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Background and aims: Studies on the influence of fasting plasma glucose (FPG) on the development of carotid plaque (CP) and intima media thickness (CIMT) mainly focused on single FPG measures. We investigated whether changes in FPG (ΔFPG) are associated with incident CP and CIMT change (ΔCIMT) over time.

Methods: Analyses were based on information from 1896 participants from the VIPVIZA trial (Visualization of asymptomatic atherosclerotic disease for optimum cardiovascular prevention), with baseline and 3-year follow-up data on FPG, ultrasonographic CP (none or ≥1 lesion/s) and CIMT assessments. We studied the association between baseline FPG (prior to intervention) or 3-year ΔFPG (mmol/L) and incident CP (logistic regression) or ΔCIMT (linear regression). Analyses were adjusted for multiple potential confounders.

Results: 1896 and 873 individuals, respectively, were included in the analysis on incident CP and ΔCIMT. Participants were 60 years old at baseline and 61% and 54% were females, in the CP and CIMT analyses, respectively. Every mmol/L increase in FPG was associated with an increased odds of incident CP (odds ratio: 1.42, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.17, 1.73), but there was no association with ΔCIMT (mean difference: 0.002 mm, 95% CI: −0.003, 0.008) after 3 years. Baseline FPG was not associated with incident CP nor ΔCIMT progression.

Conclusions: In middle-aged individuals with low to moderate risk for cardiovascular diseases, 3-year ΔFPG was positively associated with the risk of incident CP, but not with ΔCIMT. Single measures of FPG may not be sufficient in estimating cardiovascular risk among individuals with low to moderate risk.