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Optimal national prioritization policies for hospital care during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic
MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom; Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.
Department of Analytics, Marketing and Operations, Imperial College Business School, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.
The Health Foundation, London, United Kingdom.
MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom; Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.
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2021 (English)In: Nature Computational Science, E-ISSN 2662-8457, Vol. 1, no 8, p. 521-531Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

In response to unprecedented surges in the demand for hospital care during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, health systems have prioritized patients with COVID-19 to life-saving hospital care to the detriment of other patients. In contrast to these ad hoc policies, we develop a linear programming framework to optimally schedule elective procedures and allocate hospital beds among all planned and emergency patients to minimize years of life lost. Leveraging a large dataset of administrative patient medical records, we apply our framework to the National Health Service in England and show that an extra 50,750–5,891,608 years of life can be gained compared with prioritization policies that reflect those implemented during the pandemic. Notable health gains are observed for neoplasms, diseases of the digestive system, and injuries and poisoning. Our open-source framework provides a computationally efficient approximation of a large-scale discrete optimization problem that can be applied globally to support national-level care prioritization policies.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer Nature, 2021. Vol. 1, no 8, p. 521-531
National Category
Health Care Service and Management, Health Policy and Services and Health Economy
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URN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-202957DOI: 10.1038/s43588-021-00111-1ISI: 000888560300008Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85115015893OAI: oai:DiVA.org:umu-202957DiVA, id: diva2:1727026
Funder
The Jan Wallander and Tom Hedelius FoundationTore Browaldhs stiftelseWellcome trust, 102169/Z/13/ZAvailable from: 2023-01-14 Created: 2023-01-14 Last updated: 2023-01-14Bibliographically approved

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Forchini, Giovanni

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