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Investigating Winter Temperatures in Sweden and Norway: Potential Relationships with Climatic Indices and Effects on Electrical Power and Energy Systems
Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Applied Physics and Electronics.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-8660-5569
Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences.
Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, University of Maribor, Maribor, Slovenia.
Department of Energy, Politecnico di Milano, Via Lambruschini 4, Milano, Italy.
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2023 (English)In: Energies, E-ISSN 1996-1073, Vol. 16, no 14, article id 5575Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This paper presents a comprehensive study of winter temperatures in Norway and northern Sweden, covering a period of 50 to 70 years. The analysis utilizes Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) to investigate temperature trends at six selected locations. The results demonstrate an overall long-term rise in temperatures, which can be attributed to global warming. However, when investigating variations in highest, lowest, and average temperatures for December, January, and February, 50% of the cases exhibit a significant decrease in recent years, indicating colder winters, especially in December. The study also explores the variations in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) variations as a crucial climate factor over the last 15 years, estimating a possible 20% decrease/slowdown within the first half of the 21st century. Subsequently, the study investigates potential similarities between winter AMOC and winter temperatures in the mid to high latitudes over the chosen locations. Additionally, the study examines another important climatic index, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and explores possible similarities between the winter NAO index and winter temperatures. The findings reveal a moderate observed lagged correlation for AMOC-smoothed temperatures, particularly in December, along the coastal areas of Norway. Conversely, a stronger lagged correlation is observed between the winter NAO index and temperatures in northwest Sweden and coastal areas of Norway. Thus, NAO may influence both AMOC and winter temperatures (NAO drives both AMOC and temperatures). Furthermore, the paper investigates the impact of colder winters, whether caused by AMOC, NAO, or other factors like winds or sea ice changes, on electrical power and energy systems, highlighting potential challenges such as reduced electricity generation, increased electricity consumption, and the vulnerability of power grids to winter storms. The study concludes by emphasizing the importance of enhancing the knowledge of electrical engineering researchers regarding important climate indices, AMOC and NAO, the possible associations between them and winter temperatures, and addressing the challenges posed by the likelihood of colder winters in power systems.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
MDPI, 2023. Vol. 16, no 14, article id 5575
Keywords [en]
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), electrical power and energy systems, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA), weakening, winter temperatures
National Category
Climate Research
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-212753DOI: 10.3390/en16145575ISI: 001036043700001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85166299968OAI: oai:DiVA.org:umu-212753DiVA, id: diva2:1787140
Funder
The Kempe Foundations, JCK22-0025Available from: 2023-08-11 Created: 2023-08-11 Last updated: 2023-08-28Bibliographically approved

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Mohammadi, YounesPalstev, AlekseyKhodadad, Davood

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