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Semenza, Jan C.
Publications (8 of 8) Show all publications
Semenza, J. C. (2024). Climate change and contagion: the circuitous impacts from infectious diseases. Journal of Infectious Diseases, 229(4), 928-930
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Climate change and contagion: the circuitous impacts from infectious diseases
2024 (English)In: Journal of Infectious Diseases, ISSN 0022-1899, E-ISSN 1537-6613, Vol. 229, no 4, p. 928-930Article in journal, Editorial material (Refereed) Published
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Oxford University Press, 2024
National Category
Infectious Medicine Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology Climate Research
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-223650 (URN)10.1093/infdis/jiad571 (DOI)001185156800001 ()38488102 (PubMedID)2-s2.0-85190539273 (Scopus ID)
Funder
EU, Horizon Europe, 101057554EU, Horizon Europe, 101060568
Available from: 2024-04-23 Created: 2024-04-23 Last updated: 2024-04-23Bibliographically approved
Lim, A.-Y., Jafari, Y., Caldwell, J. M., Clapham, H. E., Gaythorpe, K. A. M., Hussain-Alkhateeb, L., . . . Brady, O. J. (2023). A systematic review of the data, methods and environmental covariates used to map Aedes-borne arbovirus transmission risk. BMC Infectious Diseases, 23(1), Article ID 708.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>A systematic review of the data, methods and environmental covariates used to map Aedes-borne arbovirus transmission risk
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2023 (English)In: BMC Infectious Diseases, E-ISSN 1471-2334, Vol. 23, no 1, article id 708Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Background: Aedes (Stegomyia)-borne diseases are an expanding global threat, but gaps in surveillance make comprehensive and comparable risk assessments challenging. Geostatistical models combine data from multiple locations and use links with environmental and socioeconomic factors to make predictive risk maps. Here we systematically review past approaches to map risk for different Aedes-borne arboviruses from local to global scales, identifying differences and similarities in the data types, covariates, and modelling approaches used.

Methods: We searched on-line databases for predictive risk mapping studies for dengue, Zika, chikungunya, and yellow fever with no geographical or date restrictions. We included studies that needed to parameterise or fit their model to real-world epidemiological data and make predictions to new spatial locations of some measure of population-level risk of viral transmission (e.g. incidence, occurrence, suitability, etc.).

Results: We found a growing number of arbovirus risk mapping studies across all endemic regions and arboviral diseases, with a total of 176 papers published 2002–2022 with the largest increases shortly following major epidemics. Three dominant use cases emerged: (i) global maps to identify limits of transmission, estimate burden and assess impacts of future global change, (ii) regional models used to predict the spread of major epidemics between countries and (iii) national and sub-national models that use local datasets to better understand transmission dynamics to improve outbreak detection and response. Temperature and rainfall were the most popular choice of covariates (included in 50% and 40% of studies respectively) but variables such as human mobility are increasingly being included. Surprisingly, few studies (22%, 31/144) robustly tested combinations of covariates from different domains (e.g. climatic, sociodemographic, ecological, etc.) and only 49% of studies assessed predictive performance via out-of-sample validation procedures.

Conclusions: Here we show that approaches to map risk for different arboviruses have diversified in response to changing use cases, epidemiology and data availability. We identify key differences in mapping approaches between different arboviral diseases, discuss future research needs and outline specific recommendations for future arbovirus mapping.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
BioMed Central (BMC), 2023
Keywords
Aedes-borne diseases, Arboviruses, Chikungunya, Dengue, Geostatistical models, Predictive modelling, Risk mapping, Yellow fever, Zika
National Category
Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology Infectious Medicine
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-215916 (URN)10.1186/s12879-023-08717-8 (DOI)2-s2.0-85174503799 (Scopus ID)
Funder
NIH (National Institutes of Health), R35GM133439; R01AI168097; R01AI102918EU, Horizon Europe, 101057554Wellcome trust, 220211
Available from: 2023-11-02 Created: 2023-11-02 Last updated: 2024-01-17Bibliographically approved
Rocklöv, J., Semenza, J. C., Dasgupta, S., Robinson, E. J. .., Abd El Wahed, A., Alcayna, T., . . . Farooq, Z. (2023). Decision-support tools to build climate resilience against emerging infectious diseases in Europe and beyond. The Lancet Regional Health: Europe, 32, Article ID 100701.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Decision-support tools to build climate resilience against emerging infectious diseases in Europe and beyond
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2023 (English)In: The Lancet Regional Health: Europe, E-ISSN 2666-7762, Vol. 32, article id 100701Article, review/survey (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Climate change is one of several drivers of recurrent outbreaks and geographical range expansion of infectious diseases in Europe. We propose a framework for the co-production of policy-relevant indicators and decision-support tools that track past, present, and future climate-induced disease risks across hazard, exposure, and vulnerability domains at the animal, human, and environmental interface. This entails the co-development of early warning and response systems and tools to assess the costs and benefits of climate change adaptation and mitigation measures across sectors, to increase health system resilience at regional and local levels and reveal novel policy entry points and opportunities. Our approach involves multi-level engagement, innovative methodologies, and novel data streams. We take advantage of intelligence generated locally and empirically to quantify effects in areas experiencing rapid urban transformation and heterogeneous climate-induced disease threats. Our goal is to reduce the knowledge-to-action gap by developing an integrated One Health—Climate Risk framework.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2023
Keywords
Adaptation, Climate change, Climate policy, Co-production, Human health, Infectious disease, Mitigation, One Health, Planetary health
National Category
Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology Climate Research
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-214534 (URN)10.1016/j.lanepe.2023.100701 (DOI)37583927 (PubMedID)2-s2.0-85170215685 (Scopus ID)
Funder
EU, Horizon Europe, 101057554
Note

Contributor: IDAlert Consortium.

Available from: 2023-09-21 Created: 2023-09-21 Last updated: 2024-04-22Bibliographically approved
Farooq, Z., Sjödin, H., Semenza, J. C., Tozan, Y., Sewe, M. O., Wallin, J. & Rocklöv, J. (2023). European projections of West Nile virus transmission under climate change scenarios. One Health, 16, Article ID 100509.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>European projections of West Nile virus transmission under climate change scenarios
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2023 (English)In: One Health, ISSN 2352-7714, Vol. 16, article id 100509Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

West Nile virus (WNV), a mosquito-borne zoonosis, has emerged as a disease of public health concern in Europe. Recent outbreaks have been attributed to suitable climatic conditions for its vectors favoring transmission. However, to date, projections of the risk for WNV expansion under climate change scenarios is lacking. Here, we estimate the WNV-outbreaks risk for a set of climate change and socioeconomic scenarios. We delineate the potential risk-areas and estimate the growth in the population at risk (PAR). We used supervised machine learning classifier, XGBoost, to estimate the WNV-outbreak risk using an ensemble climate model and multi-scenario approach. The model was trained by collating climatic, socioeconomic, and reported WNV-infections data (2010−22) and the out-of-sample results (1950–2009, 2023–99) were validated using a novel Confidence-Based Performance Estimation (CBPE) method. Projections of area specific outbreak risk trends, and corresponding population at risk were estimated and compared across scenarios. Our results show up to 5-fold increase in West Nile virus (WNV) risk for 2040-60 in Europe, depending on geographical region and climate scenario, compared to 2000-20. The proportion of disease-reported European land areas could increase from 15% to 23-30%, putting 161 to 244 million people at risk. Across scenarios, Western Europe appears to be facing the largest increase in the outbreak risk of WNV. The increase in the risk is not linear but undergoes periods of sharp changes governed by climatic thresholds associated with ideal conditions for WNV vectors. The increased risk will require a targeted public health response to manage the expansion of WNV with climate change in Europe.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2023
Keywords
Artificial intelligence, Climate change, Climate impacts, Confidence-based performance estimation (CBPE) method, Europe, West Nile virus, WNV risk projections, XGBoost, Zoonoses
National Category
Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-205369 (URN)10.1016/j.onehlt.2023.100509 (DOI)001004031000001 ()2-s2.0-85148667157 (Scopus ID)
Funder
Vinnova, 2020-03367Swedish Research Council Formas, 2018-01754European Commission, 101057554
Available from: 2023-03-29 Created: 2023-03-29 Last updated: 2024-05-02Bibliographically approved
Romanello, M., Napoli, C. d., Green, C., Kennard, H., Lampard, P., Scamman, D., . . . Costello, A. (2023). The 2023 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: the imperative for a health-centred response in a world facing irreversible harms. The Lancet, 402(10419), 2346-2394
Open this publication in new window or tab >>The 2023 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: the imperative for a health-centred response in a world facing irreversible harms
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2023 (English)In: The Lancet, ISSN 0140-6736, E-ISSN 1474-547X, Vol. 402, no 10419, p. 2346-2394Article, review/survey (Refereed) Published
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2023
National Category
Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-217013 (URN)10.1016/S0140-6736(23)01859-7 (DOI)37977174 (PubMedID)2-s2.0-85176578543 (Scopus ID)
Funder
Wellcome trust, 209734/Z/17/Z
Available from: 2023-11-24 Created: 2023-11-24 Last updated: 2024-01-08Bibliographically approved
Semenza, J. C. & Ko, A. I. (2023). Waterborne diseases that are sensitive to climate variability and climate change. New England Journal of Medicine, 389(23), 2175-2187
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Waterborne diseases that are sensitive to climate variability and climate change
2023 (English)In: New England Journal of Medicine, ISSN 0028-4793, E-ISSN 1533-4406, Vol. 389, no 23, p. 2175-2187Article, review/survey (Refereed) Published
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Massachusetts Medical Society, 2023
National Category
General Practice Climate Research
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-218029 (URN)10.1056/NEJMra2300794 (DOI)38055254 (PubMedID)2-s2.0-85178850727 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2023-12-15 Created: 2023-12-15 Last updated: 2023-12-15Bibliographically approved
Romanello, M., van Daalen, K., Anto, J. M., Dasandi, N., Drummond, P., Hamilton, I. G., . . . Nilsson, M. (2021). Tracking progress on health and climate change in Europe. The Lancet Public Health, 6(11), e858-e865
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Tracking progress on health and climate change in Europe
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2021 (English)In: The Lancet Public Health, ISSN 2468-2667, Vol. 6, no 11, p. e858-e865Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Left unabated, climate change will have catastrophic effects on the health of present and future generations. Such effects are already seen in Europe, through more frequent and severe extreme weather events, alterations to water and food systems, and changes in the environmental suitability for infectious diseases. As one of the largest current and historical contributors to greenhouse gases and the largest provider of financing for climate change mitigation and adaptation, Europe's response is crucial, for both human health and the planet. To ensure that health and wellbeing are protected in this response it is essential to build the capacity to understand, monitor, and quantify health impacts of climate change and the health co-benefits of accelerated action. Responding to this need, the Lancet Countdown in Europe is established as a transdisciplinary research collaboration for monitoring progress on health and climate change in Europe. With the wealth of data and academic expertise available in Europe, the collaboration will develop region-specific indicators to address the main challenges and opportunities of Europe's response to climate change for health. The indicators produced by the collaboration will provide information to health and climate policy decision making, and will also contribute to the European Observatory on Climate and Health.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2021
National Category
Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-187922 (URN)10.1016/S2468-2667(21)00207-3 (DOI)000714901800016 ()34562381 (PubMedID)2-s2.0-85118121873 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2021-09-27 Created: 2021-09-27 Last updated: 2023-09-05Bibliographically approved
Farooq, Z., Semenza, J. C., Rocklöv, J., Singh, P. & Sjödin, H.Assessing transcontinental threats of dengue outbreaks using human mobility and climatic suitability.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Assessing transcontinental threats of dengue outbreaks using human mobility and climatic suitability
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(English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
National Category
Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology
Research subject
Epidemiology; Public health; Infectious Diseases
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-223586 (URN)
Available from: 2024-04-20 Created: 2024-04-20 Last updated: 2024-05-03
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