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A key challenge in cartel enforcement is identifying collusive agreements. We study two major Nordic procurement cartels that operated in the asphalt paving market. We find evidence that during the cartel period bids were clustered and the winning bid was isolated. We implement two cartel detection methods that exploit variation in the distribution of bids. The method developed by Clark et al. (forthcoming) correctly rejects competitive bidding for the cartel period in both markets. The method suggested by Huber and Imhof (2019) achieves a high prediction rate in one of the markets but not in the market where the cartel had a more modest impact on bid distribution. Our results suggest that statistical screening methods with low data requirements can be useful for competition authorities in detecting collusive agreements.

The three closely related COVID-19 outcomes of incidence, intensive care (IC) admission and death, are commonly modelled separately leading to biased estimation of the parameters and relatively poor forecasts. This paper presents a joint spatiotemporal model of the three outcomes based on weekly data that is used for risk prediction and identification of hotspots. The paper applies a pure spatiotemporal model consisting of structured and unstructured spatial and temporal effects and their interaction capturing the effects of the unobserved covariates. The pure spatiotemporal model limits the data requirements to the three outcomes and the population at risk per spatiotemporal unit. The empirical study for the 21 Swedish regions for the period 1 January 2020–4 May 2021 confirms that the joint model predictions outperform the separate model predictions. The fifteen-week-ahead spatiotemporal forecasts (5 May–11 August 2021) show a significant decline in the relative risk of COVID-19 incidence, IC admission, death and number of hotspots.

This research note contains an update of the research program “A promised land? Drivers, challenges and opportunities related to the (green) industrialization of Northern Sweden,” (nr. M22-0029) awarded by the Swedish Riksbankens Jubileumsfond’s in 2022. The document summarizes work in progress and is updated annually in different versions according to the requirements of the program. 

This interdisciplinary program aims to understand the economic, social, and political challenges and opportunities of the ongoing industrial transformation in northern Sweden. A key element of the program is to identify drivers, obstacles, and preconditions in a historical, present, and forward-looking process-perspective. 

Recent large investments in northern Sweden connected to the green transition – primarily within mining and manufacturing (fossil-free steel, batteries) – have led to substantial increases in local demand for labour. In a territory with low unemployment and a decreasing labour supply due to ageing and a history of net outmigration, there is a substantial risk that this increased labour demand will, particularly in the short term, draw at least to some extent from the public sector.

Against this backdrop, the chapter examines the dynamic effects of employment expansion in the mining and manufacturing industries on public sector employment in northern Sweden during the period 1990–2019. It also analyses which factors affect the probability of a worker leaving the public sector for a job in manufacturing or mining.

Our results suggest that the expansion of manufacturing and, in particular, mining has a negative short-term effect on public sector employment. The largest effect is attributable to poaching from public administration, with education and health less affected. Assuming a linear trend based on previous labour market interdependencies, a three standard deviation increase in mining (about 2,700 new jobs) and manufacturing (about 10,800 new jobs) could potentially lead to 8% of the current public administration workforce being poached. The results also indicate that younger individuals, low- and high-income earners, and those highly educated in the social or technical sciences are the most likely to leave the public sector. In the longer perspective, these vacancies go on to be filled by skilled but inexperienced workers.

A number of policy implications arise from the above findings. First, given the regional dimension of job mobility, policy-makers should consider how large investments influence the other parts of a regional economy, rather than simply attending to the immediate demands of focal industries. Second, while the poaching of public sector employees will inevitably occur, the functioning of the public sector also hinges on the supply of workers entering the labour market. There is therefore a pressing need to bolster the status of key public sector jobs and improve working conditions, thereby ensuring they are regarded as viable career opportunities when mining and manufacturing expands. The public sector should also ensure that it is in a position to attract and retain workers crowded out of the mining and manufacturing in the event of future rationalisation. Third, general policy interventions may not serve local needs, especially the spatial mismatch of available jobs and supply of workers. Support for relocation tailored to local demands is therefore crucial.

This paper studies the effect of Green Public Procurement (GPP) on competition, bids, and winning bids under two different regulation periods where the latter include more explicitly expressed GPP ambitions. Based on detailed data from Swedish internal cleaning service procurements, our results imply that environmental considerations might not influence the bids as required for GPP to be considered an effective environmental policy instrument. Over time, lower degree of competition and increased bids are found. This phenomenon can be attributed, at least in part, to regulatory influences, signifying an escalating complexity in the process of submitting bids.

In recent years, Skellefteå has had significant population growth linked to the establishment of Northvolt. Between 2020 and 2023, the population growth in Skellefteå was 4.6 percent, which should be compared with an average population growth of 1.7 percent in Sweden. The main purpose of the report has been to describe how the labor market in Skellefteå has changed after 2017. 

The population growth can largely be explained by a sharp increase in immigration. For many years, the municipality has indeed had a positive net migration which, however, has not been able to compensate for the aging population. Therefore, the population has remained at stable levels until 2017. The strong immigration in recent years is mainly made up of men aged 25 to 64. In general, the proportion of men in the age range 15 to 64 is increasing, while the number of women aged 15 to 24 is decreasing, which may pose a future challenge connected to how to break the negative nativity trend. Even before 2017, Skellefteå had a high proportion of men, and the reduction in the number of women aged 15 to 24 may in the long run lead to a further distortion of the gender balance. A large part of the immigrants has for a long time consisted of people from the immediate area (mainly Umeå, but also smaller municipalities). This trend continues after 2017, when the number of migrants from Umeå increased even further. A significant part of the immigrants are also primarily men, but also women, from other countries. This too can pose a future challenge if they are not integrated into society.

Those who move to Skellefteå often get jobs that only require shorter training or introduction. This has increased since the establishment of Northvolt regardless of education level. At the same time, the degree of job changes is high among these immigrants, which indicates that these occupations are entry-level occupations. We also see that emigration has also increased in recent years, and this mainly concerns women aged 15–24. While immigrants mainly come from the surrounding municipalities, young Skellefteå residents move to university towns and the larger cities. In addition to the migration patterns, the commuting patterns have also changed somewhat over time. Commuters to Skellefteå mainly come from Umeå, and this has increased after 2017, followed by Stockholm (which, however, is less than half the number compared to those from Umeå) closely followed by Piteå, Luleå, Norsjö and Robertsfors. Apart from Umeå and to some extent Luleå, the number of individuals for all municipalities to commute from has decreased after 2017, while commuting from Skellefteå also has generally increased. Here too, Umeå is the most common place of work, followed by the neighboring municipalities.

The proportion of employees in professions that require a longer university or college education is increasing in Skellefteå, which in itself is a positive development as it generally reduces sensitivity to future structural changes. On the other hand, the percentage who get a job immediately after graduation is decreasing, even among those with a longer university or college education. This applies both to those already living in Skellefteå, but above all to immigrants who, to an increasingly lesser extent, start working in professions that require a university degree. This may be due to a matching problem between the applicants and the employers. But it may also be due to a change in search behavior among job seekers, where new graduates immediately after graduation first apply for a simpler profession and then for more qualified professions. It may also be due to higher requirements for work experience among employers. As the large majority of immigrants with university qualifications remain within this occupational group, it indicates a growing matching problem driven by over-education as the labour market segments experiencing employment growth do not require university education.

A high school diploma (gymnasium) is the most common highest level of education in Skellefteå. At the same time, the number of employees in professions that require a shorter education or introduction is decreasing. The fact that the number of people employed decreases in professions that require a shorter education or introduction need not be a negative thing given that it does not lead to increased unemployment. It can even be a positive development if it leads to more people being employed with more advanced tasks. On the other hand, it can lead to increased unemployment among individuals with a shorter education, a group that has more difficulty adapting to changed conditions on the labor market. Given such a development, it may become necessary to carry out continuing education efforts for that group. A certain increase in the workforce that has not completed upper secondary education can be seen in recent years and is also a trend that should be actively countered.

Incomes in Skellefteå have risen since 2017, especially men's incomes. Immigrants to Skellefteå generally have lower wages compared to the population as a whole. This is probably due to the fact that the immigrants work to a greater extent in occupations that require shorter training or introduction. The move-in together with generally higher wages and limited construction has had a positive effect on housing prices. Higher housing prices should lead to increased construction in the municipality, but this can be dampened by a higher cost situation (wages, building materials, interest, etc.) in the construction sector. Limited housing construction leads to a redistribution of income from wage earners to property owners. Those who move into Skellefteå live to a greater extent in tenements and condominiums compared to the average Skellefteå resident. Immigrants settle to a large extent in the central parts of Skellefteå. Again, this does not have to be negative as it often takes time for a new mover to get to know a new city and it can take time to find longer-term accommodation. Given that the moving surplus also consists of many young men, centrally located apartments are more suitable for this group compared to detached houses for families with children. The limited mobility on the housing market can be another reason why immigrants end up in certain areas and in certain types of housing to a large extent. It is possible to make some comparisons with the labor market, where a simpler job can be an entry-level job while you are looking for a longer-term job. 

This document lays out the background for the research program “A promised land? Drivers, challenges and opportunities related to the (green) industrialization of Northern Sweden,” (nr. M22-0029) awarded by the Swedish Riksbankens Jubileumsfond’s in 2022. The document summarizes work in progress and may therefore be updated and republished in different versions according to the requirements of the program. 

This interdisciplinary program aims to understand the economic, social, and political challenges and opportunities of the ongoing industrial transformation in northern Sweden. A key element of the program is to identify drivers, obstacles, and preconditions in a historical, present, and forward-looking process-perspective. 

This article examines the impact of establishing a large industrial manufacturing entity on employment and the labor market in a remote, sparsely populated part of Sweden, focusing on how it affects total regional employment because industrial policies aiming to attract investment and reignite employment in stagnating regions have been a central policy tool. The empirical analysis is based on the synthetic control method, which enables the estimation of place-specific causal effects. Using aggregated microdata from 1995 to 2019, the results indicate that employment in the treated region, as compared to synthetic regions, has been negatively affected by the manufacturing establishment. However, the short- and long-term effects differ across different labor market segments (same, related, and unrelated industries) and according to firm size. Overall, the findings suggest that large manufacturing investment does not necessarily have a positive or instantaneous impact on total regional employment. It does, however, provide some potential for long-term diversification because employment in related activities grows in the long run.

Föreliggande rapport har analyserat flyttmönster för examinerade studenter vid Umeå universitet. Detta har gjorts med hjälp av longitudinella mikrodata från Statistiska Centralbyrån för att kunna beskriva en längre del av flyttkedjan och i detalj belysa både ursprungsregion och destination för examinerade studenter.

Jämfört med den tidigare analysen för 2013 (Eklund med fler 2019) visar våra resultat att Umeå bland de större utbildningsorterna fortsatt sticker ut i negativ bemärkelse i avseende hur många som stannar kvar i regionen efter examen. En del av detta är naturligtvis drivet av ett minskat utbud av regionalt förankrade studenter och en större andel som flyttar hit för att studera. Kategorin hemvändare som återvänder till sin hemregion efter avklarade studier är därför hög, men även om andelen inflyttare till Umeå från övriga landet ökat över tid, utgör detta inte hela svaret. I jämförelse med landets övriga universitetsregioner har Umeå den tredje lägsta andel studenter från regionen som väljer att stanna kvar efter avslutade studier. Här bör det dock betonas att antalet stannare har ökat sedan 2013 trots en fortsatt generell låg andel som stannar kvar i regionen. Det är också färre lokala studenter (sena migranter) som väljer att lämna över tid. Med andra ord ser vi nu vissa tecken på en ökad regional etableringsgrad. Få skillnader mellan män och kvinnor kan ses i resultaten men om något verkar det som att ett växande antal inflyttade män stannar kvar i Umeåregionen efter examen samtidigt som något färre kvinnor från Umeå flyttar efter examen. Generellt sett sker det största tappet av lokala studenter till Stockholm, vilket kanske inte är så oväntat givet storleken och diversiteten i Stockholms arbetsmarknad. Dock har antalet migranter till Stockholm minskat något och närliggande kommuner som Luleå, Skellefteå, Sundsvall och Örnsköldsvik är i princip lika vanliga destinationer som Göteborg och Malmö. För de som flyttar till Umeå och väljer att stanna kommer majoriteten från regioner i norra Sverige samt från Stockholm. Denna kategori migranter har ökat något över tid och det är främst kopplat till att fler från Stockholm, Luleå och Skellefteå stannar i Umeå efter examen. Av de 20 största utbildningarna vid Umeå universitet varierar andelen studenter som stannar i Umeå mellan 93% och 42%. Här har viss förändring skett över tid och exempelvis har stannandegraden ökat med 11 procentenheter för förskolepersonal vilken kan tyda på en ökad lokal efterfrågan. Den höga andelen flyttare bland de största utbildningarna är tydligt kopplat till ett nationellt uppdrag för Umeå universitet. Om syftet är att behålla fler studenter kan specifika insatser riktas, samtidigt som det också går att se på detta som en ”ren” exportprodukt där Umeå attraherar unga som både berikar lokaltnäringsliv och skapar arbetstillfällen vid universitetet medan de studerar men som sedan flyttar till andra orter.   

Vi ser också att studenter från regionen som har studerat 4–5 år (avancerad nivå) är mer benägna att flytta än lokala studenter som läst 2–3 år (grundnivå). Umeå har alltså extra svårt att hålla kvar högre utbildade. Detta kan utgöra en potentiell ”brain drain” för regionen om Umeå å ena sidan har svårt att behålla den högre andel studenter från andra regioner, men också har svårt att behålla studenter från Umeå som läser en längre utbildning. Oavsett om man väljer det perspektivet eller se det som en ”ren” exportvara bör hela norra Sverige vinna på en ökad diversifiering av arbetsmarknaden så avancerade arbeten inom olika ämnesområden kan erbjudas (både teknik och data, men också samhällsvetenskap och humaniora). Elekes & Eriksson (2021) visar exempelvis att samhällsvetenskaplig och humanistisk FoU är underrepresenterat i Västerbotten givet den befintliga näringslivsstrukturen. Rekommendationen är därför att försöka få dessa typer av verksamheter att växa i regionen då det kan öka antalet som stannar kvar i regionen.