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Background: Development and evaluation of diagnostics for diseases of epidemic potential are often funded during epidemics, but not afterwards, leaving countries unprepared for the next epidemic. United Nations Children's Emergency Fund (UNICEF) partnered with the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) to address this important gap by investing in an advance purchase commitment (APC) mechanism to accelerate the development and evaluation of Zika rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) for case detection and surveillance. This paper describes the performance evaluation of five Zika RDTs eligible for procurement.

Methods: A network of European Union-funded ZikaPLAN sites in Africa, Asia, Latin America with access to relevant serum specimens were selected to evaluate RDTs developed for the UNICEF APC mechanism. A standardised protocol and evaluation panels were developed and a call for specimens for the evaluation panels issued to different sites. Each site contributed specimens to the evaluation from their biobank. Data were collated, analysed and presented to the UNICEF Procurement Review Group for review.

Findings: Three RDTs met the criteria for UNICEF procurement of sensitivity and specificity of 85% against a refence standard. The sensitivity/specificity of the ChemBio anti-Zika Virus (ZIKV) immunoglobulin M (IgM) test was 86.4 %/86.7% and the ChemBio ZCD system for anti-ZIKV IgM was 79.0%/97.1%, anti-dengue virus (DENV) IgM 90.0%/89.2%, anti-Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) IgM 90.6%/97.2%. The sensitivity/specificity of the SD Biosensor anti-ZIKV IgM was 96.8 %/90.8%, anti-DENV IgM 71.8%/83.5%, the DENV nonstructural protein 1 (NS1) glycoprotein 90.0%/90.2%, anti- yellow fever virus (YFV) IgM 84.6%/92.4%, anti-CHIKV IgM 86.3%/97.5%.

Interpretation: Three RDTs fulfilled the performance thresholds set by WHO and were eligible for UNICEF procurement. These tests will improve the diagnosis of ZIKV and other arboviral infections as well as providing countries with better tools for surveillance and response to future epidemics.

Dengue, a mosquito-borne viral infection that affects millions around the world, poses a substantial economic burden in endemic countries. We conducted a prospective costing study in hospitalized pediatric dengue patients at the Lady Ridgeway Hospital for Children (LRHC), a public pediatric hospital in Colombo district, Sri Lanka, to assess household out-of-pocket and hospitalization costs of dengue in pediatric patients during peak dengue transmission season. Between August and October 2013, we recruited 216 hospitalized patients (aged 0-3 years, 27%; 4-7 years, 29%; 8-12 years, 42%) who were clinically or laboratory diagnosed with dengue. Using 2013 US dollars, household outof-pocket spending, on average, was US$59 (SD 49) per episode and increased with disease severity (DF, US$52; DHF/ DSS, US$78). Pediatric dengue patients received free-of-charge medical care during hospitalization at LRHC, and this places a high financial burden on hospitals. The direct medical cost of hospitalization was US$68 (SD 31.4) for DF episode, and US$122.7 (SD 65.2) for DHF/DSS episode. Yet a hospitalized dengue illness episode still accounted for 20% to 35% of household monthly income due to direct and indirect costs. Additionally, a majority of caregivers (70%) sought outpatient care before hospitalization, most of whom (81%) visited private health facilities. Our findings indicate that hospitalized pediatric dengue illness poses a nontrivial cost burden to households and healthcare systems, emphasizing the importance of preventing and controlling the transmission of dengue in endemic countries.

Testing for detecting the infection by SARS-CoV-2 is the bridge between the lockdown and the opening of society. In this paper we modelled and simulated a test-trace-and-quarantine strategy to control the COVID-19 outbreak in the State of Sao Paulo, Brasil. The State of Sao Paulo failed to adopt an effective social distancing strategy, reaching at most 59% in late March and started to relax the measures in late June, dropping to 41% in 08 August. Therefore, Sao Paulo relies heavily on a massive testing strategy in the attempt to control the epidemic.

Two alternative strategies combined with economic evaluations were simulated. One strategy included indiscriminately testing the entire population of the State, reaching more than 40 million people at a maximum cost of 2.25 billion USD, that would reduce the total number of cases by the end of 2020 by 90%. The second strategy investigated testing only symptomatic cases and their immediate contacts - this strategy reached a maximum cost of 150 million USD but also reduced the number of cases by 90%. The conclusion is that if the State of Sao Paulo had decided to adopt the simulated strategy on April the 1st, it would have been possible to reduce the total number of cases by 90% at a cost of 2.25 billion US dollars for the indiscriminate strategy but at a much smaller cost of 125 million US dollars for the selective testing of symptomatic cases and their contacts. 

Global health research partnerships with institutions from high-income countries and low- and middle-income countries are one of the European Commission's flagship programmes. Here, we report on the ZikaPLAN research consortium funded by the European Commission with the primary goal of addressing the urgent knowledge gaps related to the Zika epidemic and the secondary goal of building up research capacity and establishing a Latin American-European research network for emerging vector-borne diseases. Five years of collaborative research effort have led to a better understanding of the full clinical spectrum of congenital Zika syndrome in children and the neurological complications of Zika virus infections in adults and helped explore the origins and trajectory of Zika virus transmission. Individual-level data from ZikaPLAN`s cohort studies were shared for joint analyses as part of the Zika Brazilian Cohorts Consortium, the European Commission-funded Zika Cohorts Vertical Transmission Study Group, and the World Health Organization-led Zika Virus Individual Participant Data Consortium. Furthermore, the legacy of ZikaPLAN includes new tools for birth defect surveillance and a Latin American birth defect surveillance network, an enhanced Guillain-Barre Syndrome research collaboration, a de-centralized evaluation platform for diagnostic assays, a global vector control hub, and the REDe network with freely available training resources to enhance global research capacity in vector-borne diseases.

BackgroundEarly detection of Zika virus (ZIKV) infection during the viremia and viruria facilitates proper patient management and mosquito control measurement to prevent disease spread. Therefore, a cost-effective nucleic acid detection method for the diagnosis of ZIKV infection, especially in resource-deficient settings, is highly required.MethodsIn the present study, a single-tube reverse transcription loop-mediated isothermal amplification (RT-LAMP) assay was developed for the detection of both the Asian and African-lineage ZIKV. The detection limit, strain coverage and cross-reactivity of the ZIKV RT-LAMP assay was evaluated. The sensitivity and specificity of the RT-LAMP were also evaluated using a total of 24 simulated clinical samples. The ZIKV quantitative reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) assay was used as the reference assay.ResultsThe detection limit of the RT-LAMP assay was 3.73 ZIKV RNA copies (probit analysis, P <= 0.05). The RT-LAMP assay detected the ZIKV genomes of both the Asian and African lineages without cross-reacting with other arthropod-borne viruses. The sensitivity and specificity of the RT-LAMP assay were 90% (95% CI=59.6-98.2) and 100% (95% CI=78.5-100.0), respectively. The RT-LAMP assay detected ZIKV genome in 9 of 24 (37.5%) of the simulated clinical samples compared to 10 of 24 (41.7%) by qRT-PCR assay with a high level of concordance (kappa =0.913, P<0.001).ConclusionThe RT-LAMP assay is applicable for the broad coverage detection of both the Asian and African ZIKV strains in resource-deficient settings.

BACKGROUND: While the COVID-19 outbreak in China now appears suppressed, Europe and the USA have become the epicentres, both reporting many more deaths than China. Responding to the pandemic, Sweden has taken a different approach aiming to mitigate, not suppress, community transmission, by using physical distancing without lockdowns. Here we contrast the consequences of different responses to COVID-19 within Sweden, the resulting demand for care, intensive care, the death tolls and the associated direct healthcare related costs.

METHODS: We used an age-stratified health-care demand extended SEIR (susceptible, exposed, infectious, recovered) compartmental model for all municipalities in Sweden, and a radiation model for describing inter-municipality mobility. The model was calibrated against data from municipalities in the Stockholm healthcare region.

RESULTS: Our scenario with moderate to strong physical distancing describes well the observed health demand and deaths in Sweden up to the end of May 2020. In this scenario, the intensive care unit (ICU) demand reaches the pre-pandemic maximum capacity just above 500 beds. In the counterfactual scenario, the ICU demand is estimated to reach ∼20 times higher than the pre-pandemic ICU capacity. The different scenarios show quite different death tolls up to 1 September, ranging from 5000 to 41 000, excluding deaths potentially caused by ICU shortage. Additionally, our statistical analysis of all causes excess mortality indicates that the number of deaths attributable to COVID-19 could be increased by 40% (95% confidence interval: 0.24, 0.57).

CONCLUSION: The results of this study highlight the impact of different combinations of non-pharmaceutical interventions, especially moderate physical distancing in combination with more effective isolation of infectious individuals, on reducing deaths, health demands and lowering healthcare costs. In less effective mitigation scenarios, the demand on ICU beds would rapidly exceed capacity, showing the tight interconnection between the healthcare demand and physical distancing in the society. These findings have relevance for Swedish policy and response to the COVID-19 pandemic and illustrate the importance of maintaining the level of physical distancing for a longer period beyond the study period to suppress or mitigate the impacts from the pandemic.

BACKGROUND: Cruise ships carry a large number of people in confined spaces with relative homogeneous mixing. On 3 February, 2020, an outbreak of COVID-19 on cruise ship Diamond Princess was reported with 10 initial cases, following an index case on board around 21-25 January. By 4 February, public health measures such as removal and isolation of ill passengers and quarantine of non-ill passengers were implemented. By 20 February, 619 of 3,700 passengers and crew (17%) were tested positive.

METHODS: We estimated the basic reproduction number from the initial period of the outbreak using (SEIR) models. We calibrated the models with transient functions of countermeasures to incidence data. We additionally estimated a counterfactual scenario in absence of countermeasures, and established a model stratified by crew and guests to study the impact of differential contact rates among the groups. We also compared scenarios of an earlier versus later evacuation of the ship.

RESULTS: The basic reproduction rate was initially 4 times higher on-board compared to the ${R}_0$ in the epicentre in Wuhan, but the countermeasures lowered it substantially. Based on the modeled initial ${R}_0$ of 14.8, we estimated that without any interventions within the time period of 21 January to 19 February, 2920 out of the 3700 (79%) would have been infected. Isolation and quarantine therefore prevented 2307 cases, and lowered the ${R}_0$ to 1.78. We showed that an early evacuation of all passengers on 3 February would have been associated with 76 infected persons in their incubation time.

CONCLUSIONS: The cruise ship conditions clearly amplified an already highly transmissible disease. The public health measures prevented more than 2000 additional cases compared to no interventions. However, evacuating all passengers and crew early on in the outbreak would have prevented many more passengers and crew from infection.

Several Italian towns are under lockdown to contain the COVID-19 outbreak. The level of transmission reduction required for physical distancing interventions to mitigate the epidemic is a crucial question. We show that very high adherence to community quarantine (total stay-home policy) and a small household size is necessary for curbing the outbreak in a locked-down town. The larger the household size and amount of time in the public, the longer the lockdown period needed.