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Valid causal inference with unobserved confounding in high-dimensional settings
Umeå universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Handelshögskolan vid Umeå universitet, Statistik.ORCID-id: 0000-0001-5442-9708
Umeå universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Handelshögskolan vid Umeå universitet, Statistik.ORCID-id: 0000-0003-2135-9963
Umeå universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Handelshögskolan vid Umeå universitet, Statistik.ORCID-id: 0000-0003-3187-1987
2025 (engelsk)Inngår i: Journal of Causal Inference, ISSN 2193-3677, E-ISSN 2193-3685, Vol. 13, nr 1, artikkel-id 20230069Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert) Published
Abstract [en]

Various methods have recently been proposed to estimate causal effects with confidence intervals that are uniformly valid over a set of data-generating processes when high-dimensional nuisance models are estimated by post-model-selection or machine learning estimators. These methods typically require that all the confounders are observed to ensure identification of the effects. We contribute by showing how valid semiparametric inference can be obtained in the presence of unobserved confounders and high-dimensional nuisance models. We propose uncertainty intervals that allow for unobserved confounding, and show that the resulting inference is valid when the amount of unobserved confounding is not arbitrarily large; the latter is formalized in terms of convergence rates. Simulation experiments illustrate the finite sample properties of the proposed intervals. Finally, a case study on the effect of smoking during pregnancy on birth weight is used to illustrate the use of the methods introduced to perform an informed sensitivity analysis to the presence of unobserved confounding.

sted, utgiver, år, opplag, sider
Walter de Gruyter, 2025. Vol. 13, nr 1, artikkel-id 20230069
Emneord [en]
average causal effect, double robust estimator, inverse probability weighting, sensitivity analysis
HSV kategori
Identifikatorer
URN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-244120DOI: 10.1515/jci-2023-0069ISI: 001573911500001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-105020479193OAI: oai:DiVA.org:umu-244120DiVA, id: diva2:1997594
Forskningsfinansiär
Marianne and Marcus Wallenberg FoundationForte, Swedish Research Council for Health, Working Life and WelfareTilgjengelig fra: 2025-09-12 Laget: 2025-09-12 Sist oppdatert: 2025-11-21bibliografisk kontrollert

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