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  • 851.
    Åström, Christofer
    et al.
    Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för folkhälsa och klinisk medicin, Yrkes- och miljömedicin.
    Orru, Hans
    Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för folkhälsa och klinisk medicin, Yrkes- och miljömedicin. orru@ut.ee.
    Rocklöv, Joacim
    Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för folkhälsa och klinisk medicin, Epidemiologi och global hälsa. Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för folkhälsa och klinisk medicin, Yrkes- och miljömedicin.
    Strandberg, Gustav
    Rossby Centre, SMHI, Norrköping, Sweden.
    Ebi, Kristie L
    Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för folkhälsa och klinisk medicin, Yrkes- och miljömedicin.
    Forsberg, Bertil
    Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för folkhälsa och klinisk medicin, Yrkes- och miljömedicin.
    Heat-related respiratory hospital admissions in Europe in a changing climate: a health impact assessment2013Ingår i: BMJ Open, ISSN 2044-6055, E-ISSN 2044-6055, Vol. 3, nr 1, s. e001842-Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Objectives Respiratory diseases are ranked second in Europe in terms of mortality, prevalence and costs. Studies have shown that extreme heat has a large impact on mortality and morbidity, with a large relative increase for respiratory diseases. Expected increases in mean temperature and the number of extreme heat events over the coming decades due to climate change raise questions about the possible health impacts. We assess the number of heat-related respiratory hospital admissions in a future with a different climate.                                

    Design A Europe-wide health impact assessment.                                

    Setting An assessment for each of the EU27 countries.                                

    Methods Heat-related hospital admissions under a changing climate are projected using multicity epidemiological exposure–response relationships applied to gridded population data and country-specific baseline respiratory hospital admission rates. Times-series of temperatures are simulated with a regional climate model based on four global climate models, under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios.                                

    Results Between a reference period (1981–2010) and a future period (2021–2050), the total number of respiratory hospital admissions attributed to heat is projected to be larger in southern Europe, with three times more heat attributed respiratory hospital admissions in the future period. The smallest change was estimated in Eastern Europe with about a twofold increase. For all of Europe, the number of heat-related respiratory hospital admissions is projected to be 26 000 annually in the future period compared with 11 000 in the reference period.                                

    Conclusions The results suggest that the projected effects of climate change on temperature and the number of extreme heat events could substantially influence respiratory morbidity across Europe.                                

     

  • 852.
    Åström, Christofer
    et al.
    Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för folkhälsa och klinisk medicin, Yrkes- och miljömedicin.
    Oudin Åström, Daniel
    Lund Universitet.
    Andersson, Camilla
    SMHI.
    Ebi, Kristie L.
    University of Washington.
    Forsberg, Bertil
    Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för folkhälsa och klinisk medicin, Yrkes- och miljömedicin.
    Future health impact of higher ambient temperatures in Stockholm, SwedenManuskript (preprint) (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
  • 853.
    Åström, Christofer
    et al.
    Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för folkhälsa och klinisk medicin, Yrkes- och miljömedicin.
    Oudin Åström, Daniel
    Lund Universitet.
    Andersson, Camilla
    SMHI.
    Ebi, Kristie L.
    University of Washington.
    Forsberg, Bertil
    Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för folkhälsa och klinisk medicin, Yrkes- och miljömedicin.
    Vulnerability reduction needed to adapt to projected future heat exposure in Europe: Magnitude and determinantsManuskript (preprint) (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
  • 854.
    Åström, Christofer
    et al.
    Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för folkhälsa och klinisk medicin, Yrkes- och miljömedicin.
    Åström, Daniel Oudin
    Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för folkhälsa och klinisk medicin, Yrkes- och miljömedicin. Department of Clinical Sciences, Malmö, Lund University, Malmö, Sweden.
    Andersson, Camilla
    Ebi, Kristie L
    Forsberg, Bertil
    Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för folkhälsa och klinisk medicin, Yrkes- och miljömedicin.
    Vulnerability Reduction Needed to Maintain Current Burdens of Heat-Related Mortality in a Changing Climate-Magnitude and Determinants2017Ingår i: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, ISSN 1661-7827, E-ISSN 1660-4601, Vol. 14, nr 7, artikel-id 741Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The health burden from heatwaves is expected to increase with rising global mean temperatures and more extreme heat events over the coming decades. Health-related effects from extreme heat are more common in elderly populations. The population of Europe is rapidly aging, which will increase the health effects of future temperatures. In this study, we estimate the magnitude of adaptation needed to lower vulnerability to heat in order to prevent an increase in heat-related deaths in the 2050s; this is the Adaptive Risk Reduction (ARR) needed. Temperature projections under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 from 18 climate models were coupled with gridded population data and exposure-response relationships from a European multi-city study on heat-related mortality. In the 2050s, the ARR for the general population is 53.5%, based on temperature projections under RCP 4.5. For the population above 65 years in Southern Europe, the ARR is projected to be 45.9% in a future with an unchanged climate and 74.7% with climate change under RCP 4.5. The ARRs were higher under RCP 8.5. Whichever emission scenario is followed or population projection assumed, Europe will need to adapt to a great degree to maintain heat-related mortality at present levels, which are themselves unacceptably high, posing an even greater challenge.

  • 855.
    Öman, Mikael
    et al.
    Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för kirurgisk och perioperativ vetenskap, Kirurgi.
    Fredriksson, Rikard
    Bylund, Per-Olof
    Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för kirurgisk och perioperativ vetenskap, Kirurgi.
    Björnstig, Ulf
    Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för kirurgisk och perioperativ vetenskap, Kirurgi.
    Analysis of the mechanism of injury in non-fatal vehicle-to-pedestrian and vehicle-to-bicyclist frontal crashes in Sweden2016Ingår i: International Journal of Injury Control and Safety Promotion, ISSN 1745-7300, E-ISSN 1745-7319, Vol. 23, nr 4, s. 405-412Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The aim of this paper is to analyse and compare injuries and injury sources in pedestrian and bicyclist non-fatal real-life frontal passengercar crashes, considering in what way pedestrian injury mitigation systems also might be adequate for bicyclists. Data from 203 non-fatal vehicle-to-pedestrian and vehicle-to-bicyclist crashes from 1997 through 2006 in a city in northern Sweden were analysed by use of the hospitals injury data base in addition to interviews with the injured. In vehicle-to-pedestrian crashes (n = 103) head and neck injuries were in general due to hitting the windscreen frame, while in vehicle-to-bicycle crashes (n = 100) head and neck injuries were typically sustained by ground impact. Abdominal, pelvic and thoracic injuries in pedestrians and thoracic injuries in bicyclists were in general caused by impacting the bonnet. In vehicle-to-pedestrian crashes, energy reducing airbags at critical impact points with low yielding ability on the car, as the bonnet and the windscreen frame, might reduce injuries. As vehicle-to-bicyclist crashes occurred mostly in good lighting conditions and visibility and the ground impact causing almost four times as many injuries as an impact to the different regions of the car, crash avoidance systems as well as separating bicyclists from motor traffic, may contribute to mitigate these injuries.

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