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Lundgren, Tommy
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Publications (10 of 63) Show all publications
Broberg, T., Brännlund, R., Lundgren, T. & Persson, L. (2026). Values and metrics of lost load in the Swedish manufacturing industry: a conceptual and empirical analysis. Heliyon, 12(12), Article ID e45130.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Values and metrics of lost load in the Swedish manufacturing industry: a conceptual and empirical analysis
2026 (English)In: Heliyon, ISSN 2405-8440, Vol. 12, no 12, article id e45130Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The power system is undergoing a transition toward more intermittent energy sources alongside rising electricity demand, both of which increase the risk of supply disruptions. In this context, understanding the societal value of reliable electricity is critical. The standard metric for outage costs is the value of lost load (VoLL), which reflects the economic loss per unit of unserved electricity. However, VoLL varies widely across firms and sectors, making cross-industry comparisons challenging. A more operational measure is the cost per hour (CpH) of interruption, which expresses outage costs in time-equivalent terms and is often more intuitive for practical decision-making. Our analysis, based on firm-level data on electricity use and economic output, shows that the cost of power disruptions has increased significantly over time. In 2016, the estimated cost of a 1-h outage for a typical Swedish industrial facility was 23 times the value of the lost electricity—up from 13 times in 2004. These figures account for factors such as permanent production losses and substantial restart costs, both of which vary significantly by industry. To reflect this heterogeneity, we provide theoretical bounds for VoLL and CpH, capturing differences in input flexibility, process characteristics, and exposure. For the empirical estimates, this is addressed through upper- and lower bounds The approach underscores the importance of selecting appropriate metrics when assessing the economic impact of outages or evaluating investments in grid reliability.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Cell Press, 2026
Keywords
Power outage, Value of lost load, Firm-level production data
National Category
Economics
Research subject
Economics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-256711 (URN)10.1016/j.heliyon.2026.e45130 (DOI)
Note

An earlier version of this work was published as a technical report (Energiforsk Report 2021:787) and posted as a working paper on SSRN (https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4657322). The present article constitutes a substantially revised and condensed version of that report.

Available from: 2026-07-14 Created: 2026-07-14 Last updated: 2026-07-14Bibliographically approved
Amjadi, G., Bostian, M. B., Lindström, H., Lundgren, T. & Vesterberg, M. (2025). The effect of environmental protection expenditures on industrial employment in Sweden. Environmental and Resource Economics, 88, 1070-1110
Open this publication in new window or tab >>The effect of environmental protection expenditures on industrial employment in Sweden
Show others...
2025 (English)In: Environmental and Resource Economics, ISSN 0924-6460, E-ISSN 1573-1502, Vol. 88, p. 1070-1110Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

In this paper, we empirically investigate how environmental protection expenditures affect sector-level employment within manufacturing industries, using detailed firm-level data for Sweden for the years 2002–2021. We use a structural model that allows for a decomposition of the total employment effect of environmental protection expenditures within a sector into a cost effect, a factor shift effect, and a demand effect. We add to previous literature by using instrumental variables in our empirical framework, to account for endogenous environmental spending stemming from, e.g., corporate social responsibility and self-regulation. Our results reveal that increased environmental protection expenditures generally have no statistically significant effect on employment among the sectors studied, with the paper and pulp sector being the exception, showing non-negligible negative effects on employment.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer Nature, 2025
Keywords
Environmental protection, Labor demand, Environmental regulation
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-235900 (URN)10.1007/s10640-025-00961-7 (DOI)001415629700001 ()2-s2.0-85217643621 (Scopus ID)
Funder
Forte, Swedish Research Council for Health, Working Life and Welfare, 2021-01768
Available from: 2025-02-25 Created: 2025-02-25 Last updated: 2025-12-05Bibliographically approved
Lindström, H., Lundgren, T. & Vesterberg, M. (2025). The effects of electricity and fuel prices on Swedish industry: a panel VAR approach. Energy Economics, 152, Article ID 109025.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>The effects of electricity and fuel prices on Swedish industry: a panel VAR approach
2025 (English)In: Energy Economics, ISSN 0140-9883, E-ISSN 1873-6181, Vol. 152, article id 109025Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

In this paper, we empirically examine the dynamic effects of electricity and fuel price changes on factor demand, utilizing detailed firm-level data from the Swedish manufacturing industry spanning 2004–2022. We employ a panel vector autoregressive model to analyze factor inputs and their associated prices. Our findings indicate that the demand for electricity and fuel is inelastic both immediately following a price change and over the following five years. Additionally, our results show that energy price shocks generally do not have statistically significant effects on labor demand, nor do they indicate any significant inter-fuel substitution.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2025
Keywords
Factor demand, Climate policy, Employment, Manufacturing
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-246239 (URN)10.1016/j.eneco.2025.109025 (DOI)2-s2.0-105020377838 (Scopus ID)
Funder
Forte, Swedish Research Council for Health, Working Life and Welfare
Available from: 2025-11-07 Created: 2025-11-07 Last updated: 2025-11-07Bibliographically approved
Lundgren, T. & Marklund, P.-O. (2024). Economics of biofuels: an overview. In: Tommy Lundgren; Moriah Bostian; Shunsuke Managi (Ed.), Encyclopedia of energy, natural resource, and environmental economics: Volume 1 (pp. 123-127). Elsevier
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Economics of biofuels: an overview
2024 (English)In: Encyclopedia of energy, natural resource, and environmental economics: Volume 1 / [ed] Tommy Lundgren; Moriah Bostian; Shunsuke Managi, Elsevier, 2024, p. 123-127Chapter in book (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Biofuels are regarded as energy sources with the potential to solve a series of problems related to the climate and sustainability. Expectations are that pursuing policies supporting biofuels will be beneficial for welfare and sustainability in societies. It is convenient to divide the effects of such policies into four categories: Climate effects, other environmental effects, energy security effects, and net economic effects. Reviewing the literature to date reveals that the effects of converting from fossil fuels to biofuels do not necessarily have positive net welfare effects, and the argument to substitute biofuels for fossil fuels is not as obvious as it initially appears to be. Short-run stringent climate policy objectives are proposed to counteract global warming, and increasing the use of biofuels is promoted as an adequate strategy. One important conclusion drawn from recent studies is that biofuels are not entirely carbon neutral, as is commonly assumed. Therefore, the use of biofuels as an instrument in climate policy must be carefully scrutinized before set into play on a global scale.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2024
Keywords
Bioenergy, Climate policy, Welfare
National Category
Other Social Sciences not elsewhere specified Economics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-249967 (URN)10.1016/B978-0-323-91013-2.00073-3 (DOI)2-s2.0-105029341046 (Scopus ID)9780323910132 (ISBN)9780323914079 (ISBN)
Available from: 2026-02-16 Created: 2026-02-16 Last updated: 2026-02-16Bibliographically approved
Lundgren, T. & Vesterberg, M. (2024). Efficiency in electricity distribution in Sweden and the effects of small-scale generation, electric vehicles and dynamic tariffs. Journal of Productivity Analysis, 62, 121-137
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Efficiency in electricity distribution in Sweden and the effects of small-scale generation, electric vehicles and dynamic tariffs
2024 (English)In: Journal of Productivity Analysis, ISSN 0895-562X, E-ISSN 1573-0441, Vol. 62, p. 121-137Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

We measure the cost of technical inefficiency for local electricity distribution firms in Sweden using Stochastic Frontier Analysis, and explore how small-scale generation, the number of electric vehicles and the introduction of dynamic pricing schemes affects the transient inefficiency and efficiency scores. Our results show little to no effect of these environmental variables on the cost of technical inefficiency of electricity distribution grids in Sweden.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer Nature, 2024
Keywords
Distributed generation, Efficiency, SFA
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-225970 (URN)10.1007/s11123-024-00724-4 (DOI)001234557000001 ()2-s2.0-85194714893 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2024-06-11 Created: 2024-06-11 Last updated: 2024-10-24Bibliographically approved
Lundgren, T., Bostian, M. & Managi, S. (2024). Encyclopedia of energy, natural resource, and environmental economics (2ed.). Elsevier
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Encyclopedia of energy, natural resource, and environmental economics
2024 (English)Book (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Encyclopedia of Energy, Natural Resource, and Environmental Economics, Second Edition, Three Volume Set covers energy economics in three subdisciplines which, when taken together compose an economic approach to the development and preservation of natural resources and environmental quality. The book focuses on energy-related subjects such as renewable energy, hydropower, nuclear power, and the political economy of energy. Other sections cover land and water use, such as mining, fisheries, agriculture, and forests. Although the three areas are closely related, they are not often presented as an integrated whole. This revised, three-volume set will bridges the gap by unifying these fields into a high-quality, comprehensive and unique overview. It will serve as an invaluable and unique tool to facilitate the first step in diving into a new subject within energy, resource or environmental economics. The chapters are written in a non-technical manner so that users outside of advanced academics or trained economists are also able to grasp the content easily. In addition, all chapters follow a specific template throughout, thus providing a consistent and logical format for the reader.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2024. p. 1248 Edition: 2
National Category
Environmental Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-249968 (URN)10.1016/C2020-1-02221-3 (DOI)2-s2.0-105029326113 (Scopus ID)9780323910132 (ISBN)9780323914079 (ISBN)
Available from: 2026-02-16 Created: 2026-02-16 Last updated: 2026-02-16Bibliographically approved
Brännlund, R., Lundgren, T. & Vesterberg, M. (2024). Klimatomställningen och industrin. Östersund: Tillväxtanalys: Myndigheten för tillväxtpolitiska utvärderingar och analyser
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Klimatomställningen och industrin
2024 (Swedish)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [sv]

I samband med att EU antog en ny klimatlag 2021 höjdes målet att minska växthusgasutsläppen från 40 procent till minst 55 procent senast 2030. Lagen omvandlar tidigare politiska åtaganden om att EU ska uppnå klimatneutralitet senast 2050 till en bindande skyldighet. I juli 2021 lade EU-kommissionen fram sitt förslag om ett uppdaterat ramverk Fit for 55, för att nå målet som slås fast i klimatlagen. Klimatpolitiken får effekter på Sveriges näringslivsstruktur. Strukturomvandling innebär att resurser flyttar från en del av ekonomin till en annan. Hur väl ekonomin kan anpassa sig till sådana förändringar är viktigt för hur tillväxten påverkas. Förmågan att ställa om kan också ge fördelar på den globala marknaden när det gäller att exportera hållbara varor och tjänster som efterfrågas globalt. Förändringarna kan vara både tillfälliga och permanenta. De kan också påverka olika delar av ekonomin olika. Den här rapporten belyser hur klimatpolitiken kan komma att påverka den svenska industrin, och innehåller en litteraturgenomgång, en empiriskanalys på mer aktuella data samt en konceptuell analys med ett räkneexempel.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Östersund: Tillväxtanalys: Myndigheten för tillväxtpolitiska utvärderingar och analyser, 2024. p. 63
Series
Tillväxtanalys rapporter ; 2024:10
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-234622 (URN)
Available from: 2025-01-27 Created: 2025-01-27 Last updated: 2025-01-27Bibliographically approved
Lundgren, T., Persson, L. & Brännlund, R. (2024). The cost of electricity supply interruptions and value of lost load in Swedish electricity intensive industrial plants. Östersund: Tillväxtanalys: Myndigheten för tillväxtpolitiska utvärderingar och analyser
Open this publication in new window or tab >>The cost of electricity supply interruptions and value of lost load in Swedish electricity intensive industrial plants
2024 (English)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

This study highlights the significant economic consequences of power outages for Sweden’s electricity-intensive industries and underscores the shortcomings of traditional metrics, such as value-added-based methods, in reliably estimating these costs. The study is part of Tillväxtanalys’s project "Economic Effects ofElectricity-Intensive Industries" (ELIN), which aims to explore if and how the government can act to shift the economy toward a greater or lesser reliance onelectricity-intensive activities. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Östersund: Tillväxtanalys: Myndigheten för tillväxtpolitiska utvärderingar och analyser, 2024. p. 56
Series
Working paper ; 2024:05
National Category
Economics
Research subject
Economics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-234696 (URN)
Available from: 2025-01-28 Created: 2025-01-28 Last updated: 2025-01-28Bibliographically approved
Amjadi, G. & Lundgren, T. (2022). Is industrial energy inefficiency transient or persistent? Evidence from Swedish manufacturing. Applied Energy, 309, Article ID 118324.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Is industrial energy inefficiency transient or persistent? Evidence from Swedish manufacturing
2022 (English)In: Applied Energy, ISSN 0306-2619, E-ISSN 1872-9118, Vol. 309, article id 118324Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Energy inefficiency in production implies that the same level of goods and services could be produced using less energy. The potential energy inefficiency of a firm may be linked to long-term structural rigidities in the production process and/or systematic shortcomings in management (persistent inefficiency), or associated with temporary issues like misallocation of resources (transient inefficiency). Eliminating or mitigating different inefficiencies may require different policy measures. Studies measuring industrial energy inefficiency have mostly focused on overall inefficiencies and have paid little attention to distinctions between the types. The aim of this study was to assess whether energy inefficiency is transient and/or persistent in the Swedish manufacturing industry. I used a firm-level panel dataset covering fourteen industrial sectors from 1997 to 2008 and estimated a stochastic energy demand frontier model. The model included a four-component error term separating persistent and transient inefficiency from unobserved heterogeneity and random noise. I found that both transient and persistent energy inefficiencies exist in most sectors of the Swedish manufacturing industry. Overall, persistent energy inefficiency was larger than transient, but varied considerably in different manufacturing sectors. The results suggest that, generally, energy inefficiencies in the Swedish manufacturing industry were related to structural rigidities connected to technology and/or management practices.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2022
Keywords
Energy inefficiency, Persistent and transient energy inefficiency, Stochastic energy demand frontier model
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-191271 (URN)10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.118324 (DOI)000773394100005 ()2-s2.0-85122298321 (Scopus ID)
Funder
Swedish Energy Agency
Available from: 2022-01-13 Created: 2022-01-13 Last updated: 2023-09-05Bibliographically approved
Bostian, M. B., Färe, R., Grosskopf, S. & Lundgren, T. (2022). Prevention or cure? Optimal abatement mix. Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, 24, 503-531
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Prevention or cure? Optimal abatement mix
2022 (English)In: Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, ISSN 1432-847X, E-ISSN 1867-383X, Vol. 24, p. 503-531Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

We develop a model for pollution abatement that distinguishes between prevention and treatment technologies, in order to better understand the optimal mix of abatement measures. Our model separates the production process into two stages, an initial production and prevention stage and a final treatment (or cure) stage. We allow for reallocation of abatement investment across the production stages, in order to improve overall abatement and production and to better understand the tradeoffs between abatement measures. This framework is relevant in practice for numerous industrial production processes, including manufacturing and energy, which employ different abatement measures at different stages of production. In our application to Sweden’s pulp and paper sector, we find the industry could achieve further gains to both production and emissions reductions, beyond those estimated using more common single-stage technology estimation methods, by reallocating abatement investments. These results could be used to improve firm environmental management decisions, and to better target policy incentives to specific forms of abatement.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer-Verlag Tokyo Inc., 2022
Keywords
Abatement, Emissions policy, Environmental investment, Network model, Production technology
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-192072 (URN)10.1007/s10018-021-00335-5 (DOI)000744903100002 ()2-s2.0-85123238923 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2022-02-02 Created: 2022-02-02 Last updated: 2022-12-01Bibliographically approved
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