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2021 (English)In: BMC Infectious Diseases, E-ISSN 1471-2334, Vol. 21, no 1, article id 650Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]
BACKGROUND: Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a common illness in young children. A monovalent vaccine has been developed in China protecting against enterovirus-71, bivalent vaccines preventing HFMD caused by two viruses are under development.
OBJECTIVE: To predict and compare the incidence of HFMD under different vaccination scenarios in China.
METHODS: We developed a compartmental model to capture enterovirus transmission and the natural history of HFMD in children aged 0-5, and calibrated to reported cases in the same age-group from 2015 to 2018. We compared the following vaccination scenarios: different combinations of monovalent and bivalent vaccine; a program of constant vaccination to that of pulse vaccination prior to seasonal outbreaks.
RESULTS: We estimate 1,982,819, 2,258,846, 1,948,522 and 2,398,566 cases from 2015 to 2018. Increased coverage of monovalent vaccine from 0 to 80% is predicted to decrease the cases by 797,262 (49.1%). Use of bivalent vaccine at an 80% coverage level would decrease the cases by 828,560. Use of a 2.0× pulse vaccination for the bivalent vaccine in addition to 80% coverage would reduce cases by over one million. The estimated R0 for HFMD in 2015-2018 was 1.08, 1.10, 1.35 and 1.17.
CONCLUSIONS: Our results point to the benefit of bivalent vaccine and using a pulse vaccination in specific months over routine vaccination. Other ways to control HFMD include isolation of patients in the early stage of dissemination, more frequent hand-washing and ventilation, and better treatment options for patients.
Keywords
Basic reproductive number, Hand, foot and mouth disease, Pulse vaccination, SEIR model, Vaccine
National Category
Infectious Medicine
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-186468 (URN)10.1186/s12879-021-06157-w (DOI)000672471800008 ()34225650 (PubMedID)2-s2.0-85110955627 (Scopus ID)
2021-08-032021-08-032024-01-17Bibliographically approved