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Horstkotte, Tim
Publications (10 of 39) Show all publications
Horstkotte, T., Assmann, J., Hedenås, H., Normand, S. & Olofsson, J. (2026). Increase in plant productivity in the tundra in Sweden is not related to increasing presence of warm-adapted vascular plant species. Ecography
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Increase in plant productivity in the tundra in Sweden is not related to increasing presence of warm-adapted vascular plant species
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2026 (English)In: Ecography, ISSN 0906-7590, E-ISSN 1600-0587Article in journal (Refereed) Epub ahead of print
Abstract [en]

Over the past decades, Arctic and alpine biomes have warmed faster than the global average. Substantial vegetation changes have been reported as a response to this warming, including increased productivity and the spread of warm-adapted (thermophilic) species that are less resistant to grazing pressure into higher latitudes and altitudes. At a local and regional level, however, reported vegetation changes are much more variable. Here, we investigate community changes of vascular plant species in the mountain tundra in Sweden during the period 2003 to 2020 by combining remote sensing and vegetation monitoring at 419 permanent plots. We first investigated changes in vegetation productivity by analysing the trend in the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). We then used plot averages of species-specific environmental indicators weighted by species occurrences to test whether the vegetation changed towards a more thermophilic state with a decreased resistance to grazing by mammalian herbivores during that time. We found an increase in vegetation productivity in ca 23% of the sites, and no trend in ca 55% of the sites. There was no general trend towards an increased thermophilization of vascular plant communities. Furthermore, at the plot scale, the change in NDVI during the study period was not explained by thermophilization of the plant community. However, warm-adapted forbs increased more than cold-adapted species. We conclude that, although part of the vascular vegetation is getting more thermophilic, the observed increase in vegetation productivity during the last two decades is not driven by an increase in warm-adapted species. We also suggest that reindeer grazing, which occurs in almost the entire study region, contributes to the preservation of cold-adapted Arctic–alpine biodiversity by selectively feeding on warm-adapted vascular species.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
John Wiley & Sons, 2026
Keywords
Arctic vegetation, ecological indicators, environmental monitoring, herbivory, NDVI, vegetation dynamics
National Category
Ecology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-257857 (URN)10.1002/ecog.08201 (DOI)001829877200001 ()2-s2.0-105045499092 (Scopus ID)
Funder
EU, Horizon 2020, 869471
Available from: 2026-08-28 Created: 2026-08-28 Last updated: 2026-08-28
Lisberg Jensen, E., Bjärstig, T., Össbo, Å., Priebe, J., Horstkotte, T., Mårald, E., . . . Lempinen, H. (2025). Den gröna omställningens ohållbara polarisering. Västerbottenskuriren (2025-02-04)
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Den gröna omställningens ohållbara polarisering
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2025 (Swedish)In: Västerbottenskuriren, ISSN 1104-0246, no 2025-02-04, p. 1Article in journal, News item (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.)) Published
Abstract [sv]

Vi uppmanar regeringen att kraftfullt stärka en grön omställning grundad i demokratiskt deltagande, tillit och långsiktighet. I stället för att se kritik och gnissel som hinder måste regeringen stärka processer för att lyfta fram perifera områdens perspektiv och redan i planeringsstadiet överbrygga orättvisor mellan olika platser och samhällsgrupper regionalt, nationellt och internationellt, skriver ett stort antal forskare.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Umeå: Västerbottenskurirens Aktiebolag, 2025. p. 1
National Category
Other Social Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-234965 (URN)
Projects
Blickar från periferin: När global energiomställning möter nordisk glesbygd
Available from: 2025-02-04 Created: 2025-02-04 Last updated: 2025-02-04Bibliographically approved
Howlett, C., Brattland, C., Broderstad, E. G., Gross, L., Hausner, V., Horstkotte, T., . . . Seini, M. (2025). Including indigenous knowledge in land use governance and decision-making: a dialogue on experiences, challenges and opportunities. Arctic Review on Law and Politics, 16(1), 139-166
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Including indigenous knowledge in land use governance and decision-making: a dialogue on experiences, challenges and opportunities
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2025 (English)In: Arctic Review on Law and Politics, ISSN 1891-6252, E-ISSN 2387-4562, Vol. 16, no 1, p. 139-166Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

There is significant recognition at multiple levels of governance on the need for inclusion of Indigenous knowledge systems in collaborative environmental governance and land use decision-making. Considerable challenges in operationalization remain, however, specifically, the how of inclusion. This paper is a synthesis of and a reflection on a thematic series of papers contributing an understanding of the recognition and inclusion of Indigenous knowledges in environmental governance. All the research, in different ways, tackled the incorporation of Indigenous knowledges, values and perspectives into environmental and resource governance. These research papers include: methodological and philosophical approaches used in Australia with an Aboriginal knowledge program designed to facilitate values and decision-making in environmental governance; a study of barriers to recognizing local and Sámi knowledge of the environment in reindeer husbandry; land use governance in wind power development in Sámi areas in Norway; an interview study assessing how the forest industry seeks to integrate Sámi reindeer herding communities’ knowledge in land use planning in Sweden; a study on how Sámi reindeer herders from Northern Sweden are attempting to adapt to changing climate and land use conditions; and an insight into the Indigenous-state-industry dialogue during the (still ongoing) permit process of the so-called Násávárre mining case in Nordland County, Norway. Whilst highly diverse, these cases all point to epistemological, practical and political impediments to effective inclusion, and how these might be addressed.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Brill Academic Publishers, 2025
Keywords
environmental, Indigenous knowledge systems, resource governance
National Category
Environmental Sciences Human Geography
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-257360 (URN)10.1163/23874562-20250004 (DOI)2-s2.0-105046363146 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2026-08-11 Created: 2026-08-11 Last updated: 2026-08-11Bibliographically approved
Hagenberg, L. W., Horstkotte, T., Pijcke, F., Abderhalden, B. L., Olofsson, J. & Siewert, M. B. (2025). Semi-domesticated reindeer inhibit the recruitment and expansion of mountain birch at the fennoscandian treeline. Ecosystems, 28(6), Article ID 75.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Semi-domesticated reindeer inhibit the recruitment and expansion of mountain birch at the fennoscandian treeline
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2025 (English)In: Ecosystems, ISSN 1432-9840, E-ISSN 1435-0629, Vol. 28, no 6, article id 75Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Herbivory may offset climate change-driven treeline expansion into the tundra, but the strength of this effect is rarely quantified. This study leverages a unique semi-natural experiment involving Malla Strict Nature Reserve in northernmost Finland, where the reindeer herding regime shifted from being nearly ungrazed for several decades to being heavily grazed for the past two decades. This is contrasted by low grazing pressure in the adjacent herding district in Norway, which is separated by the border fence preventing free reindeer movement between the two countries. We aimed to quantify the effects of reindeer browsing and grazing on mountain birch treeline position and structure on both sides. We measured seedling numbers and the allometry of trees, vegetation composition, nutrient concentrations in soils and birch leaves, and radial tree growth. We found higher numbers of seedlings and saplings in the area with lower reindeer density, indicating that the treeline may be responding to climatic forcing by expanding into the tundra. Contrastingly, we observed almost no recruitment and treeline expansion in the area with high reindeer density. Furthermore, while birch leaves showed signs of nitrogen enrichment under high reindeer density, we found no differences in soil chemical composition or birch tree growth rates. Our results suggest that the high density of reindeer in Malla Strict Nature Reserve keeps the treeline in a browsing trap, thereby preventing climate change-driven forest expansion. These results are highly relevant for land management decisions that aim to preserve mountain tundra.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer Nature, 2025
Keywords
Betula pubescens ssp. czerepanovii, Fennoscandia, grazing and browsing, Rangifer tarandus, treeline, tundra
National Category
Ecology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-246778 (URN)10.1007/s10021-025-01025-z (DOI)001608185700001 ()2-s2.0-105021021092 (Scopus ID)
Funder
Swedish Research Council Formas, 2022-01196Swedish Research Council, 2021-05767
Available from: 2025-11-27 Created: 2025-11-27 Last updated: 2025-11-27Bibliographically approved
Rasmus, S., Sarkki, S., Wang, I., Burgess, P., Habeck, J. O., Horstkotte, T., . . . Eronen, J. T. (2025). Surprises and Dreams: workshop method to co-create community-based transformative knowledge. The Polar Journal, 15(2), 432-457
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Surprises and Dreams: workshop method to co-create community-based transformative knowledge
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2025 (English)In: The Polar Journal, ISSN 2154-896X, E-ISSN 2154-8978, Vol. 15, no 2, p. 432-457Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Pressing sustainability challenges call for research methodologies that enable co-creation of transformative knowledge that that can catalyse societal and policy change. We introduce a participatory workshop method called ‘Surprises and Dreams’ and demonstrate how it can support the co-creation of systems, normative, and transformative knowledge. The method uses cognitive mapping to explore the current state of the system and potential future disruptions (systems knowledge) and includes steps for eliciting participants’ visions and aspirations (normative knowledge). Taken together this can lead towards creation of transformative knowledge that could contribute to finding acceptable solutions to locally relevant problems. In a case study, we demonstrate the application of the method on the current state and future developments in reindeer husbandry in Fennoscandia. Based on the results, we position the three types of knowledges into a Three Horizons framework and discuss how our method supports identifying and describing transformative knowledge. Our case study responds to a need to understand complex systems and normative and contested future aspirations and to achieve change towards more sustainable solutions. We conclude that our method is a promising co-creation tool, also beyond our case study, in its applicability to comparable situations when community-based knowledge is needed.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Routledge, 2025
Keywords
Futures research, participatory workshops, reindeer husbandry, three horizons framework, transformative knowledge
National Category
Ecology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-246553 (URN)10.1080/2154896X.2025.2565959 (DOI)001605304400001 ()2-s2.0-105020747554 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2025-11-21 Created: 2025-11-21 Last updated: 2026-02-12Bibliographically approved
Laptander, R., Horstkotte, T., Habeck, J. O., Rasmus, S., Komu, T., Matthes, H., . . . Forbes, B. C. (2024). Critical seasonal conditions in the reindeer-herding year: A synopsis of factors and events in Fennoscandia and northwestern Russia. Polar Science, 39, Article ID 101016.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Critical seasonal conditions in the reindeer-herding year: A synopsis of factors and events in Fennoscandia and northwestern Russia
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2024 (English)In: Polar Science, ISSN 1873-9652, E-ISSN 1876-4428, Vol. 39, article id 101016Article, review/survey (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

In this article, we identify what herders in Fennoscandia and northwestern Russia see as critical conditions and events in the annual reindeer herding cycle. Indigenous Sámi and Yamal reindeer herders identify eight seasons, each of which has crucial importance in its own way. Differences in perception between Fennoscandian and northwestern Russian reindeer herders about good and bad seasonal conditions are based on the degree of climatic and geographic variation, herd control and the variety of simultaneous pressures on pastures. The scope and speed of ongoing climate change in the Arctic will profoundly modify these conditions, and consequently shape critical events and outcomes in reindeer herding. The resulting challenges need to be assessed in the context of social and economic dynamics. Reindeer herders throughout Fennoscandia and Russia are concerned about future prospects of their livelihood. To adapt to climate change and develop new strategies, reindeer herders must have access to pastures; they must retain their mobility and flexibility; and their participation in land-use decisions must be endorsed.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2024
Keywords
Climate change adaptation, Indigenous peoples and local communities, Reindeer, Seasonality and harmful climatic conditions
National Category
Environmental Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-218308 (URN)10.1016/j.polar.2023.101016 (DOI)001210542600001 ()2-s2.0-85179092755 (Scopus ID)
Funder
European Commission, 869471Academy of Finland, 338558
Available from: 2023-12-21 Created: 2023-12-21 Last updated: 2025-04-24Bibliographically approved
Eilola, S., Horstkotte, T., Forbes, B. C., Habeck, J. O., Komu, T., Rasmus, S. & Fagerholm, N. (2024). Perceptions on and impacts of environmental changes under multiple stressors: a case study from two communities in northern Fennoscandia. Regional Environmental Change, 24(2), Article ID 89.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Perceptions on and impacts of environmental changes under multiple stressors: a case study from two communities in northern Fennoscandia
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2024 (English)In: Regional Environmental Change, ISSN 1436-3798, E-ISSN 1436-378X, Vol. 24, no 2, article id 89Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Against the backcloth of particularly fast environmental change in the Arctic, this study juxtaposes local perceptions of environmental change in two communities in the boreal zone of Northern Europe with scientific data. The local knowledge was gathered through an online participatory mapping survey among the two communities and scientific evidence was gathered from various peer-reviewed and official monitoring sources. Local knowledge of environmental change in Savukoski (Finland) resembles that in Jokkmokk (Sweden). Most perceived changes are in line with scientific studies, public discourse, and local concerns in the Arctic. What differs, however, is the degree of correspondence between local and scientific knowledge on certain phenomena: some dynamics are well documented in both local and scientific observations whereas other dynamics require more nuanced scientific research, particularly considering their relevance for local livelihoods. Among these are: berry yields, the abundance of mosquitoes and other Nematocera, peatland thaw and frost, and changes in river and lake ice conditions. It is noteworthy that in both Savukoski and Jokkmokk, for many people the most impactful changes are caused by resource extraction rather than climate change. Local concerns and perceptions of environmental change are not all shared nor easily translate into adaptation strategies, but nonetheless they have clear policy implications.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer Nature, 2024
Keywords
Adaptation, Arctic, Climate change, Knowledge integration, Local knowledge, Participatory mapping
National Category
Climate Science Environmental Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-225499 (URN)10.1007/s10113-024-02241-4 (DOI)001232330600002 ()2-s2.0-85194270730 (Scopus ID)
Funder
EU, Horizon 2020, 869471
Available from: 2024-06-10 Created: 2024-06-10 Last updated: 2025-02-01Bibliographically approved
Rasmus, S., Yletyinen, J., Sarkki, S., Landauer, M., Tuomi, M., Arneberg, M. K., . . . Eronen, J. T. (2024). Policy documents considering biodiversity, land use, and climate in the European Arctic reveal visible, hidden, and imagined nexus approaches. One Earth, 7(2), 265-279
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Policy documents considering biodiversity, land use, and climate in the European Arctic reveal visible, hidden, and imagined nexus approaches
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2024 (English)In: One Earth, ISSN 2590-3330, E-ISSN 2590-3322, Vol. 7, no 2, p. 265-279Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The Arctic is experiencing rapid and interlinked socio-environmental changes. Therefore, governance approaches that take the complex interactions between climate change, biodiversity loss, increasing land use pressures, and local livelihoods into account are needed: nexus approaches. However, an overview of whether and to what extent Arctic policies address these nexus elements in concert has been missing. Here we analyzed a large sample of publicly available assessment reports and policy documents from the terrestrial European Arctic. Our results show that, although nexus approaches are widely adopted in Arctic policy reporting, the emphasis varies among the governance levels, and documents underestimate certain interactions: local communities and traditional livelihoods are seldom seen as actors with agency and impact. Practical implementations were identified as potential advancements in Arctic governance: ecosystem-specific, technological, and authoritative solutions; co-production of knowledge; and adaptive co-management. Implementation of nexus approaches can promote more holistic environmental governance and guide cross-sectoral policies.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Cell Press, 2024
Keywords
Biodiversity, Climate change, European Arctic, Land use governance, Local communities, Nexus approach
National Category
Climate Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-219501 (URN)10.1016/j.oneear.2023.12.010 (DOI)001187960500001 ()2-s2.0-85181718039 (Scopus ID)
Funder
EU, Horizon 2020, 869471
Available from: 2024-01-24 Created: 2024-01-24 Last updated: 2025-02-07Bibliographically approved
Eggers, J., Holmgren, S., Lundström, J., Greiser, C., Wallin, I., Eckerberg, K., . . . Skarin, A. (2024). Sveriges skogsbruk är inte hållbart, ministern: 19 skogsforskare: regeringen ignorerar relevant vetenskaplig kunskap. Aftonbladet (2024-03-04)
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Sveriges skogsbruk är inte hållbart, ministern: 19 skogsforskare: regeringen ignorerar relevant vetenskaplig kunskap
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2024 (Swedish)In: Aftonbladet, ISSN 1103-9000, no 2024-03-04Article in journal, News item (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.)) Published
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: , 2024
Keywords
Skogspolitik, naturvård, biologisk mångfald, klimat
National Category
Forest Science Political Science Environmental Sciences
Research subject
political science; environmental science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-222402 (URN)
Note

Klimat- och miljöministern Romina Pourmokthari påstår att det svenska skogsbruket är hållbart. Det finns inte mycket som stöder påståendet. Som forskare undrar vi – vad ska vi ha forskning till om ledande politiker väljer att förlita sig på föråldrade och förenklade antaganden i stället för den kunskap som producerats för dem på landets universitet och expertmyndigheter? skriver debattörerna.

Available from: 2024-03-16 Created: 2024-03-16 Last updated: 2024-03-18Bibliographically approved
Horstkotte, T., Moen, J. & Löf, A. (2024). Understanding adaptation landscapes: mapping the complexity of decision­making in reindeer herding. Arctic Review on Law and Politics, 15, 202-230
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Understanding adaptation landscapes: mapping the complexity of decision­making in reindeer herding
2024 (English)In: Arctic Review on Law and Politics, ISSN 1891-6252, E-ISSN 2387-4562, Vol. 15, p. 202-230Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

A dynamic world requires people to constantly adapt their behavior and make decisions to main­tain or enhance relationships between each other and the environment. Where the combined effects of anthropogenic and environmental change affect the livelihoods of Indigenous people, their options to pursue preferred adaptation strategies are often restricted by competing land uses. In this context, we explore how Sámi reindeer herders in Northern Sweden navigate the complex­ity of decision-making on adaptation, specifically decisions regarding supplementary feeding when winter grazing resources are inaccessible. How are decisions made and where are they positioned on an adaptation-maladaptation continuum? In a participatory approach with two reindeer herd­ing communities, we use fuzzy cognitive mapping to explore the multi-dimensional complexity surrounding supplementary feeding. Our results emphasize the herders’ conviction that supple­mentary feeding is not a preferred adaptation strategy. It is rather a forced response driven by complex system dynamics that transform their pastoral landscape. To maintain the preferred tra­ditional herding practices, desired adaptation measures viewed from a herding perspective should thus center at the system level, such as halting the loss and restoring already lost grazing grounds. This would require meaningful recognition and demands inclusion of reindeer herders’ right to self-determination into adaptation policies to mitigate environmental change.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Cappelen Damm Akademisk, 2024
Keywords
Adaptation, fuzzy cognitive mapping, Indigenous knowledge, Maladaptation, reindeer husbandry, social-ecological networks, supplementary feeding
National Category
Environmental Sciences and Nature Conservation
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-236006 (URN)10.23865/ARCTIC.V15.6138 (DOI)2-s2.0-85216483538 (Scopus ID)
Funder
Nordic Council of Ministers, 76915Swedish Research Council Formas, 2017-01898
Available from: 2025-03-12 Created: 2025-03-12 Last updated: 2025-03-12Bibliographically approved
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