-205Chapter in book (Refereed)
  • 173.
    Brännäs, Kurt
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics.
    The number of Shareholders: Time series modelling and some empirical results2013Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The paper discusses some model related issues for time series of the number of shareholders in a stock. The point of departure is an integer-valued autoregressive model of order one. Empirical results are presented for some frequently traded stocks on the Finnish and Swedish stock markets. In these stock markets public records of the number of owners are reported monthly (Finland) and quarterly (Sweden, and initially at biannual) intervals. The aggregate records are useful for, e.g., indirectly estimating average holding times, which are found to vary but to mostly exceed one year.

  • 174.
    Brännäs, Kurt
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics.
    De Gooijer, J. G.
    Asymmetries in conditional mean and variance: Modelling stock returns by asMA-asQGARCH2004In: Journal of Forecasting, ISSN 0277-6693, E-ISSN 1099-131X, Vol. 23, no 3, p. 155-171Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We propose a nonlinear time series model where both the conditional mean and the conditional variance are asymmetric functions of past information. The model is particularly useful for analysing financial time series where it has been noted that there is an asymmetric impact of good news and bad news on volatility (risk) transmission. We introduce a coherent framework for testing asymmetries in the conditional mean and the conditional variance, separately or jointly. To this end we derive both a Wald and a Lagrange multiplier test. Some of the new asymmetric model's moment properties are investigated. Detailed empirical results are given for the daily returns of the composite index of the New York Stock Exchange. There is strong evidence of asymmetry in both the conditional mean and the conditional variance functions. In a genuine out-of-sample forecasting experiment the performance of the best fitted asymmetric model, having asymmetries in both conditional mean and conditional variance, is compared with an asymmetric model for the conditional mean, and with no-change forecasts. This is done both in terms of conditional mean forecasting as well as in terms of risk forecasting. Finally, the paper presents some evidence of asymmetries in the index stock returns of the Group of Seven (G7) industrialized countries.

  • 175.
    Brännäs, Kurt
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics.
    De Gooijer, J. G.
    Teräsvirta, T.
    Testing linearity against nonlinear moving average models1998In: Communications in Statistics - Theory and Methods, ISSN 0361-0926, E-ISSN 1532-415X, Vol. 27, no 8, p. 2025-2035Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Lagrange multiplier (LM) test statistics are derived for testing a linear moving average model against an asymmetric moving average model and an LM type test against an additive smooth transition moving average model. The latter model is introduced in the paper. The small sample performance of the proposed tests are evaluated in a Monte Carlo study and compared to Wald and likelihood ratio statistics. The size properties of the Lagrange multiplier test are better than those of other tests.

  • 176.
    Brännäs, Kurt
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics.
    De Gooijer, Jan
    Department of Quantitative Economics, University of Amsterdam.
    Lönnbark, Carl
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics.
    Soultanaeva, Albina
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics.
    Simultaneity and asymmetry of returns and volatilities: the emerging Baltic States' stock exchanges2012In: Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, ISSN 1081-1826, E-ISSN 1558-3708, Vol. 16, no 1, p. 22Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The paper suggests a nonlinear and multivariate time series model framework that enables the study of simultaneity in returns and in volatilities, as well as asymmetric effects arising from shocks. Using daily data 2000-2006 for the Baltic state stock exchanges and that of Moscow we find recursive structures with Riga directly depending in returns on Tallinn and Vilnius, and Tallinn on Vilnius. For volatilities both Riga and Vilnius depend on Tallinn. In addition,we find evidence of asymmetric effects of shocks arising in Moscow and in the Baltic state on both returns and volatilities.

  • 177.
    Brännäs, Kurt
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics.
    De Gooijer, JG
    Autoregressive-asymmetric moving average models for business-cycle data1994In: Journal of Forecasting, ISSN 0277-6693, E-ISSN 1099-131X, Vol. 13, no 6, p. 529-544Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Much business cycle research is based on an assumption of symmetric cycles, though it is frequently argued that the downturns are steeper and more short-lived than the upturns; implying cyclical asymmetries. A new class of nonlinear autoregressive-asymmetric moving average models is introduced. These models are able to deal with symmetric as well as asymmetric phenomena. A likelihood estimation procedure and a Wald test statistic for symmetry are presented. Evidence of asymmetry is found in US real GNP growth rates.

  • 178.
    Brännäs, Kurt
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics.
    De Luna, Xavier
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics.
    Generalized method of moment and indirect estimation of the ARasMA model1998In: Computational statistics (Zeitschrift), ISSN 0943-4062, E-ISSN 1613-9658, Vol. 13, no 4, p. 485-494Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Estimation in nonlinear time series models has mainly been performed by least squares or maximum likelihood (ML) methods. The paper suggests and studies the performance of generalized method of moments (GMM) and indirect estimators for the autoregressive asymmetric moving average model. Both approaches are easy to implement and perform well numerically. In a Monte Carlo study it is found that the MSE properties of GMM are close to those of ML. The indirect estimator performs poorly in this respect. On the other hand, the three estimation techniques lead to fairly similar power functions for a linearity test.

  • 179.
    Brännäs, Kurt
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics.
    Eriksson, Maria
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics.
    Enrolment in labour market training programmes1996In: Labour, ISSN 1121-7081, E-ISSN 1467-9914, Vol. 10, no 1, p. 193-208Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The specification of a model for selection to labour market training is studied. Based on present value maximization, it is demonstrated that frequently adopted specifications of wage equations yield selection models containing a difference between alternative wage rates paid in the training period. In addition, the training effect on future wage rates can be sign determined. Using this, we test the hypothesis of present value maximization. A test that is robust against omitted variables and heteroskedasticity is used. Based on a sample of unemployed Swedish workers, we find positive training effects for most sub-groups.

  • 180.
    Brännäs, Kurt
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics.
    Hall, Andreia
    Estimation in integer-valued moving average models2001In: Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, ISSN 1524-1904, E-ISSN 1526-4025, Vol. 17, no 3, p. 277-291Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The paper presents new characterizations of the integer-valued moving average model. For four model variants, we give moments and probability generating functions. Yule-Walker and conditional least-squares estimators are obtained and studied by Monte Carlo simulation. A new generalized method of moment estimator based on probability generating functions is presented and shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal. The small sample performance is in some instances better than those of alternative estimators.

  • 181.
    Brännäs, Kurt
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics.
    Hellström, Jörgen
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics.
    Nordström, Jonas
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics.
    A new approach to modelling and forecasting monthly guest nights in hotels2002In: International Journal of Forecasting, ISSN 0169-2070, E-ISSN 1872-8200, Vol. 18, no 1, p. 19-30Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Starting from a day-to-day model on hotel specific guest nights we obtain an integer-valued moving average model by cross-sectional and temporal aggregation. The two parameters of the aggregate model reflect mean check-in and the check-out probability. Letting the parameters be functions of dummy and economic variables we demonstrate the potential of the approach in terms of interesting interpretations. Empirical results are presented for a series of Norwegian guests in Swedish hotels. The results indicate strong seasonal patterns in both mean check-in and in the check-out probability. Models based on differenced series are preferred in terms of goodness-of-fit. In a forecast comparison the improvements due to economic variables are small. © 2002 International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

  • 182.
    Brännäs, Kurt
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics.
    Johansson, P.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics.
    Panel data regression for counts1996In: Statistical papers, ISSN 0932-5026, E-ISSN 1613-9798, Vol. 37, no 3, p. 191-213Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    A new panel data model for count data is introduced. We suggest alternative estimators, such as pseudo maximum likelihood and generalized method of moments, of structural and nuisance parameters. In addition, different test statistics of independence and overdispersion are obtained. The small sample performance of the estimators and tests are evaluated in Monte Carlo experiments. The model is applied to the number of days absent in Sweden 1981-1991 for a panel of Swedish male workers.

  • 183.
    Brännäs, Kurt
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics.
    Johansson, Per
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics.
    Time-series count data regression1994In: Communications in Statistics - Theory and Methods, ISSN 0361-0926, E-ISSN 1532-415X, Vol. 23, no 10, p. 2907-2925Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The count data model studied in the paper extends the Poisson model by allowing for overdispersion and serial correlation. Alternative approaches to estimate nuisance parameters, required for the correction of the Poisson maximum likelihood covariance matrix estimator and for a quasi-likelihood estimator, are studied. The estimators are evaluated by finite sample Monte Carlo experimentation. It is found that the Poisson maximum likelihood estimator with corrected covariance matrix estimators provide reliable inferences for longer time series. Overdispersion test statistics are wellbehaved, while conventional portmanteau statistics for white noise have too large sizes. Two empirical illustrations are included.

  • 184.
    Brännäs, Kurt
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics.
    Karlsson, Niklas
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics.
    Estimating the perceived tax scale within a labor supply model1996In: Economics Letters, ISSN 0165-1765, E-ISSN 1873-7374, Vol. 52, no 1, p. 75-79Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The Swedish marginal tax scale is too complex to be known in detail by individuals. This paper indicates that perceived tax scales can be estimated jointly with a labor supply equation. The differences between the true and estimated tax scales are found to be small.

  • 185.
    Brännäs, Kurt
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics.
    Nordman, Niklas
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics.
    An alternative conditional asymmetry specification for stock returns2003In: Applied Financial Economics, ISSN 0960-3107, E-ISSN 1466-4305, Vol. 13, no 7, p. 537-541Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The paper advances the log-generalized gamma distribution as a suitable generator of conditional skewness. Based on the NYSE composite daily returns an asMA-asQGARCH model along with skewness dynamics is estimated. The results indicate a skewness that varies between sizeable negative skewness and almost symmetry. The conditional variance and skewness measures are negatively correlated.

  • 186.
    Brännäs, Kurt
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics.
    Nordman, Niklas
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics.
    Conditional skewness modelling for stock returns2003In: Applied Economics Letters, ISSN 1350-4851, E-ISSN 1466-4291, Vol. 10, no 11, p. 725-728Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Two approaches to modelling conditional skewness in a nonlinear model for stock returns are studied. It is found that a normal distribution can be rejected. A log-generalized gamma distribution with one time-varying density parameter, and a Pearson IV specification with three parameters are better supported by data. While the log-generalized gamma indicates that time-varying skewness is an important feature of the daily composite returns of NYSE, the Pearson IV model suggests that excess kurtosis rather than skewness should be accounted for.

  • 187.
    Brännäs, Kurt
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics.
    Ohlsson, H.
    Asymmetric time series and temporal aggregation1999In: Review of Economics and Statistics, ISSN 0034-6535, E-ISSN 1530-9142, Vol. 81, no 2, p. 341-344Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The detection of nonlinearities could depend on the sampling frequency. Asymmetric monthly series may become symmetric when aggregated to quarterly or annual frequencies. We test against nonlinearity using the nonlinear autoregressive asymmetric moving average (ARasMA) model, which nests the linear ARMA model as a special case. Using monthly, quarterly, and annual Swedish unemployment series, we find support for symmetry/linearity in the annual series but not in the monthly and quarterly series.

  • 188.
    Brännäs, Kurt
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics.
    Rosenqvist, G.
    Semiparametric estimation of heterogeneous count data models1994In: European Journal of Operational Research, ISSN 0377-2217, E-ISSN 1872-6860, Vol. 76, no 2, p. 247-258Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Unobserved heterogeneity in a stochastic model is usually represented by a mixing distribution. In this paper a semiparametric estimator is adapted to over-dispersed Poisson regression models. No assumptions are needed about the estimated mixing distribution. The parameters of included explanatory variables are estimated at the same time. The applicability and promising properties of the method are illustrated. Empirically the estimator is applied to a coffee purchase model and to a business travel frequency model subject to zero truncation. The approach is useful, e.g., in marketing research where socio-demographic variables as well as marketing instruments can be included as explanatory variables.

  • 189.
    Bröste, Denise
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics.
    Åstrand, Elias
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics.
    Rural, Urban and Metropole Areas: A study on differences in wellbeing depending on where you live2019Independent thesis Basic level (degree of Bachelor), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
  • 190.
    Byström, Jesper
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics.
    Effekten av offshoring på löner i utvecklingsländer2018Independent thesis Basic level (degree of Bachelor), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
    Abstract [sv]

    Av den ökade globala handeln under de senaste åren kan slutsatsen dras, att vi är mer öppnaoch att den globala marknaden växer sig allt större. År 1960 låg handeln av BNP i världen pårunt 24%, och 2016 uppgick andelen till 56%. Utifrån detta har människor möjlighet att handla,arbeta och bo i andra länder, men påverkas lönen av denna öppenhet?

    Enligt teorin så kommer faktorpriserna, priserna på till exempel arbetskraft, kapital och jord attutjämnas vid en ökad handel mellan länder. Vid full frihandel, skulle arbetskraften av sammaslag få samma lön över hela handelsområdet.

    Denna studie har undersökts hur offshoring påverkar lönen för låg- medel- och högutbildade iåtta utvecklingsländer under perioden 1995-2009. Offshoring är ett begrepp som betyder attman flyttar verksamheten utomlands. Ett exempel är när ett företag väljer att flytta sinproduktion utomlands, där arbetskraften är lägre.

    Resultatet visade att offshoring hade en positiv effekt på lönen för alla tre utbildningsgrupperoch att skillnaden av effekten av offshoring mellan utbildningsgrupperna var väldigt liten.

  • 191.
    Byström, Jesper
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics.
    The impact of electricity prices on the number of workers: - A study in the Swedish manufacturing industry2019Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (One Year)), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
    Abstract [en]

    This study investigates the impact of the price of electricity on the number of workers in the Swedish manufacturing industry. This study also investigates the effect of a “shock” in the price of electricity on the number of workers in the manufacturing industry. This study is using economic theory and earlier literature to try to explain the results obtained in this study.

    This study has found that a causality exists between the price of electricity and the number of workers in the manufacturing industry. The result from this study implies that an increase inthe price of electricity predicts a short-term negative effect on the number of workers. If the price of electricity is “shocked” with one standard deviation, everything else held constant, the number of workers decreases.

    This study has found that a causality exists between the price of electricity and the number of workers in the manufacturing industry. The result from this study implies that an increase inthe price of electricity predicts a short-term negative effect on the number of workers. If the price of electricity is “shocked” with one standard deviation, everything else held constant, the number of workers decreases.

  • 192.
    Bäckström, Peter
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics. Totalförsvarets forskningsinstitut, Avdelningen för försvarsanalys.
    Are Economic Upturns Bad for Military Recruitment?: A Study on Swedish Regional Data 2011–20152019In: Defence and Peace Economics, ISSN 1024-2694, E-ISSN 1476-8267, Vol. 30, no 7, p. 813-829Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper represents the first effort to explore the relationship between civilian labour market conditions and the supply of labour to the military in the all-volunteer environment that Sweden entered after the abolishment of the peacetime draft in 2010. The paper investigates the effect of civilian unemployment on the rate of applications from individuals aged 18–25 to initiate basic military training, using panel data on Swedish counties for the period 2011–2015. A linear fixed-effects model is estimated to investigate the relationship, while controlling for a range of socio-demographic covariates, unobserved heterogeneity on the regional level, as well as aggregate trends on the national level. The results of the panel-data analysis indicate that the unemployment rate has a positive and statistically significant effect on the application rate. These results are robust to non-linear form specifications, as well as allowing the civilian unemployment rate to be endogenous. As such, the results suggest that the civilian labour market environment in Sweden can give rise to non-trivial fluctuations in the supply of applications to initiate basic military training within the Swedish Armed Forces.

  • 193.
    Bäckström, Peter
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics.
    Essays on military labour supply in the era of voluntary recruitment2020Licentiate thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This thesis consists of an introductory part and two self-contained chapters related to the supply of volunteers to the Swedish Armed Forces.

    Chapter [I] represents the first effort to explore the relationship between civilian labour market conditions and the supply of labour to the military in the all-volunteer environment that Sweden entered after the abolishment of the peacetime draft in 2010. The effect of civilian unemployment on the rate of applications from individuals aged 18 to 25 to initiate basic military training is investigated using panel data on Swedish counties for the years 2011 through 2015. A linear fixed-effects model is estimated to investigate the relationship, while controlling for a range of socio-demographic covariates and unobserved heterogeneity on the regional level, as well as aggregate trends on the national level. The results indicate a positive and statistically significant relationship between the unemployment rate and the application rate. The results are robust to non-linear form specifications, as well as allowing the civilian unemployment rate to be endogenous. As such, the results suggest that the civilian labour market environment in Sweden can give rise to non-trivial fluctuations in the supply of applications to initiate basic military training within the Swedish Armed Forces.

    Chapter [II] studies how local labour market conditions influence the quality composition of those who volunteer for military service in Sweden. A fixed-effects regression model is estimated on a panel data set containing IQ scores for those who applied for military basic training across Swedish municipalities during the period 2010 to 2016. The main finding is that low civilian employment rates at the local level tend to increase the mean IQ score of those who volunteer for military service, whereas the opposite is true if employment rates in the civilian labour market move in a more favourable direction. As such, the results suggest that the negative impact of a strong civilian economy on recruitment volumes is reinforced by a deterioration in recruit quality.

  • 194.
    Bäckström, Peter
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics. Division of Defence Analysis, Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI), Stockholm, Sweden.
    Self-Selection and Recruit Quality in Sweden's All Volunteer Force: Do Civilian Opportunities Matter?2019Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper studies how local labour market conditions influence the quality composition of those who volunteer for military service in Sweden. A fixed-effects regression model is estimated on a panel data set containing IQ scores for those who applied for military basic training across Swedish municipalities during the period 2010 to 2016. The main finding is that low civilian employment rates at the local level tend to increase the mean IQ score of those who volunteer for military service, whereas the opposite is true if employment rates in the civilian labour market move in a more favourable direction. As such, the results suggest that the negative impact of a strong civilian economy on recruitment volumes is reinforced by a deterioration in recruit quality.

  • 195.
    Bäckström, Peter
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics. Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI), 164 90 Stockholm.
    Sandow, Erika
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Demographic and Ageing Research (CEDAR). Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics.
    Westerlund, Olle
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Demographic and Ageing Research (CEDAR). Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics.
    Commuting and timing of retirement2016In: The annals of regional science, ISSN 0570-1864, E-ISSN 1432-0592, Vol. 56, no 1, p. 125-152Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Interregional commuting is an important feature of labour supply and regional labour market adjustment. In this study, we examine the effect of long-distance commuting (LDC) on timing of retirement. Previous research indicates negative health effects and substantial disutility of commuting. Potentially, this may affect the labour supply of older workers via early retirement. Longitudinal population register data from Sweden on employed older workers are used for semi-parametric estimation of survival in the labour force. The results for men indicate shorter survival in the labour force/ earlier retirement for LDCs, primarily among men with high education. For women, there is no evidence of LDC being associated with early retirement. For women with high education, there are indications of longer survival in the labour force among the commuters. The seemingly contradictory results for the highly educated may be due to gender differences in commuting distances and socio-economic attributes of commuters.

  • 196.
    Carlgren, Mattias
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics.
    Comparing turning point predictions for growth cycles: Using Swedish GDP for the period 1970-20132014Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (Two Years)), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
  • 197.
    Carlgren, Mattias
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics.
    Effekten av olika sorters hälsoinformation på efterfrågan på rött och vitt kött.2012Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (One Year)), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
  • 198.
    Carlsson, Christian
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics.
    Profiting from serial correlation: Constructing a trading strategy on the DAX2017Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (One Year)), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
    Abstract [en]

    This paper studies how technical analysis has been used throughout historyand constructs a technical trading strategy to be used in a computer algorithm.The strategy is based on a linear regression indicator and aims to prot fromthe assumption that markets, in this case the DAX, has some degree of serialcorrelation in daily price-movements. The strategy developed in this paper doesbeat a buy and hold with a substantial margin. Further, I test the validity of theseresults by simulating two different sets of random stock-paths using monte-carlosimulations; one following a geometric Brownian motion and the other a wienerprocess with serial correlation. I nd that the strategy based on a linear regressionhas signicantly higher returns than a buy and hold strategy over the same timeperiod and that the results generated by the strategy on the DAX give some degreeof evidence for serial correlation in daily prices on the DAX.

  • 199.
    Carlsson, Christian
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics.
    The fall of Lehman Brothers: A literary overview of the internal and external factors that lead to the largest bankruptcy in history2015Independent thesis Basic level (degree of Bachelor), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
  • 200. Carlsson, Fredrik
    et al.
    Lampi, Elina
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics.
    Martinsson, Peter
    The marginal values of noise disturbance from air traffic: does the time of the day matter?2004In: Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, ISSN 1361-9209, E-ISSN 1879-2340, Vol. 9, no 5, p. 373-385Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper analyzes the marginal willingness to pay for changes in noise levels related to changes in the volume of flight movements at a city airport in Stockholm, Sweden, by using a choice experiment. When estimating marginal willingness to pay for different times of the day and days of the week, we find that these vary with the temporal dimensions: mornings and evenings have higher marginal values. Interestingly, a substantial proportion of the respondents prefer no changes in the current noise level. The paper concludes with a policy discussion related to incentive-based pricing.

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