Umeå University's logo

umu.sePublications
Change search
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
Optimizing social and economic activity while containing SARS-CoV-2 transmission using DAEDALUS
MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis & WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling, Jameel Institute, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.
Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics. MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis & WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling, Jameel Institute, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-1377-9469
MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis & WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling, Jameel Institute, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.
MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis & WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling, Jameel Institute, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.
Show others and affiliations
2022 (English)In: Nature Computational Science, E-ISSN 2662-8457, Vol. 2, no 4, p. 223-233Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

To study the trade-off between economic, social and health outcomes in the management of a pandemic, DAEDALUS integrates a dynamic epidemiological model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission with a multi-sector economic model, reflecting sectoral heterogeneity in transmission and complex supply chains. The model identifies mitigation strategies that optimize economic production while constraining infections so that hospital capacity is not exceeded but allowing essential services, including much of the education sector, to remain active. The model differentiates closures by economic sector, keeping those sectors open that contribute little to transmission but much to economic output and those that produce essential services as intermediate or final consumption products. In an illustrative application to 63 sectors in the United Kingdom, the model achieves an economic gain of between £161 billion (24%) and £193 billion (29%) compared to a blanket lockdown of non-essential activities over six months. Although it has been designed for SARS-CoV-2, DAEDALUS is sufficiently flexible to be applicable to pandemics with different epidemiological characteristics.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2022. Vol. 2, no 4, p. 223-233
National Category
Infectious Medicine
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-194535DOI: 10.1038/s43588-022-00233-0ISI: 000888206900011Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85128882489OAI: oai:DiVA.org:umu-194535DiVA, id: diva2:1657171
Available from: 2022-05-10 Created: 2022-05-10 Last updated: 2023-09-05Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

No full text in DiVA

Other links

Publisher's full textScopus

Authority records

Forchini, Giovanni

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
Forchini, Giovanni
By organisation
Economics
Infectious Medicine

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar

doi
urn-nbn

Altmetric score

doi
urn-nbn
Total: 296 hits
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf