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Aims: This longitudinal study investigated the prevalence of and risk factors for loneliness among older new informal caregivers, long-term informal caregivers, former informal caregivers and non-caregivers in selected regions of Finland and Sweden over 5 years.

Methods: A longitudinal sample of 5083 respondents from the Gerontological Regional Database (GERDA) survey data in 2016 and 2021 was used. Bivariate correlation tests and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed.

Results: Loneliness prevalence rates varied between 6% and 8% in 2016 and increased in all groups, although not significantly among new informal caregivers. In 2021, the prevalence of loneliness varied between 8% and 14%. Among the baseline variables, reporting loneliness, single/unmarried/bereaved civil status, infrequent contact with friends and neighbours, poor self-rated health, depressive symptoms, living in Finland and financial strain increased the likelihood of reporting loneliness in 2021. Among the change variables, being a long-term caregiver, a negative change in civil status, a reduced number of confidants, a negative change in self-rated health and depressive symptoms increased the likelihood of reporting loneliness.

Conclusions: Loneliness increased among all four groups of comparison. Being a long-term caregiver was a significant risk factor for reporting loneliness over time (odds ratio 2.00, 95% confidence interval 1.20–3.35), when controlling for several other social and health-related variables. To develop effective support, future research could address risk factors for loneliness among distinct groups of informal caregivers based on whether the care recipients have neurological or functional health limitations and examine the availability of support measures.