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Nowcasting COVID-19 statistics reported with delay: A case-study of Sweden and the UK
Swedish Institute for Social Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden; Department of Finance, Stockholm School of Economics, Stockholm, Sweden.
Umeå University, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Section of Sustainable Health. Heidelberg Institute of Global Health (HIGH), Interdisciplinary Centre for Scientific Computing (IWR), Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-4030-0449
Department of Statistics, Lund University, Lund, Sweden.
2023 (English)In: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, ISSN 1661-7827, E-ISSN 1660-4601, Vol. 20, no 4Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated the importance of unbiased, real-time statistics of trends in disease events in order to achieve an effective response. Because of reporting delays, real-time statistics frequently underestimate the total number of infections, hospitalizations and deaths. When studied by event date, such delays also risk creating an illusion of a downward trend. Here, we describe a statistical methodology for predicting true daily quantities and their uncertainty, estimated using historical reporting delays. The methodology takes into account the observed distribution pattern of the lag. It is derived from the "removal method"-a well-established estimation framework in the field of ecology.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
MDPI, 2023. Vol. 20, no 4
Keywords [en]
COVID-19, nowcasting, prediction
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics Public Health, Global Health and Social Medicine
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-205494DOI: 10.3390/ijerph20043040PubMedID: 36833733Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85148964982OAI: oai:DiVA.org:umu-205494DiVA, id: diva2:1743209
Available from: 2023-03-14 Created: 2023-03-14 Last updated: 2025-02-20Bibliographically approved

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Rocklöv, Joacim

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Output format
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