Umeå universitets logga

umu.sePublikationer
Ändra sökning
RefereraExporteraLänk till posten
Permanent länk

Direktlänk
Referera
Referensformat
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Annat format
Fler format
Språk
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Annat språk
Fler språk
Utmatningsformat
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
COVID-19 outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship: estimating the epidemic potential and effectiveness of public health countermeasures
Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för folkhälsa och klinisk medicin, Avdelningen för hållbar hälsa.ORCID-id: 0000-0003-4030-0449
Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för folkhälsa och klinisk medicin, Avdelningen för hållbar hälsa.
Umeå universitet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för epidemiologi och global hälsa. Department of Disease Control, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, UK; Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, University of Heidelberg, Germany.
2020 (Engelska)Ingår i: Journal of Travel Medicine, ISSN 1195-1982, E-ISSN 1708-8305, Vol. 27, nr 3, artikel-id taaa030Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat) Published
Abstract [en]

BACKGROUND: Cruise ships carry a large number of people in confined spaces with relative homogeneous mixing. On 3 February, 2020, an outbreak of COVID-19 on cruise ship Diamond Princess was reported with 10 initial cases, following an index case on board around 21-25 January. By 4 February, public health measures such as removal and isolation of ill passengers and quarantine of non-ill passengers were implemented. By 20 February, 619 of 3,700 passengers and crew (17%) were tested positive.

METHODS: We estimated the basic reproduction number from the initial period of the outbreak using (SEIR) models. We calibrated the models with transient functions of countermeasures to incidence data. We additionally estimated a counterfactual scenario in absence of countermeasures, and established a model stratified by crew and guests to study the impact of differential contact rates among the groups. We also compared scenarios of an earlier versus later evacuation of the ship.

RESULTS: The basic reproduction rate was initially 4 times higher on-board compared to the ${R}_0$ in the epicentre in Wuhan, but the countermeasures lowered it substantially. Based on the modeled initial ${R}_0$ of 14.8, we estimated that without any interventions within the time period of 21 January to 19 February, 2920 out of the 3700 (79%) would have been infected. Isolation and quarantine therefore prevented 2307 cases, and lowered the ${R}_0$ to 1.78. We showed that an early evacuation of all passengers on 3 February would have been associated with 76 infected persons in their incubation time.

CONCLUSIONS: The cruise ship conditions clearly amplified an already highly transmissible disease. The public health measures prevented more than 2000 additional cases compared to no interventions. However, evacuating all passengers and crew early on in the outbreak would have prevented many more passengers and crew from infection.

Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
Oxford University Press, 2020. Vol. 27, nr 3, artikel-id taaa030
Nyckelord [en]
SARS-CoV-2, basic reproduction number, coronavirus, evacuation, incubation time, isolation and quarantine
Nationell ämneskategori
Folkhälsovetenskap, global hälsa, socialmedicin och epidemiologi
Identifikatorer
URN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-168517DOI: 10.1093/jtm/taaa030ISI: 000537521800004PubMedID: 32109273Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85083067553OAI: oai:DiVA.org:umu-168517DiVA, id: diva2:1410813
Tillgänglig från: 2020-03-02 Skapad: 2020-03-02 Senast uppdaterad: 2020-07-01Bibliografiskt granskad

Open Access i DiVA

fulltext(1125 kB)173 nedladdningar
Filinformation
Filnamn FULLTEXT02.pdfFilstorlek 1125 kBChecksumma SHA-512
43bb0905d7034b2601b63d6411c9d076f770ab7cb31fdfd5bbc7b0a394edf232d4461cda56e31ddb5caed4380edee42723e2970d59fde18d63edfcf27165ce49
Typ fulltextMimetyp application/pdf

Övriga länkar

Förlagets fulltextPubMedScopus

Person

Rocklöv, JoacimSjödin, HenrikWilder-Smith, Annelies

Sök vidare i DiVA

Av författaren/redaktören
Rocklöv, JoacimSjödin, HenrikWilder-Smith, Annelies
Av organisationen
Avdelningen för hållbar hälsaInstitutionen för epidemiologi och global hälsa
I samma tidskrift
Journal of Travel Medicine
Folkhälsovetenskap, global hälsa, socialmedicin och epidemiologi

Sök vidare utanför DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar
Totalt: 1970 nedladdningar
Antalet nedladdningar är summan av nedladdningar för alla fulltexter. Det kan inkludera t.ex tidigare versioner som nu inte längre är tillgängliga.

doi
pubmed
urn-nbn

Altmetricpoäng

doi
pubmed
urn-nbn
Totalt: 10231 träffar
RefereraExporteraLänk till posten
Permanent länk

Direktlänk
Referera
Referensformat
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Annat format
Fler format
Språk
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Annat språk
Fler språk
Utmatningsformat
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf