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Essays on military labour supply in the era of voluntary recruitment
Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics.
2020 (English)Licentiate thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

This thesis consists of an introductory part and two self-contained chapters related to the supply of volunteers to the Swedish Armed Forces.

Chapter [I] represents the first effort to explore the relationship between civilian labour market conditions and the supply of labour to the military in the all-volunteer environment that Sweden entered after the abolishment of the peacetime draft in 2010. The effect of civilian unemployment on the rate of applications from individuals aged 18 to 25 to initiate basic military training is investigated using panel data on Swedish counties for the years 2011 through 2015. A linear fixed-effects model is estimated to investigate the relationship, while controlling for a range of socio-demographic covariates and unobserved heterogeneity on the regional level, as well as aggregate trends on the national level. The results indicate a positive and statistically significant relationship between the unemployment rate and the application rate. The results are robust to non-linear form specifications, as well as allowing the civilian unemployment rate to be endogenous. As such, the results suggest that the civilian labour market environment in Sweden can give rise to non-trivial fluctuations in the supply of applications to initiate basic military training within the Swedish Armed Forces.

Chapter [II] studies how local labour market conditions influence the quality composition of those who volunteer for military service in Sweden. A fixed-effects regression model is estimated on a panel data set containing IQ scores for those who applied for military basic training across Swedish municipalities during the period 2010 to 2016. The main finding is that low civilian employment rates at the local level tend to increase the mean IQ score of those who volunteer for military service, whereas the opposite is true if employment rates in the civilian labour market move in a more favourable direction. As such, the results suggest that the negative impact of a strong civilian economy on recruitment volumes is reinforced by a deterioration in recruit quality.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Umeå: Umeå universitet , 2020. , p. 6
Series
Umeå economic studies, ISSN 0348-1018 ; 965
Keywords [en]
conscription, enlistment test, fixed effects model, military labour market, military labour supply, military recruitment, recruitment, Roy model, self-selection
National Category
Economics
Research subject
Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-167166ISBN: 9789178551545 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:umu-167166DiVA, id: diva2:1384641
Presentation
2020-01-31, S 213h, Samhällsvetarhuset, Umeå, 11:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2020-01-15 Created: 2020-01-10 Last updated: 2020-08-17Bibliographically approved
List of papers
1. Are economic upturns bad for military recruitment?: A study on Swedish regional data 2011–2015
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Are economic upturns bad for military recruitment?: A study on Swedish regional data 2011–2015
2019 (English)In: Defence and Peace Economics, ISSN 1024-2694, E-ISSN 1476-8267, Vol. 30, no 7, p. 813-829Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This paper represents the first effort to explore the relationship between civilian labour market conditions and the supply of labour to the military in the all-volunteer environment that Sweden entered after the abolishment of the peacetime draft in 2010. The paper investigates the effect of civilian unemployment on the rate of applications from individuals aged 18–25 to initiate basic military training, using panel data on Swedish counties for the period 2011–2015. A linear fixed-effects model is estimated to investigate the relationship, while controlling for a range of socio-demographic covariates, unobserved heterogeneity on the regional level, as well as aggregate trends on the national level. The results of the panel-data analysis indicate that the unemployment rate has a positive and statistically significant effect on the application rate. These results are robust to non-linear form specifications, as well as allowing the civilian unemployment rate to be endogenous. As such, the results suggest that the civilian labour market environment in Sweden can give rise to non-trivial fluctuations in the supply of applications to initiate basic military training within the Swedish Armed Forces.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Routledge, 2019
Keywords
Military labour supply, Military labour market, Recruitment, Fixed effects model, Conscription
National Category
Economics
Research subject
Economics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-156476 (URN)10.1080/10242694.2018.1522572 (DOI)000496043400004 ()2-s2.0-85053770733 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2019-02-18 Created: 2019-02-18 Last updated: 2023-06-21Bibliographically approved
2. Self-Selection and Recruit Quality in Sweden's All Volunteer Force: Do Civilian Opportunities Matter?
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Self-Selection and Recruit Quality in Sweden's All Volunteer Force: Do Civilian Opportunities Matter?
2019 (English)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

This paper studies how local labour market conditions influence the quality composition of those who volunteer for military service in Sweden. A fixed-effects regression model is estimated on a panel data set containing IQ scores for those who applied for military basic training across Swedish municipalities during the period 2010 to 2016. The main finding is that low civilian employment rates at the local level tend to increase the mean IQ score of those who volunteer for military service, whereas the opposite is true if employment rates in the civilian labour market move in a more favourable direction. As such, the results suggest that the negative impact of a strong civilian economy on recruitment volumes is reinforced by a deterioration in recruit quality.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Umeå: Department of Economics, Umeå University, 2019. p. 32
Series
Umeå economic studies, ISSN 0348-1018 ; 964
Keywords
military labour market, military recruitment, self-selection, enlistment test, Roy model
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-165436 (URN)
Available from: 2019-11-26 Created: 2019-11-26 Last updated: 2020-01-15Bibliographically approved

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Citation style
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