Umeå University's logo

umu.sePublications
Change search
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
A joint Bayesian spatiotemporal risk prediction model of COVID-19 incidence, IC admission, and death with application to Sweden
Faculty of Spatial Sciences, University of Groningen, Groningen, Netherlands.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-1391-4138
Faculty of Spatial Sciences, University of Groningen, Groningen, Netherlands; Statistics Department, Padjadjaran University, Bandung, Indonesia.
Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Regional Science (CERUM).ORCID iD: 0000-0002-7905-1825
2024 (English)In: The annals of regional science, ISSN 0570-1864, E-ISSN 1432-0592, Vol. 72, p. 107-140Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The three closely related COVID-19 outcomes of incidence, intensive care (IC) admission and death, are commonly modelled separately leading to biased estimation of the parameters and relatively poor forecasts. This paper presents a joint spatiotemporal model of the three outcomes based on weekly data that is used for risk prediction and identification of hotspots. The paper applies a pure spatiotemporal model consisting of structured and unstructured spatial and temporal effects and their interaction capturing the effects of the unobserved covariates. The pure spatiotemporal model limits the data requirements to the three outcomes and the population at risk per spatiotemporal unit. The empirical study for the 21 Swedish regions for the period 1 January 2020–4 May 2021 confirms that the joint model predictions outperform the separate model predictions. The fifteen-week-ahead spatiotemporal forecasts (5 May–11 August 2021) show a significant decline in the relative risk of COVID-19 incidence, IC admission, death and number of hotspots.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer, 2024. Vol. 72, p. 107-140
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics Economics
Research subject
Statistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-201307DOI: 10.1007/s00168-022-01191-1ISI: 000889414600002PubMedID: 36465998Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85142866490OAI: oai:DiVA.org:umu-201307DiVA, id: diva2:1714224
Funder
Public Health Agency of Sweden Available from: 2022-11-29 Created: 2022-11-29 Last updated: 2024-04-26Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

fulltext(3734 kB)48 downloads
File information
File name FULLTEXT02.pdfFile size 3734 kBChecksum SHA-512
3b91ad0bc0fb175cc03595148a1013600c61519674a55a47830a665d9f4aafc816587a63e22760679f17e6d5c7a3c9f8f4f51c1dcd3c455688a58831dfd8c097
Type fulltextMimetype application/pdf

Other links

Publisher's full textPubMedScopus

Authority records

Lundberg, Johan

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
Jaya, I Gede Nyoman MindraLundberg, Johan
By organisation
Centre for Regional Science (CERUM)
In the same journal
The annals of regional science
Probability Theory and StatisticsEconomics

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar
Total: 215 downloads
The number of downloads is the sum of all downloads of full texts. It may include eg previous versions that are now no longer available

doi
pubmed
urn-nbn

Altmetric score

doi
pubmed
urn-nbn
Total: 307 hits
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf