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Prediction of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) after bariatric surgery using regularized linear regression models: results from a Swedish nationwide quality register
Umeå University, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Epidemiology and Global Health.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-5948-3025
Department of Surgery, Faculty of Medicine and Health, Örebro University, Örebro, Sweden.
Umeå University, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Epidemiology and Global Health.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-1633-2179
Umeå University, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Epidemiology and Global Health.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-3975-4868
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2023 (English)In: Obesity Surgery, ISSN 0960-8923, E-ISSN 1708-0428, Vol. 33, no 8, p. 2452-2462Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Purpose: To investigate whether the quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) of the patients who underwent bariatric surgery could be predicted using their baseline information.

Materials and Methods: All patients who received bariatric surgery in Sweden between January 1, 2011 and March 31, 2019 were obtained from the Scandinavian Obesity Surgery Registry (SOReg). Baseline information included patients' sociodemographic characteristics, details regarding the procedure, and postsurgical conditions. QALYs were assessed by the SF-6D at follow-up years 1 and 2. The general and regularized linear regression models were used to predict postoperative QALYs.

Results: All regression models demonstrated satisfactory and comparable performance in predicting QALYs at follow-up year 1, with R2 and relative root mean squared error (RRMSE) values of about 0.57 and 9.6%, respectively. The performance of the general linear regression model increased with the number of variables; however, the improvement was ignorable when the number of variables was more than 30 and 50 for follow-up years 1 and 2, respectively. Although minor L1 and L2 regularization provided better prediction ability, the improvement was negligible when the number of variables was more than 20. All the models showed poorer performance for predicting QALYs at follow-up year 2.

Conclusions: Patient characteristics before bariatric surgery including health related quality of life, age, sex, BMI, postoperative complications within six weeks, and smoking status, may be adequate in predicting their postoperative QALYs after one year. Understanding these factors can help identify individuals who require more personalized and intensive support before, during, and after surgery. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer, 2023. Vol. 33, no 8, p. 2452-2462
Keywords [en]
Bariatric surgery, Prediction, Quality-adjusted life years, Real-world data, SF-6D
National Category
Surgery
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-210892DOI: 10.1007/s11695-023-06685-1ISI: 001013018400001PubMedID: 37322243Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85161825147OAI: oai:DiVA.org:umu-210892DiVA, id: diva2:1776841
Funder
Forte, Swedish Research Council for Health, Working Life and Welfare, 2018–00896Available from: 2023-06-28 Created: 2023-06-28 Last updated: 2024-02-08Bibliographically approved

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Sun, SunLindholm, LarsSahlen, Klas-GöranFranklin, Karl A.

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