Umeå University's logo

Using a broad range of materials (media and interviews), we analyse the development of three green megaprojects in the two northernmost regions of Sweden. We find support for the presence of a strong ideological fantasy tied to a few “green heroes”, supporting the notion that the investments are the ultimate answer not only to climate crisis but also to the territory’s perceived left-behindness. The symbolic construction of the fantasy also contributes to the production of killjoys through marginalizing and feminizing opposition to the megaprojects. Our analysis thereby points to the importance of a feminist intervention and critique of the neoliberal ideology that frames green megaprojects.

This research note contains an update of the research program “A promised land? Drivers, challenges and opportunities related to the (green) industrialization of Northern Sweden,” (nr. M22-0029) awarded by the Swedish Riksbankens Jubileumsfond’s in 2022. The document summarizes work in progress and is updated annually in different versions according to the requirements of the program. 

This interdisciplinary program aims to understand the economic, social, and political challenges and opportunities of the ongoing industrial transformation in northern Sweden. A key element of the program is to identify drivers, obstacles, and preconditions in a historical, present, and forward-looking process-perspective. 

Recent large investments in northern Sweden connected to the green transition – primarily within mining and manufacturing (fossil-free steel, batteries) – have led to substantial increases in local demand for labour. In a territory with low unemployment and a decreasing labour supply due to ageing and a history of net outmigration, there is a substantial risk that this increased labour demand will, particularly in the short term, draw at least to some extent from the public sector.

Against this backdrop, the chapter examines the dynamic effects of employment expansion in the mining and manufacturing industries on public sector employment in northern Sweden during the period 1990–2019. It also analyses which factors affect the probability of a worker leaving the public sector for a job in manufacturing or mining.

Our results suggest that the expansion of manufacturing and, in particular, mining has a negative short-term effect on public sector employment. The largest effect is attributable to poaching from public administration, with education and health less affected. Assuming a linear trend based on previous labour market interdependencies, a three standard deviation increase in mining (about 2,700 new jobs) and manufacturing (about 10,800 new jobs) could potentially lead to 8% of the current public administration workforce being poached. The results also indicate that younger individuals, low- and high-income earners, and those highly educated in the social or technical sciences are the most likely to leave the public sector. In the longer perspective, these vacancies go on to be filled by skilled but inexperienced workers.

A number of policy implications arise from the above findings. First, given the regional dimension of job mobility, policy-makers should consider how large investments influence the other parts of a regional economy, rather than simply attending to the immediate demands of focal industries. Second, while the poaching of public sector employees will inevitably occur, the functioning of the public sector also hinges on the supply of workers entering the labour market. There is therefore a pressing need to bolster the status of key public sector jobs and improve working conditions, thereby ensuring they are regarded as viable career opportunities when mining and manufacturing expands. The public sector should also ensure that it is in a position to attract and retain workers crowded out of the mining and manufacturing in the event of future rationalisation. Third, general policy interventions may not serve local needs, especially the spatial mismatch of available jobs and supply of workers. Support for relocation tailored to local demands is therefore crucial.

Resilience has gathered significant attention from economic geographers, yet their focus has primarily centered on economic outcomes at the regional level. This approach often overlooks the intricate micro-processes and lived experiences during crises, assuming that individual resilience can be understood solely through macro-level economic observations. We argue that comprehending the questions of resilience 'to what means' and 'to what ends' requires that we acknowledge the importance of social reproduction and daily practices. Through semi-structured interviews with mink farmers in Denmark and by using the concepts of spaces of dependence and spaces of engagement, we first highlight the everyday practices and broader social structures that individuals aim to preserve and reproduce. Second, we draw attention to the application of a relational spatial ontology in resilience studies by discussing cross-scalar networks of individuals as an adaptation strategy. In so doing, we contribute to the resilience literature in economic geography by highlighting that resilience for individuals entails the reproduction of everyday practices. We also draw attention to the consequences of network detachment for individual livelihoods. Thus unveiling how peripherality is shaped and re/produced, rather than given, through the evolving networks of 'left behind' people in 'left behind' places.

In discussing the regional dimensions of skills supply, this chapter has sought to demonstrate that the local reasons behind skills shortages vary. The key challenge facing many of Sweden’s rural regions is an absolute shortage of workers, which has been exacerbated in some regions by demand shocks related to rapid re- industrialisation. At the same time, there are municipalities (rural and particularly urban) with varying vacancy rates that are also experiencing high unemployment. This indicates local pockets of mismatch, with vacancies not matching the skills of the unemployed both in broader functional regions around urban cores and in relatively solitary rural regions. Moreover, it points to a spatial mismatch between vacancies on the one hand and the unemployed on the other

SLU arbetar sedan 2019 med regeringsuppdraget ”Uppdrag landsbygd”, som syftar till att stärka forskningen om Sveriges landsbygder och främja samverkan mellan de aktörer som bedriver forskning och arbetar inom landsbygds- och regional utveckling i Sverige. En del i uppdraget handlar om att bistå landsbygds- och infrastrukturdepartementet med policyrelevant information. I arbetet mot detta har vi inom Uppdrag landsbygd utvecklat så kallade policyverkstäder - workshopserier där forskare möts för att diskutera utpekade teman som är centrala för Sveriges landsbygder och som departementet önskar få inspel kring i arbetet med att ta fram beslutsunderlag till politiken. Syftet med processerna är att identifiera behov av ny policy för att adressera utmaningar och möjligheter för utveckling av svenska landsbygder inom respektive tema. Denna rapport är en bearbetad sammanfattning av resultatet från policyverkstaden på temat livsmedelsberedskap och skildrar de argument som presenterades av forskarna som deltog i workshopen.

This paper explores how the network structure of local inter-industry labour flows relates to regional economic resilience across 72 local labour markets in Sweden. Drawing on recent advancements in network science, we stress test these networks against the sequential elimination of their nodes, finding substantial heterogeneity in network robustness across regions. Regression analysis with least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) in the context of the 2008 financial crisis indicates that labour flow network robustness is a prominent structural predictor of employment change during crisis. These findings elaborate on how variation in the self-organisation of regional economies as complex systems makes for more or less resilient regions.

In recent years, Skellefteå has had significant population growth linked to the establishment of Northvolt. Between 2020 and 2023, the population growth in Skellefteå was 4.6 percent, which should be compared with an average population growth of 1.7 percent in Sweden. The main purpose of the report has been to describe how the labor market in Skellefteå has changed after 2017. 

The population growth can largely be explained by a sharp increase in immigration. For many years, the municipality has indeed had a positive net migration which, however, has not been able to compensate for the aging population. Therefore, the population has remained at stable levels until 2017. The strong immigration in recent years is mainly made up of men aged 25 to 64. In general, the proportion of men in the age range 15 to 64 is increasing, while the number of women aged 15 to 24 is decreasing, which may pose a future challenge connected to how to break the negative nativity trend. Even before 2017, Skellefteå had a high proportion of men, and the reduction in the number of women aged 15 to 24 may in the long run lead to a further distortion of the gender balance. A large part of the immigrants has for a long time consisted of people from the immediate area (mainly Umeå, but also smaller municipalities). This trend continues after 2017, when the number of migrants from Umeå increased even further. A significant part of the immigrants are also primarily men, but also women, from other countries. This too can pose a future challenge if they are not integrated into society.

Those who move to Skellefteå often get jobs that only require shorter training or introduction. This has increased since the establishment of Northvolt regardless of education level. At the same time, the degree of job changes is high among these immigrants, which indicates that these occupations are entry-level occupations. We also see that emigration has also increased in recent years, and this mainly concerns women aged 15–24. While immigrants mainly come from the surrounding municipalities, young Skellefteå residents move to university towns and the larger cities. In addition to the migration patterns, the commuting patterns have also changed somewhat over time. Commuters to Skellefteå mainly come from Umeå, and this has increased after 2017, followed by Stockholm (which, however, is less than half the number compared to those from Umeå) closely followed by Piteå, Luleå, Norsjö and Robertsfors. Apart from Umeå and to some extent Luleå, the number of individuals for all municipalities to commute from has decreased after 2017, while commuting from Skellefteå also has generally increased. Here too, Umeå is the most common place of work, followed by the neighboring municipalities.

The proportion of employees in professions that require a longer university or college education is increasing in Skellefteå, which in itself is a positive development as it generally reduces sensitivity to future structural changes. On the other hand, the percentage who get a job immediately after graduation is decreasing, even among those with a longer university or college education. This applies both to those already living in Skellefteå, but above all to immigrants who, to an increasingly lesser extent, start working in professions that require a university degree. This may be due to a matching problem between the applicants and the employers. But it may also be due to a change in search behavior among job seekers, where new graduates immediately after graduation first apply for a simpler profession and then for more qualified professions. It may also be due to higher requirements for work experience among employers. As the large majority of immigrants with university qualifications remain within this occupational group, it indicates a growing matching problem driven by over-education as the labour market segments experiencing employment growth do not require university education.

A high school diploma (gymnasium) is the most common highest level of education in Skellefteå. At the same time, the number of employees in professions that require a shorter education or introduction is decreasing. The fact that the number of people employed decreases in professions that require a shorter education or introduction need not be a negative thing given that it does not lead to increased unemployment. It can even be a positive development if it leads to more people being employed with more advanced tasks. On the other hand, it can lead to increased unemployment among individuals with a shorter education, a group that has more difficulty adapting to changed conditions on the labor market. Given such a development, it may become necessary to carry out continuing education efforts for that group. A certain increase in the workforce that has not completed upper secondary education can be seen in recent years and is also a trend that should be actively countered.

Incomes in Skellefteå have risen since 2017, especially men's incomes. Immigrants to Skellefteå generally have lower wages compared to the population as a whole. This is probably due to the fact that the immigrants work to a greater extent in occupations that require shorter training or introduction. The move-in together with generally higher wages and limited construction has had a positive effect on housing prices. Higher housing prices should lead to increased construction in the municipality, but this can be dampened by a higher cost situation (wages, building materials, interest, etc.) in the construction sector. Limited housing construction leads to a redistribution of income from wage earners to property owners. Those who move into Skellefteå live to a greater extent in tenements and condominiums compared to the average Skellefteå resident. Immigrants settle to a large extent in the central parts of Skellefteå. Again, this does not have to be negative as it often takes time for a new mover to get to know a new city and it can take time to find longer-term accommodation. Given that the moving surplus also consists of many young men, centrally located apartments are more suitable for this group compared to detached houses for families with children. The limited mobility on the housing market can be another reason why immigrants end up in certain areas and in certain types of housing to a large extent. It is possible to make some comparisons with the labor market, where a simpler job can be an entry-level job while you are looking for a longer-term job. 

This document lays out the background for the research program “A promised land? Drivers, challenges and opportunities related to the (green) industrialization of Northern Sweden,” (nr. M22-0029) awarded by the Swedish Riksbankens Jubileumsfond’s in 2022. The document summarizes work in progress and may therefore be updated and republished in different versions according to the requirements of the program. 

This interdisciplinary program aims to understand the economic, social, and political challenges and opportunities of the ongoing industrial transformation in northern Sweden. A key element of the program is to identify drivers, obstacles, and preconditions in a historical, present, and forward-looking process-perspective. 

Low-wage jobs are often regarded as dead-ends in the labour market careers of young people. Previous research focused on disentangling to what degree the association between a low-wage job at the start of working life and limited chances of transitioning to better-paid employment is causal or spurious. Less attention has been paid to the channels that may facilitate the upward wage mobility of low-wage workers. We focus on such mechanisms, and we scrutinize the impact of social ties to higher-educated co-workers. Due to knowledge spillovers, job referrals, as well as firm-level productivity gains, having higher-educated co-workers may improve an individual's chances of transitioning to a better-paid job. We use linked employer-employee data from longitudinal Swedish registers and panel data models that incorporate measures of low-wage workers' social ties to higher-educated co-workers. Our results confirm that having social ties to higher-educated co-workers increases individual chances of transitioning to better-paid employment.