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Improving evolutionary forecasting requires progressing from studying repeated evolution of a single genotype under identical conditions to formulating broad principles. These principles should enable predictions of how similar species will adapt to similar selective pressures. Evolve-and-resequence experiments with multiple species allow testing forecasts on different biological levels and elucidating the causes for failed predictions. Here, we show that forecasts for adaptation to static culture conditions can be extended to multiple species by testing previous predictions for Pseudomonas syringae and Pseudomonas savastanoi. In addition to sequence divergence, these species differ in their repertoire of biofilm regulatory genes and structural components. Consistent with predictions, both species repeatedly produced biofilm mutants with a wrinkly spreader phenotype. Predominantly, mutations occurred in the wsp operon, with less frequent promoter mutations near uncharacterized diguanylate cyclases. However, mutational patterns differed on the gene level, which was explained by a lack of conservation in relative fitness of mutants between more divergent species. The same mutation was the most frequent for both species suggesting that conserved mutation hotspots can increase parallel evolution. This study shows that evolutionary forecasts can be extended across species, but that differences in the genotype-phenotype-fitness map and mutational biases limit predictability on a detailed molecular level.

The prevalence of multicellular organisms is due in part to their ability to form complex structures. How cells pack in these structures is a fundamental biophysical issue, underlying their functional properties. However, much remains unknown about how cell packing geometries arise, and how they are affected by random noise during growth - especially absent developmental programs. Here, we quantify the statistics of cellular neighborhoods of two different multicellular eukaryotes: lab-evolved 'snowflake' yeast and the green alga Volvox carteri. We find that despite large differences in cellular organization, the free space associated with individual cells in both organisms closely fits a modified gamma distribution, consistent with maximum entropy predictions originally developed for granular materials. This 'entropic' cellular packing ensures a degree of predictability despite noise, facilitating parent-offspring fidelity even in the absence of developmental regulation. Together with simulations of diverse growth morphologies, these results suggest that gamma-distributed cell neighborhood sizes are a general feature of multicellularity, arising from conserved statistics of cellular packing.

Experimental evolution with microbes is often highly repeatable under identical conditions, suggesting the possibility to predict short-term evolution. However, it is not clear to what degree evolutionary forecasts can be extended to related species in non-identical environments, which would allow testing of general predictive models and fundamental biological assumptions. To develop an extended model system for evolutionary forecasting, we used previous data and models of the genotype-to-phenotype map from the wrinkly spreader system in Pseudomonas fluorescens SBW25 to make predictions of evolutionary outcomes on different biological levels for Pseudomonas protegens Pf-5. In addition to sequence divergence (78% amino acid and 81% nucleotide identity) for the genes targeted by mutations, these species also differ in the inability of Pf-5 to make cellulose, which is the main structural basis for the adaptive phenotype in SBW25. The experimental conditions were changed compared to the SBW25 system to test if forecasts were extendable to a non-identical environment. Forty-three mutants with increased ability to colonize the air-liquid interface were isolated, and the majority had reduced motility and was partly dependent on the Pel exopolysaccharide as a structural component. Most (38/43) mutations are expected to disrupt negative regulation of the same three diguanylate cyclases as in SBW25, with a smaller number of mutations in promoter regions, including an uncharacterized polysaccharide synthase operon. A mathematical model developed for SBW25 predicted the order of the three main pathways and the genes targeted by mutations, but differences in fitness between mutants and mutational biases also appear to influence outcomes. Mutated regions in proteins could be predicted in most cases (16/22), but parallelism at the nucleotide level was low and mutational hot spot sites were not conserved. This study demonstrates the potential of short-term evolutionary forecasting in experimental populations and provides testable predictions for evolutionary outcomes in other Pseudomonas species.

Multicellularity has evolved numerous times across the tree of life. One of the most fundamental distinctions among multicellular organisms is their developmental mode: whether they stay together during growth and develop clonally, or form a group through the aggregation of free-living cells. The five eukaryotic lineages to independently evolve complex multicellularity (animals, plants, red algae, brown algae, and fungi) all develop clonally. This fact has largely been explained through social evolutionary theory’s lens of cooperation and conflict, where cheating within non-clonal groups has the potential to undermine multicellular adaptation. Multicellular organisms that form groups via aggregation could mitigate the costs of cheating by evolving kin recognition systems that prevent the formation of chimeric groups. However, recent work suggests that selection for the ability to aggregate quickly may constrain the evolution of highly specific kin recognition, sowing the seeds for persistent evolutionary conflict. Importantly, other features of aggregative multicellular life cycles may independently act to constrain the evolution of complex multicellularity. All known aggregative multicellular organisms are facultatively multicellular (as opposed to obligately multicellular), allowing unicellular-level adaptation to environmental selection. Because they primarily exist in a unicellular state, it may be difficult for aggregative multicellular organisms to evolve multicellular traits that carry pleiotropic cell-level fitness costs. Thus, even in the absence of social conflict, aggregative multicellular organisms may have limited potential for the evolution of complex multicellularity.

All multicellular organisms develop through one of two basic routes: they either aggregate from free-living cells, creating potentially chimeric multicellular collectives, or they develop clonally via mother-daughter cellular adhesion. Although evolutionary theory makes clear predictions about trade-offs between these developmental modes, these have never been experimentally tested in otherwise genetically identical organisms. We engineered unicellular baker's yeast (Saccharomyces cerevisiae) to develop either clonally ("snowflake''; Dace2) or aggregatively ("floc''; GAL1p::FLO1) and examined their fitness in a fluctuating environment characterized by periods of growth and selection for rapid sedimentation. When cultured independently, aggregation was far superior to clonal development, providing a 35% advantage during growth and a 2.5-fold advantage during settling selection. Yet when competed directly, clonally developing snowflake yeast rapidly displaced aggregative floc. This was due to unexpected social exploitation: snowflake yeast, which do not produce adhesive FLO1, nonetheless become incorporated into flocs at a higher frequency than floc cells themselves. Populations of chimeric clusters settle much faster than floc alone, providing snowflake yeast with a fitness advantage during competition. Mathematical modeling suggests that such developmental cheating may be difficult to circumvent; hypothetical "choosy floc'' that avoid exploitation by maintaining clonality pay an ecological cost when rare, often leading to their extinction. Our results highlight the conflict at the heart of aggregative development: non-specific cellular binding provides a strong ecological advantage-the ability to quickly form groups-but this very feature leads to its exploitation.