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Multivariate linear regression modelling of lung weight in 24,056 Swedish medico-legal autopsy cases
Umeå University, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Community Medicine and Rehabilitation, Forensic Medicine.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-3509-1654
Umeå University, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Community Medicine and Rehabilitation, Forensic Medicine.
2017 (English)In: Journal of Forensic and Legal Medicine, ISSN 1752-928X, E-ISSN 1878-7487, Vol. 46, p. 20-22Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Heavy combined lung weight at autopsy is a non-specific autopsy finding associated with certain causes of death such as intoxication. There is however no clear definition of what constitutes "heavy" lung weight. Different reference values have been suggested but previous studies have been limited by small select populations and only univariate regression has been attempted. The aim of this study was to create a model to estimate lung weight from decedent parameters. We identified all cases >18 years age autopsied at the Swedish National Board of Forensic Medicine from 2000 through 2013, excluding cases with a post-mortem interval >5 days as well as cases with extreme values, totalling 24,056 cases. We analysed body weight, body height, sex, age, BMI, BSA as well as untransformed and transformed lung weight. The analysis was stratified for sex. We evaluated the fit of the models and that the model assumptions were not violated. We set out to apply the model with the highest residual sum of squares to derive limits for heavy lungs. In univariate regression BSA and height showed best performance. The final model included height, weight and age group. After excluding large standardized residuals (>3, <-3) the final model achieved R-2 of 0.132 and 0.106 for women and men respectively. While we managed to create a multivariate model its performance was poor, possibly a fact reflective of the physiological nature of the lungs and in turn its variability in fluid content. Linear regression is a poor model for estimating lung weight in an unselected population.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2017. Vol. 46, p. 20-22
Keywords [en]
Lungs, Autopsy, Weight, Linear regression
National Category
Forensic Science
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-133445DOI: 10.1016/j.jflm.2016.12.001ISI: 000397021900004PubMedID: 28040667Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85007489246OAI: oai:DiVA.org:umu-133445DiVA, id: diva2:1088662
Available from: 2017-04-13 Created: 2017-04-13 Last updated: 2024-07-02Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. An epidemiological perspective on heart and lung weight in cardiac and intoxication deaths
Open this publication in new window or tab >>An epidemiological perspective on heart and lung weight in cardiac and intoxication deaths
2022 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

The main purpose of a medico-legal autopsy is to determine the cause and manner of death. A forensic pathologist makes assessments of this using several sources of information, one of which is the discrepancy between measured organ weight and reference values. Of particular interest is the heart weight in heart disease and the weight of the lungs in fatal intoxications. 

In this thesis, a linear model of lung weight was created, but the model could at best explain only 13% of the variation in combined lung weight (Paper I). Unsurprisingly, this meant that the model was a poor definition of “normal” lung weight and could not be used to identify intoxication cases (Paper II). A ratio of lung weight to heart weight (LWHW ratio) also failed to differentiate intoxication cases from controls. The poor performance of these methods could plausibly have been due to fatal intoxications with only some substances being associated with increased lung weight, but an analysis showed that many common intoxicants were associated with heavier lungs than hanging deaths (Paper III). 

To establish heart weight references more applicable in a medico-legal autopsy population, a model of heart weight accounting for undiagnosed cardiac hypertrophy was created (Paper IV). The model showed that for a decedent of average the evidence that a was hypertrophic reached, substantial support at around 470 g.

In conclusion, a definition of “heavy lungs” remains elusive. However, it seems to be a finding compatible with fatal intoxications with many substances and the low predictive value found may be due to study design. The heart weight model presented allows pathologists to assess the evidence of cardiac hypertrophy more easily than previously published models.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Umeå: Umeå universitet, 2022. p. 51
Series
Umeå University medical dissertations, ISSN 0346-6612 ; 2196
Keywords
heart weight, lung weight, organ weight, autopsy, forensic pathology, Bayesian analysis, cardiac hypertrophy, fatal intoxication
National Category
Forensic Science
Research subject
Forensic Medicine
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-200631 (URN)978-91-7855-844-5 (ISBN)978-91-7855-845-2 (ISBN)
Public defence
2022-11-25, Aula Anatomica, Biologihuset, Umeå, 13:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2022-11-04 Created: 2022-10-27 Last updated: 2024-07-02Bibliographically approved

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Gustafsson, TorfinnEriksson, Anders

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