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Background: While assessment tools can increase the detection of cognitive impairment, there is currently insufficient evidence regarding clinical outcomes based on screening for cognitive impairment in older adults.

Methods: The study purpose was to investigate whether Timed Up and Go dual-task test (TUGdt) results, based on TUG combined with two different verbal tasks (name different animals, TUGdt-NA, and recite months in reverse order, TUGdt-MB), predicted dementia incidence over a period of five years among patients (N = 186, mean = 70.7 years; 45.7% female) diagnosed with Subjective Cognitive Impairment (SCI) and Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) following assessment at two memory clinics. Associations between TUG parameters and dementia incidence were examined in Cox regression models.

Results: During follow-up time (median (range) 3.7 (0.1–6.1) years) 98 participants converted to dementia. Novel findings indicated that the TUGdt parameter words/time, after adjustment for age, gender, and education, can be used for the prediction of conversion to dementia in participants with SCI or MCI over a period of five years. Among the TUG-related parameters investigated, words/time showed the best predictive capacity, while time scores of TUG and TUGdt as well as TUGdt cost did not produce significant predictive results. Results further showed that the step parameter step length during TUGdt predicts conversion to dementia before adjustment for age, gender, and education. Optimal TUGdt cutoffs for predicting dementia at 2- and 4-year follow-up based on words/time were calculated. The sensitivity of the TUGdt cutoffs was high at 2-year follow-up: TUGdt-NA words/time, 0.79; TUGdt-MB words/time, 0.71; reducing respectively to 0.64 and 0.65 at 4-year follow-up.

Conclusions: TUGdt words/time parameters have potential as cost-efficient tools for conversion-to-dementia risk assessment, useful for research and clinical purposes. These parameters may be able to bridge the gap of insufficient evidence for such clinical outcomes.

Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT05893524: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT05893524?id=NCT05893524&rank=1 .