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Objective: Idiopathic normal pressure hydrocephalus (INPH) is a treatable neurological condition, yet predicting which patients will benefit from a cerebrospinal fluid shunt remains challenging. Structural brain MRI is a core part of the diagnostic workup, but traditional radiological measures show limited predictive accuracy. This study aimed to assess whether deep learning and radiomics-based machine learning approaches can provide clinically useful predictions of shunt outcome based on preoperative MRI.

Methods: We investigated 149 shunted INPH patients with available preoperative T1-weighted, T2-weighted, and FLAIR images. Patients were classified as responders (n = 113) or non-responders (n = 36) based on postoperative gait speed improvement. For INPH, this is a large sample with typical outcome distribution. Three artificial intelligence approaches were tested: a late-fusion ensemble of multiple 3D convolutional neural networks; a multimodal intermediate fusion model; and radiomics-based machine learning models trained on features extracted from whole-brain masks. Models were assessed using 10-fold cross-validation. The best performing model on the validation set was selected from each approach. Performance metrics included the area under the receiving operating characteristic curve (AUROC), sensitivity, and specificity.

Results: Performance was considered poor in all models, and none reached an area under the receiving operating characteristic curve above 70%. Of the three methodologies, the best performance was achieved with a radiomics-based model (Linear Discriminant Analysis classifier on T1-weighted images) which achieved an AUROC of 63.7%. In a reduced subset of clearly separated responders and non-responders (n = 72), the best model (late fusion ensemble of 5 convolutional neural networks) reached an AUROC of 69.2%.

Conclusions: Despite the use of advanced artificial intelligence techniques, structural MRI alone were insufficient for reliably predicting gait outcome after surgery in idiopathic normal pressure hydrocephalus. To capture the complexity of the condition and enable clinically meaningful predictions, our findings indicate the need for research investigating multimodal input and using large multi-center datasets.