Umeå University's logo

Objectives: To estimate the expected socio-economic value of booster vaccination in terms of averted deaths and averted closures of businesses and schools using simulation modelling.

Methods: The value of booster vaccination in Indonesia is estimated by comparing simulated societal costs under a twelve-month, 187-million–dose Moderna booster vaccination campaign to costs without boosters. The costs of an epidemic and its mitigation consist of lost lives, economic closures and lost education; cost-minimising non-pharmaceutical mitigation is chosen for each scenario.

Results: The cost-minimising non-pharmaceutical mitigation depends on the availability of vaccines: the differences between the two scenarios are 14 to 19 million years of in-person education and $153 to $204 billion in economic activity. The value of the booster campaign ranges from $2,500 ($1,400-$4,100) to $2,800 ($1,700-$4,600) per dose in the first year, depending on life-year valuations.

Conclusions: The societal benefits of booster vaccination are substantial. Much of the value of vaccination resides in the reduced need for costly non-pharmaceutical mitigation. We propose cost minimisation as a tool for policy decision-making and valuation of vaccination, taking into account all socio-economic costs, and not averted deaths alone.