Umeå University's logo

umu.sePublications
Change search
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
Regularised semi-parametric composite likelihood intensity modelling of a Swedish spatial ambulance call point pattern
Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Mathematics and Mathematical Statistics. Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Auburn University, AL, Auburn, United States.
Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Mathematics and Mathematical Statistics.
Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Mathematics and Mathematical Statistics.
Department of Mathematical Sciences, Chalmers University of Technology and University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden; School of Public Health and Community Medicine, Institute of Medicine, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden.
2023 (English)In: Journal of Agricultural Biological and Environmental Statistics, ISSN 1085-7117, E-ISSN 1537-2693, Vol. 28, no 4, p. 664-683Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Motivated by the development of optimal dispatching strategies for prehospital resources, we model the spatial distribution of ambulance call events in the Swedish municipality Skellefteå during 2014–2018 in order to identify important spatial covariates and discern hotspot regions. Our large-scale multivariate data point pattern of call events consists of spatial locations and marks containing the associated priority levels and sex labels. The covariates used are related to road network coverage, population density, and socio-economic status. For each marginal point pattern, we model the associated intensity function by means of a log-linear function of the covariates and their interaction terms, in combination with lasso-like elastic-net regularized composite/Poisson process likelihood estimation. This enables variable selection and collinearity adjustment as well as reduction of variance inflation from overfitting and bias from underfitting. To incorporate mobility adjustment, reflecting people’s movement patterns, we also include a nonparametric (kernel) intensity estimate as an additional covariate. The kernel intensity estimation performed here exploits a new heuristic bandwidth selection algorithm. We discover that hotspot regions occur along dense parts of the road network. A mean absolute error evaluation of the fitted model indicates that it is suitable for designing prehospital resource dispatching strategies. Supplementary materials accompanying this paper appear online.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer, 2023. Vol. 28, no 4, p. 664-683
Keywords [en]
Bandwidth selection, Cyclic coordinate descent algorithm, Emergency alarm, Inhomogeneous Poisson process, Lasso-like elastic-net, Multivariate point process
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-206937DOI: 10.1007/s13253-023-00534-5ISI: 000981152000001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85152546695OAI: oai:DiVA.org:umu-206937DiVA, id: diva2:1753629
Funder
Vinnova, 2018-00422Region VästerbottenNorrbotten County CouncilRegion VästernorrlandRegion Jämtland HärjedalenAvailable from: 2023-04-28 Created: 2023-04-28 Last updated: 2024-01-05Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

fulltext(2505 kB)26 downloads
File information
File name FULLTEXT02.pdfFile size 2505 kBChecksum SHA-512
ad3aee8c0646777ccff8856b95d3c38bbe285ad6918498e0e813f0107ed90c2cbfc32e7c4014d76d3964b1f8a57b6cd3c2a97292eb563feb0fa2812a02246fc7
Type fulltextMimetype application/pdf

Other links

Publisher's full textScopus

Authority records

Bayisa, FekaduÅdahl, MarkusRydén, Patrik

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
Bayisa, FekaduÅdahl, MarkusRydén, Patrik
By organisation
Department of Mathematics and Mathematical Statistics
In the same journal
Journal of Agricultural Biological and Environmental Statistics
Probability Theory and Statistics

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar
Total: 72 downloads
The number of downloads is the sum of all downloads of full texts. It may include eg previous versions that are now no longer available

doi
urn-nbn

Altmetric score

doi
urn-nbn
Total: 272 hits
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf